Long-term declines in two apex predators,bull sharks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Carcharhinus leucas</Emphasis>) and alligator gar (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Atractosteus spatula</Emphasis>), in Lake Pontchartrain,an oligohaline estuary in southeastern Louisiana

We analyzed historic and current fishery independent data to determine if the abundance of two apex predators, bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) and alligator gar (Atractosteus spatula), in Lake Pontchartrain had changed significantly over the last half century. Lake Pontchartrain is an environmentally degraded oligohaline estuary in southeastern Louisiana that has experienced considerable changes in fish assemblage composition over this interval. Using gillnet, beach seine, and trawl data collected during three time periods (1953–1955, 1977–1978, and 1996–2005), we analyzed trends in abundance forC. leucas andA. spatula using generalized linear models with a negative binomial error structure and a log link. Lake Pontchartrain data were divided into four spatial locations (northwest, northeast, southwest, southeast) since each region represents a unique combination of anthropogenic and natural influences that could affect catches. For each species and gear type, we produced log-likelihood profiles for the instantaneous rate of change in relative abundance through time. Raw catches were generally lower for both species in the later surveys.C. leucas were not captured in beach seines since the 1950s andA. spatula were rarely captured in trawls or seines since the 1970s. Likelihood profiles of changes in abundance forC. leucas andA. spatula showed very large declines in both species since 1953.C. leucas declined by 98.6% (95% CI: 73.4–99.9%) in gillnets and became functionally extirpated in beach seines with a decline of 99.9% (95% CI: 23–99.9%). Among all gears,C. leucas declined by the same rate as in gillnets. The decline inA. spatula was also large with a decrease of 98.6% (95% CI: 73.4–99.9%) in beach seines and a decline of 99.2% (95% CI: 54.8–99.9%) in trawls since 1953. Catches ofA. spatula in gillnets did not show a significant change over the study period. The continued decline of these two apex predators could seriously affect efforts to restore this degraded estuarine ecosystem.     

America's Changing Farmscape: A Study of Agricultural Tourism in Michigan*

Agricultural tourism incorporates visits to farms for the purposes of on‐site retail purchases, enjoyment, and education. Long popular in the European Union (EU), agritourism is gaining popularity throughout the United States. Interest has grown as a result of stagnant grain prices, rising farm costs, and growing international competition. For rural areas seeking new economic options, the potential of these operations to generate new sources of income through sales and horizontal linkages to other tourism‐based activities has sparked interest beyond the farm gate. This article, based on a survey and a statistical analysis of 300 agritourism operations in Michigan, summarizes factors associated with successful operations.     

THE IMPACT OF METAL AND ORGANIC CONTAMINANTS ON THE STRUCTURE OF PERIPHYTON IN LOTIC SEDIMENTS: OBSERVATIONS AT VARIOUS SCALES

1 INTRODUCTION While wastewater discharge regulations have significantly reduced water column pollution, historical and accidental releases of organic pollutants and heavy metals continue to pose an ecological threat as these contaminants have become 搃n-place?sediment pollutants. It had been previously assumed that natural attenuation processes, such as burial or biodegradation, would decrease the contamination levels in surface sediments and, thus, diminish the environmental impact of t…     

The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S.

One strand of research relates the magnitude of severe weather disasters to climatic and human development factors; another highlights dramatic growth in catastrophe losses. However, there have been few attempts to put the two strands together. Here we use an explicit modeling framework to determine the contribution of climate variability relative to human factors in reported catastrophe losses. We then examine how future climate change can be expected to affect losses from natural disasters. Simultaneous regression models are constructed from three equations in which the dependent variables are U.S. flood loss, U.S. hurricane loss and U.S. catastrophe loss. Then two kinds of simulation under two climate change scenarios explore how climate change would affect losses. The climate change scenarios respectively project 13.5% and 21.5% increases in annual precipitation. The first simulation increases only the mean value of annual precipitation; the second simulation assumes that the mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation change in the same proportion. Results show that the growth in reported losses from weather-related natural disasters is due mainly to three socioeconomic factors: inflation, population growth and growth in per capita real wealth. However, weather variables such as precipitation and the number of hurricanes per period also clearly affect losses. The three stage least squares (3SLS) simultaneous equation model shows that a 1% increase in annual precipitation would enlarge catastrophe loss by as much as 2.8%. These findings are suggestive as planning signals to decision makers.     

