Evaluation of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions during 2009 season of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales

The performance of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events (formation plus track) made once a week during the 2009 season is evaluated with the same procedures as for the 2008 season. Seventeen of the 23 tropical cyclones during the 2009 season occurred during multiple storm scenarios that are more difficult to predict, and many of the deficient track predictions involved unusual and rapidly changing tracks that typically involve interactions with adjacent synoptic circulations that are not predictable on intraseasonal timescales (10–30 days). Such incorrect predictions of the duration and tracks of these multiple cyclones were found to degrade the performance in predicting subsequent tropical cyclone formations and tracks during the 32-day integration. Predominantly northward tracks throughout the life cycle tended to be less predictable on intraseasonal timescales. Given these caveats, the overall performance of the ECMWF ensemble for the 12 typhoons was more successful than during the 2008 season. However, the performance for three tropical storms during the 2009 season was less successful due to the difficult track forecast scenarios. A surprisingly good performance was found in predicting the formation location and early track segments of eight minimal tropical storms or tropical depressions. The less satisfactory aspect for many of the late season tropical depressions was that the ECMWF ensemble continued to predict member vortices for extended periods after the system had actually dissipated.     

Lessons learned from bacterial transport research at the South Oyster Site

This paper provides a review of bacterial transport experiments conducted by a multiinvestigator, multiinstitution, multidisciplinary team of researchers under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The experiments were conducted during the time period 1999-2001 at a field site near the town of Oyster, Virginia known as the South Oyster Site, and included four major experimental campaigns aimed at understanding and quantifying bacterial transport in the subsurface environment. Several key elements of the research are discussed here: (1) quantification of bacterial transport in physically, chemically, and biologically heterogeneous aquifers, (2) evaluation of the efficacy of conventional colloid filtration theory, (3) scale effects in bacterial transport, (4) development of new methods for microbial enumeration and screening for low adhesion strains, (5) application of novel hydrogeophysical techniques for aquifer characterization, and (6) experiences regarding management of a large field research effort. Lessons learned are summarized in each of these areas. The body of literature resulting from South Oyster Site research has been widely cited and continues to influence research into the controls exerted by aquifer heterogeneity on reactive transport (including microbial transport). It also served as a model (and provided valuable experience) for subsequent and ongoing highly-instrumented field research efforts conducted by DOE-sponsored investigators.     

Post-glacial regional climate variability along the East Antarctic coastal margin—Evidence from shallow marine and coastal terrestrial records

We review the post-glacial climate variability along the East Antarctic coastline using terrestrial and shallow marine geological records and compare these reconstructions with data from elsewhere. Nearly all East Antarctic records show a near-synchronous Early Holocene climate optimum (11.5–9 ka BP), coinciding with the deglaciation of currently ice-free regions and the optimum recorded in Antarctic ice and marine sediment cores. Shallow marine and coastal terrestrial climate anomalies appear to be out of phase after the Early Holocene warm period, and show complex regional patterns, but an overall trend of cooling in the terrestrial records. A Mid to Late Holocene warm period is present in many East Antarctic lake and shallow coastal marine records. Although there are some differences in the regional timing of this warm period, it typically occurs somewhere between 4.7 and 1 ka BP, which overlaps with a similar optimum found in Antarctic Peninsula terrestrial records. The differences in the timing of these sometimes abrupt warm events in different records and regions points to a number of mechanisms that we have yet to identify. Nearly all records show a neoglacial cooling from 2 ka BP onwards. There is no evidence along the East Antarctic coastline for an equivalent to the Northern Hemisphere Medieval Warm Period and there is only weak circumstantial evidence in a few places for a cool event crudely equivalent in time to the Northern Hemisphere's Little Ice Age. There is a need for well-dated, high resolution climate records in coastal East Antarctica and particularly in Terre Adélie, Dronning Maud Land and Enderby Land to fully understand the regional climate anomalies, the disparity between marine and terrestrial records, and to determine the significance of the heterogeneous temperature trends being measured in the Antarctic today.     

Phosphorus fractions in the surface sediments of three mangrove systems of southwest coast of India

The phosphorus fractions in three tropical mangrove systems of Cochin region were analysed by sequential extraction method. Iron-bound phosphorus was the major fraction in the first two stations, while station 3 was exclusively dominated by calcium-bound phosphorus. Compared to other stations, about tenfold increase in total phosphorus content was observed at station 3. This station is a congregation of communally breeding birds, and there is accumulation of bird guano. Mineralogical analysis showed the presence of monetite, a thermodynamically metastable calcium phosphate mineral, in this unique system. The excreta and carcass of the birds in this sanctuary seems to be the reason for the formation of monetite, which is favoured by periodic fluctuations in redox potential. The high mass percentages of calcium and phosphorus by XRF and SEM–EDS analysis confirm the existence of calcium phosphate mineral at station 3. First two stations did not show any noticeable difference in phosphorus fractions and inorganic fractions constituted to about 65% of total phosphorus. But at station 3, inorganic fractions were about 92%. Low C:P ratios and low organic phosphorus content indicated active mineralisation of phosphorus at station 3. Bioavailable fractions of phosphorus at stations 1 and 2 were about 75%, whereas 98% of the total phosphorus was bioavailable at station 3. Since the bulk of the total phosphorus is bioavailable, these mangrove sediments have the potential to act as source of phosphorus to the overlying waters.     

