Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections

We determine the parameters of the semi-empirical link between global temperature and global sea level in a wide variety of ways, using different equations, different data sets for temperature and sea level as well as different statistical techniques. We then compare projections of all these different model versions (over 30) for a moderate global warming scenario for the period 2000–2100. We find the projections are robust and are mostly within ±20% of that obtained with the method of Vermeer and Rahmstorf (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:21527–21532, 2009), namely ~1 m for the given warming of 1.8°C. Lower projections are obtained only if the correction for reservoir storage is ignored and/or the sea level data set of Church and White (Surv Geophys, 2011) is used. However, the latter provides an estimate of the base temperature T ₀ that conflicts with the constraints from three other data sets, in particular with proxy data showing stable sea level over the period 1400–1800. Our new best-estimate model, accounting also for groundwater pumping, is very close to the model of Vermeer and Rahmstorf (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:21527–21532, 2009).     

On the Use of Hydrological Models and Satellite Data to Study the Water Budget of River Basins Affected by Human Activities: Examples from the Garonne Basin of France

Natural and anthropogenic forcing factors and their changes significantly impact water resources in many river basins around the world. Information on such changes can be derived from fine scale in situ and satellite observations, used in combination with hydrological models. The latter need to account for hydrological changes caused by human activities to correctly estimate the actual water resource. In this study, we consider the catchment area of the Garonne river (in France) to investigate the capabilities of space-based observations and up-to-date hydrological modeling in estimating water resources of a river basin modified by human activities and a changing climate. Using the ISBA–MODCOU and SWAT hydrological models, we find that the water resources of the Garonne basin display a negative climate trend since 1960. The snow component of the two models is validated using the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer snow cover extent climatology. Crop sowing dates based on remote sensing studies are also considered in the validation procedure. Use of this dataset improves the simulated evapotranspiration and river discharge amounts when compared to conventional data. Finally, we investigate the benefit of using the MAELIA multi-agent model that accounts for a realistic agricultural and management scenario. Among other results, we find that changes in crop systems have significant impacts on water uptake for agriculture. This work constitutes a basis for the construction of a future modeling framework of the sociological and hydrological system of the Garonne river region.     

The use of multivariate statistics to elucidate patterns of floodplain sedimentation at different spatial scales

Floodplains are depositional features of riverine landscapes that display complex sedimentation patterns that are amenable to multi‐scale approaches. We examined sedimentation in the Lower Balonne floodplain, Queensland, Australia, at three different spatial scales: the channel (10³ km), floodplain process zone (10 km) and geomorphic unit (10² m) scales, and compared scale‐related patterns evident from stratigraphy with those evident from quantitative multivariate analysis. Three stratigraphic sequences were found in the Lower Balonne floodplain: generally fining upward, episodic fining upward, and mud‐dominated. Stratigraphical analysis revealed the detailed character of sedimentary sequences embedded within the scale patterns derived from multivariate analysis. Multivariate statistical analyses of a range of textural and geochemical data revealed different patterns of floodplain sedimentation at each scale. At the channel scale, sediment texture and geochemistry were more heterogeneous in the Culgoa River than in Briarie Creek. At the floodplain process zone scale clear patterns of sediment texture and geochemistry were observed along the upper, mid and lower floodplain process zones of Briarie Creek, but not along the Culgoa River. At the geomorphic unit scale, clear patterns of sediment texture and geochemistry were observed among the bank, buried channel and flat floodplain units of the Culgoa River, but were not as clear in Briarie Creek. Recognition of rivers as hierarchically organized systems is an emerging paradigm in river science. Our study supports this paradigm by demonstrating that different sedimentation patterns occur at different scales to reveal a hierarchically organized floodplain environment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

