Ensemble-based conditioning of reservoir models to seismic data

While 3D seismic has been the basis for geological model building for a long time, time-lapse seismic has primarily been used in a qualitative manner to assist in monitoring reservoir behavior. With the growing acceptance of assisted history matching methods has come an equally rising interest in incorporating 3D or time-lapse seismic data into the history matching process in a more quantitative manner. The common approach in recent studies has been to invert the seismic data to elastic or to dynamic reservoir properties, typically acoustic impedance or saturation changes. Here we consider the use of both 3D and time-lapse seismic amplitude data based on a forward modeling approach that does not require any inversion in the traditional sense. Advantages of such an approach may be better estimation and treatment of model and measurement errors, the combination of two inversion steps into one by removing the explicit inversion to state space variables, and more consistent dependence on the validity of assumptions underlying the inversion process. In this paper, we introduce this approach with the use of an assisted history matching method in mind. Two ensemble-based methods, the ensemble Kalman filter and the ensemble randomized maximum likelihood method, are used to investigate issues arising from the use of seismic amplitude data, and possible solutions are presented. Experiments with a 3D synthetic reservoir model show that additional information on the distribution of reservoir fluids, and on rock properties such as porosity and permeability, can be extracted from the seismic data. The role for localization and iterative methods are discussed in detail.     

Dynamics of an outburst flood originating from a small and high-altitude glacier in the Arid Andes of Chile

The rise of total water levels at the coast is caused primarily by three factors that encompass storm surges, tides and wind waves. The accuracy of total water elevation (TWE) forecast depends not only on the cyclonic track and its intensity, but also on the spatial distribution of winds which include its speed and direction. In the present study, the cyclonic winds are validated using buoy winds for the recent cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal since 2010 using Jelesnianski wind scheme. It is found that the cyclonic winds computed from the scheme show an underestimate in the magnitude and also a mismatch in its direction. Hence, the wind scheme is suitably modified based on the buoy observations available at different locations using a power law which reduces the exponential decay of winds by about 30%. Moreover, the cyclonic wind direction is also corrected by suitably modifying its inflow angle. The significance of modified exponential factor and inflow angle in the computation cyclonic winds is highlighted using statistical analysis. A hydrodynamic finite element-based Advanced Circulation 2D depth integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) model is used here to compute TWE as a response to combined effect of cyclonic winds and astronomical tides. As contribution of wave setup plays an important role near the coast, a coupled ADCIRC + SWAN is used to perceive the contribution of wind waves on the TWE. The experiments are performed to validate computed surge residuals with available tide gauge data. On comparison of observed surge residuals with the simulations using modified winds from the uncoupled and coupled models, it is found that the simulated surge residuals are better compared, especially with the inclusion of wave effect through the coupled model.     

Multiple Quaternary erosion and infill cycles in overdeepened basins of the northern Alpine foreland

The cumulative effect of repeated extensive glaciations represents a poorly constrained component in the understanding of landscape evolution in mid-latitude mountain ranges such as the Alps. Timing, extent, and paleo-climatic conditions of these glaciations are generally poorly understood due to the often-fragmentary character of terrestrial Quaternary records. In this context, the sedimentary infills of subglacial basins may serve as important archives to complement the Quaternary stratigraphy over several glacial–interglacial cycles. In this study, sedimentary facies, valley-fill architecture, and luminescence dating are used to describe nine erosional and depositional cycles (Formations A–I) in the Lower Glatt valley, northern Switzerland. These cycles can be related to the ‘Birrfeld’ Glaciation (~ MIS2), the ‘Beringen’ Glaciation (~ MIS6), and up to three earlier Middle Pleistocene glaciations that can be tentatively correlated to the regional glaciation history. Evidence suggests that deep bedrock trough incision and/or partial re-excavation last occurred mainly during the ‘Beringen’ and ‘Habsburg’ Glaciations. Second-order, ‘inlaid’ glacial basins document separate glacier re-advances during the Beringen Glaciation. The arrangement of subglacial basins in the Glatt valley with different sub-parallel or bifurcating bedrock troughs, re-excavated segments, and inlaid basins document changes in the magnitude and the spatial focus of subglacial erosion over time. The Glatt valley may thus serve as a key example for the glacial landscape evolution in many other repeatedly glaciated forelands.     

