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81.
Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
David W. Pierce Tapash Das Daniel R. Cayan Edwin P. Maurer Norman L. Miller Yan Bao M. Kanamitsu Kei Yoshimura Mark A. Snyder Lisa C. Sloan Guido Franco Mary Tyree 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):839-856
Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling. 相似文献
82.
Connecting atmospheric science and atmospheric models for aerocapture at Titan and the outer planets
Many atmospheric measurement systems, such as the sounding instruments on Voyager, gather atmospheric information in the form of temperature versus pressure level. In these terms, there is considerable consistency among the mean atmospheric profiles of the outer planets Jupiter through Neptune, including Titan. On a given planet or on Titan, the range of variability of temperature versus pressure level due to seasonal, latitudinal, and diurnal variations is also not large. However, many engineering needs for atmospheric models relate not to temperature versus pressure level but atmospheric density versus geometric altitude. This need is especially true for design and analysis of aerocapture systems. Drag force available for aerocapture is directly proportional to atmospheric density. Available aerocapture “corridor width” (allowable range of atmospheric entry angle) also depends on height rate of change of atmospheric density, as characterized by density scale height. Characteristics of hydrostatics and the gas law equation mean that relatively small systematic differences in temperature versus pressure profiles can integrate at high altitudes to very large differences in density versus altitude profiles. Thus, a given periapsis density required to accomplish successful aerocapture can occur at substantially different altitudes (∼150-300 km) on the various outer planets, and significantly different density scale heights (∼20-50 km) can occur at these periapsis altitudes. This paper will illustrate these effects and discuss implications for improvements in atmospheric measurements to yield significant impact on design of aerocapture systems for future missions to Titan and the outer planets. Relatively small-scale atmospheric perturbations, such as gravity waves, tides, and other atmospheric variations can also have significant effect on design details for aerocapture guidance and control systems. This paper will discuss benefits that would result from improved understanding of Titan and outer planetary atmospheric perturbation characteristics. Details of recent engineering-level atmospheric models for Titan and Neptune will be presented, and effects of present and future levels of atmospheric uncertainty and variability characteristics will be examined. 相似文献
83.
84.
85.
David L. Mary 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2005,26(2-3):283-292
We provide a detailed introduction to the main problems arising when analyzing light curves in asteroseismology. Attention
is first paid to the signal model delivered by the pulsating stars and to the noise sources corrupting this model in photometric
observations. The main pitfalls and ambiguities occurring in Fourier analysis are summarized and illustrated. Some classical,
Least Squares (LS) based methods for spectrum analysis are analyzed and commented on from the point of view of ill-posed problems.
The insight that can be gained from such analyses is discussed. 相似文献
86.
L. I. Dorman M. E. Katz Yu. I. Fedorov B. A. Shakhov 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1983,94(1):43-95
A consistent theory of energy exchange between high-energy charged cosmic-ray particles and the random inhomogeneities of a magnetic field frozen in the moving solar wind plasma is developed. It is shown that the mode of the particle energy variations at a given law of plasma velocity variation in space is determined by the specific form of the particle distribution function. The equation for the density of cosmic-ray energy is obtained. Consideration is given to the generation of a charged particle energy spectrum in the course of multiple scatterings by the random inhomogeneities of the magnetic field. 相似文献
87.
The influence of compressibility of the medium on cosmic ray (CR) fluctuations has been investigated. The CR transport equation has been used to obtain an equation for the second moment of CR particle density (correlation function of the particle density). It is shown that the effects due to the compressibility of the medium has an essential influence on CR fluctuations. The relations between CR power spectra and random velocity field have been determined. For the turbulence which is created by an ensemble of weak sound waves we have obtained the connection between the spectral indices of CR power spectra and the velocity field. It is shown that the spectral indices of CR power spectra and the velocity field of random sound waves coincide. 相似文献
88.
Summary results from a pilot study conducted around an oil production platform on the Northwest Shelf of Australia 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
King SC Johnson JE Haasch ML Ryan DA Ahokas JT Burns KA 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(11):1163-1172
The Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) conducted a pilot study around the Harriet A oil production platform on the Northwest Shelf of Australia. We evaluated hepatic ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity, fluorescent aromatic compounds (FACs) in bile and immunodetection of CYP1A-like proteins in two Australian tropical fish species, Gold-Spotted Trevally (Carangoides fulvoguttatus) and Bar-Cheeked Coral Trout (Plectropomus maculatus) to assess exposure to petroleum hydrocarbons associated with produced formation water (PFW). Additionally, the incidence of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria isolated from the liver and bile of all fish captured was examined. Low EROD activity was found in both species, with EROD activity in C. fulvoguttatus showing significant site differences. FACs and CYP1A protein levels in C. fulvoguttatus showed a clear trend in hydrocarbon exposure consistent with hydrocarbon chemistry data: Harriet A>Harriet C>reference site. P. maculatus showed elevated levels of FACs at Harriet A as compared to the reference site and demonstrated detectable levels of CYP1A-like proteins at these two sites. Hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria were found in the liver and bile of both species, yet there was no correlation by sites. Our results demonstrate that C. fulvoguttatus and P. maculatus have potential as indicator species for assessing the effects from exposure to petroleum hydrocarbons. Both FACs and CYP1A are providing warning signs that there is potential for biological effects on fish populations exposed to PFW around the Harriet A production platform. 相似文献
89.
The interannual to decadal variability of precipitation and daily maximum and daily minimum temperature (TMAX and TMIN) in southern Brazil for the 1913–2006 period is investigated using indices for these variables. Relations of these indices and the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4 index) and southwestern subtropical Atlantic (SSA index) are also investigated. Analyses are based on the Morlet wavelet transform. The interannual precipitation variability during the 1913–2006 period is mostly due to the high variances that occurred in specific sub-periods. The TMAX and TMIN indices also show significant interannual variability. The coherency and phase difference analyses of the precipitation index and the SST indices show higher coherency with the Niño 3.4 than with the SSA index. On the other hand, examining the coherencies and phase difference between the temperature indices and the SST indices, weaker coherencies with the Niño 3.4 index than with the SSA index are noted. These differences are discussed in the context of previous results. The new results here, with possible application for climate monitoring tasks, refer to the spectral differences between TMIN and TMAX. 相似文献
90.
The present work provides a new methodology to determine onset dates of the rainy season (ONR) in central Amazon (CAM) using the antisymmetric in relation to the equator outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) (AOLR) data, for the 1979–2006 period. Spatial averages of the AOLR ( $\overline {AOLR} $ ) over the CAM for the ONR periods are obtained. These periods correspond to 25 pentads centered on the mean pentad for the ONR. The sign changes from positive to negative of the $\overline {AOLR} $ for the ONR periods indicate the transition from dry to wet season. Composites of several variables are done for pentads before and after the ONR dates. These composites show physically consistent features. The potential of the $\overline {AOLR} $ time series as an index for monitoring tasks is analyzed. The results here show that the $\overline {AOLR} $ for the ONR period captures the transition from dry to wet conditions in the CAM area during 2006. The advantages of this method are discussed. The new simple method proposed here seems to be efficient in determining the ONR in the CAM. 相似文献