家空间与家庭关系的活动-移动行为透视——基于国际比较的视角

家被认为是具有保护性和排他性的私人空间,是个人寻求归属感和安全感的场所。但由于东西方文化差异,家的意义以及家庭关系的重要性存在着明显差异。基于活动—移动行为分析,以家空间利用和家庭关系为突破点,讨论由传统文化价值观及社会经济发展水平影响的社会人际交往模式的不同。实证研究部分基于中国北京和荷兰乌特勒支在2007年进行的活动日志调查,围绕“谁会被允许进入家空间”的问题,将活动空间划分为“自己家—他人家—公共空间”三个层次,分析活动同伴对见面地点选择的影响。结果表明,北京居民通常在家会见亲属,而在公共场所会见朋友;乌特勒支居民对亲属和朋友共同活动地点选择并没有明显差异。这与中国较强的家庭观念以及家庭保护意识相一致。活动地点的选择也受到性别、家庭结构等社会经济属性的影响。进而讨论了中国传统家庭观念对中西方和谐社会建设及老龄社会保障等的现实意义。     

The isotopic composition of zircon and garnet: A record of the metamorphic history of Naxos, Greece

Growth of zircon with respect to that of garnet has been studied using a combination of petrography, U–Pb dating and oxygen isotope analysis. The aim is to document the mechanism and pressure–temperature conditions of zircon growth during metamorphism in order to better constrain the Tertiary metamorphic history of Naxos, Greece. Two metamorphisms are recognised: (1) an Eocene Franciscan metamorphism (M1) and (2) a widespread Miocene Barrovian metamorphism (M2) that increases from greenschist facies up to partial melting. An amphibolite sample contains zircon crystals characterised by a magmatic core and two metamorphic rims, denoted as A and B, dated at 200–270, 42–69, and 14–19 Ma, respectively. The first metamorphic rim A (δ¹⁸O = 7 ± 1‰) preserves the δ¹⁸O value of the magmatic core (6.2 ± 0.8‰), whereas rim B is characterised by higher δ¹⁸O values (7.8 ± 1.8‰). These observations indicate the formation of A rims by solid-state recrystallisation in a closed system with regard to oxygen and those of B in an open system. Compositional zoning in garnet is interpreted as the result of decompressional heating. Zircon B rims and garnet rims display similar δ¹⁸O values which indicates a contemporaneous growth of garnet and zircon rims during the Miocene Barrovian event (M2). Calcic gneiss and metapelite samples contain zircon crystals with single metamorphic overgrowths aged 41–57 Ma. δ¹⁸O values measured in zircon overgrowths (11.8 ± 1.4‰) from the calcic gneiss are similar to those measured in garnet rims (11.4 ± 1.1‰) from the same rock. This suggests that garnet rims and zircon overgrowths grew during the high pressure–low temperature event in equilibrium with prograde fluids. In the metapelite sample, δ¹⁸O values are similar in garnet cores (14.8 ± 0.2‰) and in zircon metamorphic overgrowths (14.2 ± 0.5‰). As zircon overgrowths have been dated at ca. 50 Ma by U–Pb, garnet cores and zircon overgrowths are interpreted to have grown during the high pressure event.

As demonstrated here for the island of Naxos, correlating the crystallisation of zircon with that of metamorphic index minerals such as garnet using stable isotope composition and U–Pb determination is a powerful tool for deciphering the mechanism of zircon growth and pin-pointing zircon crystallisation within the metamorphic history of a terrain. This approach is potentially hampered by an inability to verify the degree of textural equilibrium of zircon with other mineral phases, and the possible preservation (in metamorphic rims) of isotopic signatures from pre-existing zircon when they form by recrystallisation. Nevertheless, this study illustrates the application of this approach in providing key constraints on the timing and mechanism of growth of minerals important to understanding metamorphic petrogenesis.     