Late Miocene to Pliocene stratigraphy of the Kura Basin,a subbasin of the South Caspian Basin: implications for the diachroneity of stage boundaries

Relative ages of late Cenozoic stratigraphy throughout the Caspian region are referenced to regional stages that are defined by changes in microfauna and associated extreme (>1000 m) variations in Caspian base level. However, the absolute ages of these stage boundaries may be significantly diachronous because many are based on the first occurrence of either transgressive or regressive facies, the temporal occurrence of which should depend on position within a basin. Here, we estimate the degree of diachroneity along the Akchagyl regional stage boundary within the Caspian basin system by presenting two late Miocene‐Pliocene aged measured sections, Sarica and Vashlovani, separated by 50 km and exposed within the Kura fold‐thrust belt in the interior of the Kura Basin. The Kura Basin is a western subbasin of the South Caspian Basin and the sections presented here are located >250 km from the modern Caspian coast. New U‐Pb detrital zircon ages from the Sarica section constrain the maximum depositional age for Productive Series strata, a lithostratigraphic package considered correlative with the 2–3 Myr‐long regional Eoakchagylian or Kimmerian stage that corresponds to a period of extremely low (>500 m below the modern level) Caspian base level. This new maximum depositional age from the Productive Series at Sarica of 2.5 ± 0.2 Ma indicates that the regionally extensive Akchagyl transgression, which ended the deposition of the Productive Series near the Caspian coast at 3.2 Ma, may have appeared a minimum of 0.5 Myr later in the northern interior of the Kura Basin than at the modern Caspian Sea coast. The results of this work have important implications for the tectonic and stratigraphic history of the region, suggesting that the initiation of the Plio‐Pleistocene Kura fold‐thrust belt may have not been as diachronous along strike as previously hypothesized. More generally, these results also provide a measure of the magnitude of diachroneity possible along sequence boundaries, particularly in isolated basins. Comparison of accumulation rates between units in the interior of the Kura subbasin and the South Caspian main basin suggest that extremely large variations in these rates within low‐stand deposits may be important in identifying the presence of subbasins in older stratigraphic packages.     

Nature and timing of the Solonker suture of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt: insights from geochronology and geochemistry of basic intrusions in the Xilin Gol Complex,Inner Mongolia,China

The Solonker suture zone of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB) records the final closure of the Paleo-Asian Ocean. The nature and timing of final collision along the Solonker suture has long been controversial, partly because of an incomplete record of isotopic ages and differing interpretations of the geological environments of key tectonic units. The Xilin Gol Complex, consisting of strongly deformed gneisses, schists and amphibolites, is such a key tectonic unit within the CAOB. Lenticular or quasi-lamellar amphibolites are dispersed throughout the complex, intercalated with biotite–plagioclase gneiss. Both rock types experienced amphibolite-facies metamorphism. The protolith of the amphibolite is a basic rock that intruded into the biotite–plagioclase gneiss at 319 ± 4 Ma based on LA-ICPMS zircon U–Pb dating. The basic intrusion was sourced from a modified magma that experienced crystal fractionation and was admixed with slab-derived fluids. The slab-derived fluids, which formed during Early Paleozoic oceanic subduction along the north-dipping Sonidzuoqi–Xilinhot subduction zone, mixed with the magma source and produced subduction-related geochemical signatures superimposed on volcanic arc chemistry. After Early Paleozoic oceanic subduction and arc-continent collision, a transient stage of extension occurred between 313 and 280 Ma in the Sonidzuoqi–Xilinhot area. Deformation and recrystallization during the switch from compression to extension and reheating by the later magmatic intrusions reset the isotope systems of minerals in the Xilin Gol Complex, recorded by a 312.2 ± 1.5 Ma biotite ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age from biotite–plagioclase gneiss, a 309 ± 12 Ma zircon intercept age and a 307.5 ± 3.5 Ma hornblende ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age from amphibolites in the complex. There was an arc/forearc-related marine basin at the southern margin of the Xilin Gol Complex during the Permian. The closure of the oceanic basin led to Late Paleozoic–Middle Triassic north-dipping subduction beneath the Xilin Gol Complex and induced the amphibolite-facies metamorphism of the complex. The final suturing of the Solonker zone occurred from 269 to 231 Ma. This latest amphibolite-facies metamorphism with pressures of 0.31–0.39 GPa and temperatures of 620–660 °C was recorded at 263.4 ± 1.4 Ma to the Xilin Gol Complex, as indicated by the hornblende ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age from the amphibolites, as well as several zircon ages of 260 ± 3–231 ± 3 Ma. The Xilin Gol Complex documented the progressive accretion of a single, long-lived subduction system at the southern margin of the south Mongolian microcontinent from the Early Paleozoic (~452 Ma) to Middle Triassic (~231 Ma). The CAOB shows protracted collision prior to final suturing.     