A double slip non-coaxial flow rule for viscous-plastic Cosserat materials

We propose a double slip non-coaxial plastic model within the framework of a Cosserat continuum theory. In a Cosserat continuum, a material point possesses the degrees of freedom of an infinitesimal rigid body: two translations and one rotation in 2D. We formulate the plastic model into viscous-plastic constitutive relationships and illustrate the viscous-plastic behaviour of the model by means of numerical solution of a simple shear problem.     

Numerical convergence study of iterative coupling for coupled flow and geomechanics

In this paper, we consider algorithms for modeling complex processes in porous media that include fluid and structure interactions. Numerous field applications would benefit from a better understanding and integration of porous flow and solid deformation. Important applications in environmental and petroleum engineering include carbon sequestration, surface subsidence, pore collapse, cavity generation, hydraulic fracturing, thermal fracturing, wellbore collapse, sand production, fault activation, and waste disposal, while similar issues arise in biosciences and chemical sciences as well. Here, we consider solving iteratively the coupling of flow and mechanics. We employ mixed finite element method for flow and a continuous Galerkin method for elasticity. For single-phase flow, we demonstrate the convergence and convergence rates for two widely used schemes, the undrained split and the fixed stress split. We discuss the extension of the fixed stress iterative coupling scheme to an equation of state compositional flow model coupled with elasticity and a single-phase poroelasticity model on general hexahedral grids. Computational results are presented.     

Searching for nonlocal lithologies in the Apollo 12 regolith: A geochemical and petrological study of basaltic coarse fines from the Apollo lunar soil sample 12023,155

New data from a petrological and geochemical examination of 12 coarse basaltic fines from the Apollo 12 soil sample 12023,155 provide evidence of additional geochemical diversity at the landing site. In addition to the bulk chemical composition, major, minor, and trace element analyses of mineral phases are employed to ascertain how these samples relate to the Apollo 12 lithological basalt groups, thereby overcoming the problems of representativeness of small samples. All of the samples studied are low‐Ti basalts (0.9–5.7 wt% TiO₂), and many fall into the established olivine, pigeonite, and ilmenite classification of Apollo 12 basaltic suites. There are five exceptions: sample 12023,155_1A is mineralogically and compositionally distinct from other Apollo 12 basalt types, with low pigeonite REE concentrations and low Ni (41–55 ppm) and Mn (2400–2556 ppm) concentrations in olivine. Sample 12023,155_11A is also unique, with Fe‐rich mineral compositions and low bulk Mg# (=100 × atomic Mg/[Mg+Fe]) of 21.6. Sample 12023,155_7A has different plagioclase chemistry and crystallization trends as well as a wider range of olivine Mg# (34–55) compared with other Apollo 12 basalts, and shows greater similarities to Apollo 14 high‐Al basalts. Two other samples (12023,155_4A, and _5A) are similar to the Apollo 12 feldspathic basalt 12038, providing additional evidence that feldspathic basalts represent a lava flow proximal to the Apollo 12 site rather than material introduced by impacts. We suggest that at least one parent magma, and possibly as many as four separate parent magmas, are required in addition to the previously identified olivine, pigeonite, and ilmenite basaltic suites to account for the observed chemical diversity of basalts found in this study.     

Origin and flatness of ponds on asteroid 433 Eros

NEAR‐Shoemaker Multi‐Spectral Imager data reveal several hundred “ponds” on 433 Eros: smooth deposits that sharply embay the bounding depressions in which they lie, and whose spectra appear blue relative to that of the surrounding terrain. We investigate the topography of these ponds on Eros using a new shape model derived from stereophotoclinometric analysis, and validated against altimetry from the NEAR Laser Rangefinder, to constrain the mode of pond formation from three existing models. We update the locations of 55 pond candidates identified in images registered to the new shape model. We classify the flatness of these features according to the behavior of the first and second derivatives of the topography. We find that less than half of pond candidates have clearly flat floors. Based on the pond topography, we favor an external origin for the ponds' deposits. We suggest that fine dust may be transported into bounding depressions by electrostatic levitation, but may adhere to slopes, and that seismic shaking may not be sufficient to bring the deposits to an equipotential surface. Disaggregation of a central boulder should result in an obvious break in slope, such a variation is only observed in roughly half the pond candidates.