东昆仑东段哈拉郭勒-哈图一带中生代的岩石隆升剥露--锆石和磷灰石裂变径迹年代学证据

根据对东昆仑地区东段哈拉郭勒—哈图一带不同高度基岩的系列锆石裂变径迹年龄分析，结合磷灰石裂变径迹年龄分析和中酸性侵入岩角闪石压力计分析揭示了东昆仑东段中生代的岩石隆升剥露冷却历史．巴隆哈图一带中酸性侵入岩角闪石压力计分析结果反映晚海西—印支期以来的总体剥露幅度约8～9km，早二叠世至晚三叠世初剥蚀作用极为缓慢，大约为20～40m／Ma．不同高程样品的锆石裂变径迹年龄分析结果揭示了东昆仑地区东段在中晚侏罗世处于缓慢的岩石隆升剥露阶段，其中中侏罗世相对较快，抬升速率77～88m／Ma，晚侏罗世相对较慢，抬升速率小于37m／Ma，且呈减慢趋势，这种减慢趋势反映了早中侏罗世之交强构造抬升期后的逐渐衰退．锆石裂变径迹—磷灰石裂变径迹年龄分析结果反映了中侏罗世以来的剥蚀速率一般不超过55m／Ma，岩石的剥蚀速率与岩石的抬升速率基本为同一量级，中侏罗世—白垩纪剥蚀作用与岩石抬升作用基本处于平衡状态。     

Using a Computational Grid for Geographic Information Analysis: A Reconnaissance

High performance computing has undergone a radical transformation during the past decade. Though monolithic supercomputers continue to be built with significantly increased computing power, geographically distributed computing resources are now routinely linked using high‐speed networks to address a broad range of computationally complex problems. These confederated resources are referred to collectively as a computational Grid. Many geographical problems exhibit characteristics that make them candidates for this new model of computing. As an illustration, we describe a spatial statistics problem and demonstrate how it can be addressed using Grid computing strategies. A key element of this application is the development of middleware that handles domain decomposition and coordinates computational functions. We also discuss the development of Grid portals that are designed to help researchers and decision makers access and use geographic information analysis tools.     

Comparison of climate model results with European vegetation and permafrost during oxygen isotope stage three

Oxygen isotope stage 3 (OIS3), an interstade between approximately 60,000 and 25,000 yr B.P., presents an ideal opportunity to compare high-resolution climate simulations with the geologic record. To facilitate this comparison, the results of a mesoscale climate model (RegCM2) embedded in the GENESIS GCM are utilized to drive a vegetation model (BIOME 3.5). The BIOME output is then compared with OIS3 compilations derived from pollen. The simulated biomes agree well with the pollen-based biomes in southern Europe; however, disagreements occur in the northern part of the domain. The most striking mismatch involves the distribution of tundra. The models fail to have tundra extend to its observed position as far south as 50°N in central Europe during OIS3. The model also fails to have permafrost extend southward to its observed position between 50°N and 55°N in western Europe during OIS3. A variety of sensitivity experiments are performed to investigate these mismatches. These experiments demonstrate the importance of annual and summer temperatures and the length of the winter season in creating improved matches between the model results and the inferred distributions of vegetation and permafrost in northern Europe.     

European vegetation during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage-3

European vegetation during representative “warm” and “cold” intervals of stage-3 was inferred from pollen analytical data. The inferred vegetation differs in character and spatial pattern from that of both fully glacial and fully interglacial conditions and exhibits contrasts between warm and cold intervals, consistent with other evidence for stage-3 palaeoenvironmental fluctuations. European vegetation thus appears to have been an integral component of millennial environmental fluctuations during stage-3; vegetation responded to this scale of environmental change and through feedback mechanisms may have had effects upon the environment. The pollen-inferred vegetation was compared with vegetation simulated using the BIOME 3.5 vegetation model for climatic conditions simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM2) nested within a coupled global climate and vegetation model (GENESIS-BIOME). Despite some discrepancies in detail, both approaches capture the principal features of the present vegetation of Europe. The simulated vegetation for stage-3 differs markedly from that inferred from pollen analytical data, implying substantial discrepancy between the simulated climate and that actually prevailing. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the simulated climate is too warm and probably has too short a winter season. These discrepancies may reflect incorrect specification of sea surface temperature or sea-ice conditions and may be exacerbated by vegetation-climate feedback in the coupled global model.     

Trace-element geochemistry of individual glass shards of the Old Crow tephra and the age of the Delta glaciation, central Alaska

Two widespread tephra deposits constrain the age of the Delta Glaciation in central Alaska. The Old Crow tephra (ca. 140,000 ± 10,000 yr), identified by electron microprobe and ion microprobe analyses of individual glass shards, overlies an outwash terrace coeval with the Delta glaciation. The Sheep Creek tephra (ca. 190,000 yr) is reworked in alluvium of Delta age. The upper and lower limiting tephra dates indicate that the Delta glaciation occurred during marine oxygen isotope stage 6. We hypothesize that glaciers in the Delta River Valley reached their maximum Pleistocene extent during this cold interval because of significant mid-Pleistocene tectonic uplift of the east-central Alaska Range.