Resolving frontal structures: on the payoff using a less diffusive but computationally more expensive advection scheme

This article presents some advantages using a shape-preserving total variation diminishing (TVD) advection scheme in an ecosystem model. The superbee flux-limiter has been used to the second-order Lax–Wendroff advection scheme to make it TVD. We performed simulations for three shelf sea regions with different characteristic time scales, namely, the North Sea, the Barents Sea, and the Baltic Sea. To explore the advantages, we also performed reference runs with the much simpler and computationally cheaper upwind advection scheme. Frontal structures are much better resolved with the TVD scheme. The bottom salinity in the Baltic Sea stays at realistic values throughout the 10-year simulation with the TVD scheme, while with the upwind scheme, it drifts towards lower values and the permanent haline stratification in the Baltic is almost completely eroded within one seasonal cycle. Only when applying TVD for both the vertical and horizontal advections the model succeeded to preserve haline stratification in the decadal simulation. Lower trophic level patterns are far better reproduced with the TVD scheme, and for the estimated cod larval survival, the advantages seem to be even stronger. Simulations using the TVD-derived prey fields identified distinct regions such as Dogger Bank to favor potential larvae survival (PLS), which did not appear as particularly favorable in the upstream simulations. The TVD scheme needs about 25 % more time on the central processing unit (CPU) in case of a pure hydrodynamic setup with only two scalar state variables (Barents Sea application). The additional CPU time cost increases for a coupled physical–biological model application with a large number of state variables. However, this is more than compensated by all the advantages found, and, hence, we conclude that it is worthwhile to use the TVD scheme in our ecosystem model.

     

Distribution patterns of subsurface copepods and the impact of environmental parameters

The ecosystem dynamics in the vadose zone, the unsaturated layer between the surface and the groundwater table, was studied in five caves located in northwestern Romania. Hypogean and epigean copepod assemblages collected in drip water and in the associated pools were analyzed over a period of 12 and 7 months, respectively. The temporal variation of fauna in both habitats was related to a series of environmental parameters (pH, temperature, electrical conductivity, forest cover, precipitation, type of limestone, hydrographic basin, substrate and volume of the pools). Canonical Correspondence Analysis was used to explore the relationships. Over the year, total abundances in pools were much lower than the abundances observed in drips and showed steep raising values in December only. It is shown that forest cover might be one of the most important driving factor influencing the copepod diversity and abundance. Occurrence of epigean species underground was influenced by precipitation and drip rates. The occurrence of hypogean species was related to electrical conductivity, as an indicator of residence time of water in the vadose zone. Pools on limestone harbored a more diverse and abundant fauna than those with clay sediments. Pools with calcite precipitation were preferred by hypogean species.     

Procedure of embedding biological action functions into the atmospheric transmittance

In order to perform calculations of biologically effective irradiance, the usual procedure is to modulate the ground-measured spectral solar irradiance with a specific biological action function. The inconvenience is that only a few meteorological stations worldwide are equipped to measure the spectral solar irradiance in the ultraviolet range. This motivates the search for a numerical substitute, which constitutes the subject of this report. An innovative approach based on generalized mean is used to infer the effective atmospheric transmittance. Its illustration resulted in a new parametric model for computing the biological dose under clear sky. The action spectrum for the growth response of plants, as a carrier of biological effects, is encapsulated into the atmospheric transmittance, leading to the calculation of the effective irradiance by simple algebra. The overall results indicate that the new parametric model performs accurately enough to be routinely used in practice. The procedure is general; therefore, it is described in detail to guide potential users in developing similar models incorporating other biological action spectra as needed. For speed-intensive applications, an executable file intended to run on any PC, which computes the effective irradiance with the proposed model, is provided.     

The global modulation of Galactic and Jovian electrons in the heliosphere

A full three-dimensional, numerical model is used to study the modulation of Jovian and Galactic electrons from 1 MeV to 50 GeV, and from the Earth into the heliosheath. For this purpose the very local interstellar spectrum and the Jovian electron source spectrum are revisited. It is possible to compute the former with confidence at kinetic energies \(E < 50~\mbox{MeV}\) since Voyager 1 crossed the heliopause in 2012 at \(\sim 122~\mbox{AU}\), measuring Galactic electrons at these energies. Modeling results are compared with Voyager 1 observations in the outer heliosphere, including the heliosheath, as well as observations at or near the Earth from the ISSE3 mission, and in particular the solar minimum spectrum from the PAMELA space mission for 2009, also including data from Ulysses for 1991 and 1992, and observations above 1 MeV from SOHO/EPHIN. Making use of the observations at or near the Earth and the two newly derived input functions for the Jovian and Galactic electrons respectively, the energy range over which the Jovian electrons dominate the Galactic electrons is determined so that the intensity of Galactic electrons at Earth below 100 MeV is calculated. The differential intensity for the Galactic electrons at Earth for \(E = 1~\mbox{MeV}\) is \(\sim 4\) electrons \(\mbox{m}^{-2}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\,\mbox{sr}^{-1}\,\mbox{MeV}^{-1}\), whereas for Jovian electrons it is \(\sim 350\) electrons \(\mbox{m}^{-2}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\,\mbox{sr}^{-1}\,\mbox{MeV}^{-1}\). At \(E = 30~\mbox{MeV}\) the two intensities are the same; above this energy the Jovian electron intensity quickly subsides so that the Galactic intensity completely dominates. At 6 MeV, in the equatorial plane the Jovian electrons dominate but beyond \(\sim 15~\mbox{AU}\) the Galactic intensity begins to exceed the Jovian intensity significantly.