Use of Statistical Models to Analyze Periodic Seismicity Observed for Clusters in the Kanto Region, Central Japan

—A periodic pattern of seismicity has been reported for the Kinugawa cluster in the Kanto region, where several earthquake clusters are observed at depths between 40 and 90 km. To analyze this periodicity, statistical studies are performed for the Kinugawa cluster together with eight other clusters. Hypocentral parameters of the earthquakes with magnitudes 4.5 and larger for the period between 1950 and 1995 are taken from the JMA catalogue. The simple sinusoidal function, the exponential of sinusoidal function and the stress release model are applied as the intensity function. Model parameters are determined by the maximum likelihood method and the best model for each cluster is selected by using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In six cases the sinusoidal model or the exponential of the sinusoidal model is selected as the best option and achieves AIC reductions of values between 2.4 and 13.2 units from the simple Poisson model. The stress release model is selected for two clusters. The three clusters, the Kinugawa, Kasumigaura, and Choshi clusters, have a similar optimal period of about 10 years, and align in the northwest–southeast direction at a similar depth range of 40 to 70 km. A model modified from the stress release model is applied to the three clusters so to analyze the relationship among them. In the modified model, an earthquake occurrence in one zone increases the stress in the other zone, which is different from the original stress release model which assumes a linear increase with time. Applying the modified model to the Kinugawa cluster, an AIC reduction from the Poisson model is significantly larger than the value obtained with the sinusoidal model. This suggests that the periodic seismicity observed for the Kinugawa cluster can be explained with the more comprehensive model than the sinusoidal model.     

Paleoseismological evidence for non-characteristic behavior of surface rupture associated with the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake, central Japan

The 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake sequence (mainshock magnitude, M_JMA 6.8), which occurred in an active fold-and-thrust belt in northern central Japan, generated a small thrust surface rupture (< 20 cm of vertical displacement) along a previously unmapped northern extension of the active Muikamachi–Bonchi–Seien fault zone, on the eastern margin of the epicentral region. To better understand past seismic behavior of the rupture, we conducted a paleoseismic trenching study across the 10-cm-high west-side-up surface rupture at the foot of a pre-existing 1.8-m-high east-facing scarp, which probably resulted from past earthquake(s). A well-defined west-dipping thrust fault zone accompanied by drag folding and displacing the upper Pliocene to lower Pleistocene strata and the unconformably overlying upper Pleistocene (?) to Holocene strata was exposed. The principal fault zone is connected directly to the 2004 surface rupture. From the deformational characteristics of the strata and radiocarbon dating, we inferred that two large paleoseismic events occurred during the past 9000 years prior to the 2004 event. These two pre-2004 events have a nearly identical fault slip (at minimum, 1.5 m), which is ≥ 15 times that of the 2004 event (∼ 10 cm). These paleoseismic data, coupled with the geological and geomorphological features, suggest that the 2004 event represented non-characteristic behavior of the fault, which can potentially generate a more destructive earthquake accompanied by meter-scale surface displacement. This study provides insight into the interpretation of past faulting events and increases our understanding of rupture behavior.     

Hypernovae and Gamma-Ray Bursts

The nature of very energetic supernovae (hypernovae) is discussed. They are the explosive death of stars more massive than ~20–25M _⊙, probably linked to the enigmatic Gamma-Ray Bursts. The optical properties of hypernovae indicate that they are significantly aspherical. Synthetic light curves and late-phase spectra of aspherical supernova/hypernova models are presented. These models can account for the optical observations of SNe 1998bw and 2002ap. The abundance patterns of hypernovae are characterized by large ratios (Zn, Co)/Fe and small ratios (Mn, Cr)/Fe, indicating a significant contribution of hypernovae to the early Galactic chemical evolution.     

Horizontal distribution and population dynamics of the dominant mysid Hyperacanthomysis longirostris along a temperate macrotidal estuary (Chikugo River estuary, Japan)

The estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) that develops in the lower salinity areas of macrotidal estuaries has been considered as an important nursery for many fish species. Mysids are one of the dominant organisms in the ETM, serving as a key food source for juvenile fish. To investigate the horizontal distribution and population dynamics of dominant mysids in relation to the fluctuation of physical conditions (temperature, salinity, turbidity, and freshwater discharge), we conducted monthly sampling (hauls of a ring net in the surface water) along the macrotidal Chikugo River estuary in Japan from May 2005 to December 2006. Hyperacanthomysis longirostris was the dominant mysid in the estuary, usually showing peaks of density and biomass in or close to the ETM (salinity 1–10). In addition, intra-specific differences (life-cycle stage, sex, and size) in horizontal distribution were found along the estuary. Larger males and females, particularly gravid females, were distributed upstream from the center of distribution where juveniles were overwhelmingly dominant. Juveniles increased in size toward the sea in marked contrast with males and females. The findings suggest a possible system of population maintenance within the estuary; gravid females release juveniles in the upper estuary, juveniles grow during downstream transport, young males and females mature during the upstream migration. Density and biomass were primarily controlled by seasonal changes of temperature, being high at intermediate temperatures (ca. 15–25 °C in late spring and fall) and being low at the extreme temperatures (ca. 10 °C in midwinter and 30 °C in midsummer). High density (up to 666 ind. m⁻³) and biomass (up to 168 mg dry weight m⁻³) of H. longirostris were considered to be comparable with those of copepods in the estuary.     