The micrometeorite flux to Earth during the earliest Paleogene reconstructed in the Bottaccione section (Umbrian Apennines), Italy

Based on sediment‐dispersed extraterrestrial spinel grains in the Bottaccione limestone section in Italy, we reconstructed the micrometeorite flux to Earth during the early Paleocene. From a total of 843 kg of limestone, 86 extraterrestrial spinel grains (12 grains > 63 μm, and 74 in the 32–63 μm fraction) have been recovered. Our results indicate that the micrometeorite flux was not elevated during the early Paleocene. Ordinary chondrites dominated over achondritic meteorites similar to the recent flux, but H chondrites dominated over L and LL chondrites (69%, 22%, and 9%, respectively). This H‐chondrite dominance is similar to that recorded within an enigmatic ³He anomaly (70, 27, and 3%) in the Turonian, but different from just before this ³He anomaly and in the early Cretaceous, where ratios are similar to the recent flux (~45%, 45%, and 10%). The K‐Ar isotopic ages of recently fallen H chondrites indicate a small impact event on the H‐chondrite parent body ~50 to 100 Ma ago. We tentatively suggest that this event is recorded by the Turonian ³He anomaly, resulting in an H‐chondrite dominance up to the Paleocene. Our sample spanning the 20 cm above the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) boundary did not yield any spinel grains related to the K–Pg boundary impactor.     

From small sets of GPS trajectories to detailed movement profiles: quantifying personalized trip-dependent movement diversity

ABSTRACT

The ubiquity of personal sensing devices has enabled the collection of large, diverse, and fine-grained spatio-temporal datasets. These datasets facilitate numerous applications from traffic monitoring and management to location-based services. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in profiling individuals' movements for personalized services based on fine-grained trajectory data. Most approaches identify the most representative paths of a user by analyzing coarse location information, e.g., frequently visited places. However, even for trips that share the same origin and destination, individuals exhibit a variety of behaviors (e.g., a school drop detour, a brief stop at a supermarket). The ability to characterize and compare the variability of individuals' fine-grained movement behavior can greatly support location-based services and smart spatial sampling strategies. We propose a TRip DIversity Measure --TRIM – that quantifies the regularity of users' path choice between an origin and destination. TRIM effectively captures the extent of the diversity of the paths that are taken between a given origin and destination pair, and identifies users with distinct movement patterns, while facilitating the comparison of the movement behavior variations between users. Our experiments using synthetic and real datasets and across geographies show the effectiveness of our method.     

Interfacial tension measurements and wettability evaluation for geological CO2 storage

Interfacial interactions, namely interfacial tension, wettability, capillarity and interfacial mass transfer are known to govern fluid distribution and behavior in porous media. Therefore the interfacial interactions between CO₂, brine and oil and/or gas reservoirs have a significant influence on the effectiveness of any CO₂ storage operations. However, data and knowledge of interfacial properties in storage conditions are scarce. This issue becomes particularly true in the case of deep saline aquifers where limited, economically driven, data collection and archiving are available. In this paper, we present a complete set of brine–CO₂ interfacial tension data at pressure, temperature and salinity conditions, representative of a CO₂ storage operation. A semi-empirical correlation is proposed to calculate the interfacial tension from the experimental data. Wettability is studied at pore scale, using glass micromodels in order to track fluids distribution as a function of the thermodynamic properties and wettability conditions for water–CO₂ systems. With this approach, we show that, in strongly hydrophilic porous media, the CO₂ does not wet the solid surface whereas; if the porous media has less hydrophilic properties the CO₂ significantly wets the surface.     

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 1: temperature

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as “field” or “global” significance. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ^° grid resolution. Monthly temperature climatology for the 1990–2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. In winter and in most regions in summer, the downscaled distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones. A systematic cold summer bias occurs in deep river valleys due to overestimated elevations, in coastal areas due probably to enhanced sea breeze circulation, and over large lakes due to the interpolation of water temperatures. Urban areas in concave topography forms have a warm summer bias due to the strong heat islands, not reflected in the observations. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate fine-scale features in the monthly temperature field over regions of complex topography, but over spatially homogeneous areas even small biases can lead to significant deteriorations relative to the driving reanalysis. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.