Distinctive copepod community of the estuarine turbidity maximum: comparative observations in three macrotidal estuaries (Chikugo, Midori, and Kuma Rivers), southwestern Japan

Copepods are considered to be a vital component connecting the unique macrotidal environment to the high productivity and high biodiversity of the Ariake Sea. To examine the spatiotemporal succession of copepod communities, we conducted monthly sampling (vertical hauls of a 100-μm mesh plankton net) in three neighboring macrotidal estuaries between 2005 and 2006. Irrespective of the season, three copepod communities were recognized in relation to the relatively long gradients of salinity and turbidity along the Chikugo and Midori River estuaries. The oligohaline community (salinity 1–10) was observed at higher turbidities (>100 NTU), whereas the freshwater (salinity <1) and meso/polyhaline (salinity >10) communities were associated with lower turbidities (<100 NTU). The oligohaline calanoid Sinocalanus sinensis occurred only in the Chikugo River estuary, maintaining a large biomass (dry weight >10 mg m^?3) in or close to the well-developed estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) throughout the year. In the Midori River estuary, the oligohaline community lacked S. sinensis and showed a minimum biomass during winter (<10 mg m^?3). In both estuaries, the freshwater community always remained at a small biomass (<1 mg m^?3), whereas the meso/polyhaline community showed marked seasonal changes in biomass (0.1–657 mg m^?3). The prevalence of higher salinities allowed only the meso/polyhaline community to occur in the Kuma River estuary. In summary, S. sinensis characterized the copepod community distinctive of the well-developed ETM, potentially serving as an important link to higher trophic levels during winter when copepods are scarce in other areas.     

Ecophysiology of juvenile flatfish in nursery grounds

Relationships between biotic and abiotic factors and the ecological performance of late larval and juvenile flatfish in nursery grounds are examined from ecophysiological viewpoints. The first events in the nursery are metamorphosis and settlement. Development of organs, osmoregulation and behavioural changes during metamorphosis, and size at metamorphosis are regulated by environmental factors. Various hormones play critical roles in this regulation. Effects of environmental conditions on individual growth in the nursery grounds are described on the basis of Fry's five environmental factors: limiting, controlling, masking, directive and lethal factors. The main limiting factors are food and dissolved oxygen; controlling factors are temperature and body size; masking factors are salinity and pollutants; lethal factors are extreme environments; and directive factors are food, predators and dissolved oxygen. In addition to temperature, it has been indicated that dissolved oxygen seems to be relatively important for flatfish of the eastern US and northern European countries, while food abundance appears to be more critical for Japanese flounder. The feasibility is discussed of ecophysiological modelling to predict individual growth and subpopulation production based on the assessment of the role of environmental variability using the above classification, which organises and integrates environmental effects.     

Development of sampling downscaling: a case for wintertime precipitation in Hokkaido

This study has developed sampling downscaling (SmDS), in which dynamical downscaling (DDS) is executed for a few of period selected from a long-term integration by general circulation model based on an observed statistical relationship between large-scale climate and regional-scale precipitation. SmDS expectedly produces climatology and frequency distribution of precipitation over a nested region with reducing computational cost, if a global-scale climate pattern mostly controls regional-scale weather statistics. Here SmDS was attempted for wintertime precipitation over Hokkaido, Japan, because a linkage between snowfall and sea-level pressure patterns has been known by Japanese synopticians and it can be detected by singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis on wintertime inter-annual variability during the period from 1980/1981 to 2009/2010 for precipitation over Hokkaido and moisture flux convergence around there. DDS for the full period over the same domain was also performed for comparison with SmDS. SmDS selected two winters from the top and two winters from the bottom of the projection onto the first SVD mode. It was found that, comparing with the full DDS, SmDS indeed provided unbiased statistics for average but exaggerated extreme statistics such as heavy rainfall frequency. It was also shown that the sampling in the SmDS method was much more effective than the random sampling.     

FDM Simulation of Seismic Waves, Ocean Acoustic Waves, and Tsunamis Based on Tsunami-Coupled Equations of Motion

We have developed a new, unified modeling technique for the total simulation of seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis resulting from earthquakes, based on a finite difference method simulation of the 3D equations of motion. Using the equilibrium between the pressure gradient and gravity in these equations, tsunami propagation is naturally incorporated in the simulation based on the equations of motion. The performance of the parallel computation for the newly developed tsunami-coupled equations using a domain partitioning procedure shows a high efficiency coefficient with a large number of CPU cores. The simulation results show how the near-field term associated with seismic waves produced by shallow earthquakes leads to a permanent coseismic deformation of the ground surface, which gives rise to the initial tsunami on the sea surface. Propagation of the tsunami along the sea surface as a gravity wave, and ocean acoustic waves in seawater with high-frequency multiple P-wave reflections between the free surface and sea bottom, are also clearly demonstrated by the present simulations. We find a good agreement in the tsunami waveform between our results and those obtained by other simulations based on an analytical model and the Navier–Stokes equations, demonstrating the effectiveness of the tsunami-coupling simulation model. Based on this simulation, we show that the ratio of the amplitude of ocean acoustic waves to the height of the tsunami, both of which are produced by the earthquake, strongly depends on the rise time of the earthquake rupture. This ratio can be used to obtain a more detailed understanding of the source rupture processes of subduction zone earthquakes, and for implementing an improved tsunami alert system for slow tsunami earthquakes.