European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations

Two European temperature reconstructions for the past half-millennium, January-to-April air temperature for Stockholm (Sweden) and seasonal temperature for a Central European region, both derived from the analysis of documentary sources and long instrumental records, are compared with the output of climate simulations with the model ECHO-G. The analysis is complemented by comparisons with the long (early)-instrumental record of Central England Temperature (CET). Both approaches to study past climates (simulations and reconstructions) are burdened with uncertainties. The main objective of this comparative analysis is to identify robust features and weaknesses in each method which may help to improve models and reconstruction methods. The results indicate a general agreement between simulations obtained with temporally changing external forcings and the reconstructed Stockholm and CET records for the multi-centennial temperature trend over the recent centuries, which is not reproduced in a control simulation. This trend is likely due to the long-term change in external forcing. Additionally, the Stockholm reconstruction and the CET record also show a clear multi-decadal warm episode peaking around AD 1730, which is absent in the simulations. Neither the reconstruction uncertainties nor the model internal climate variability can easily explain this difference. Regarding the interannual variability, the Stockholm series displays, in some periods, higher amplitudes than the simulations but these differences are within the statistical uncertainty and further decrease if output from a regional model driven by the global model is used. The long-term trend of the CET series agrees less well with the simulations. The reconstructed temperature displays, for all seasons, a smaller difference between the present climate and past centuries than is seen in the simulations. Possible reasons for these differences may be related to a limitation of the traditional ‘indexing’ technique for converting documentary evidence to temperature values to capture long-term climate changes, because the documents often reflect temperatures relative to the contemporary authors’ own perception of what constituted ‘normal’ conditions. By contrast, the amplitude of the simulated and reconstructed inter-annual variability agrees rather well.     

Influence of water flux and redox conditions on chlorobenzene concentrations in a contaminated streambed

Significant natural attenuation may occur on the passage of groundwater plumes through streambed sediments because of the transition from anaerobic to aerobic conditions and an increased microbial activity. Varying directions and magnitudes of water flow in the streambed may enhance or inhibit the supply of oxygen to the streambed and thus influence the redox zoning. In a field study at a small stream in the industrial area of Bitterfeld‐Wolfen, we observed the variability of hydraulic gradients, streambed temperatures, redox conditions and monochlorobenzene (MCB) concentrations in the streambed over the course of 5 months. During the observation period, the hydrologic conditions changed from losing to gaining. Accordingly, the temperature‐derived water fluxes changed from recharge to discharge. Redox conditions were highly variable between ? 170 and 368 mV in the shallow streambed at a depth of 0·1 m below the streambed surface. Deeper in the streambed, at depths of 0·3 m and 0·5 m, the redox conditions were more stable between ? 198 and ? 81 mV and comparable to those typically found in the aquifer. MCB concentrations in the streambed at 0·3 and 0·5 m depth increased with increasing upward water flux. The MCB concentrations in the shallow streambed at 0·1 m depth appeared to be independent of the hydrologic conditions suggesting that degradation of MCB may have occured. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Data Integration Issues for a Farm Decision Support System

This paper explores data integration and compatibility issues raised during the development of a prototype spatial decision support system (SDSS) as a support tool for the farm manager of the University of Central Lancashire's farm at Newton Rigg and as a teaching resource for staff and students on campus. Metadata concerns and interoperability problems are addressed in detail. The paper outlines the proposed model for the SDSS and issues identified during the investigation of the users’ requirements and the analysis of the underlying spatial data sets. The initial data issues relate to the identification of existing and missing data sets ( Parker et al. 1996 ) and the creation of metadata describing the data sets. The second area to be explored concerns interoperability issues. This is relevant when users must access more than one dataset using distributed computing resources ( Sondheim et al. 1999 ).     

Halogen geochemistry of the McMurdo dry valleys lakes, Antarctica: Clues to the origin of solutes and lake evolution

We have determined the halogen and boron concentrations in the ice-covered lakes of Taylor Valley, Antarctica, to better establish the sources of salts and evolutionary histories of these unusual water bodies. In addition, we report on a series of ¹²⁹I measurements that were compared with previous ³⁶Cl data that also help constrain the source of solutes and histories of the lakes. The new data, when put into context of previous work on these systems over the past forty years, allow us to make the following conclusions. The primary source of solutes to Lake Hoare, the youngest of the lakes, is the dissolution of marine aerosols and aeolian salts and the chemical weathering of dust on the glaciers. The geochemistry of Lake Fryxell, the brackish water lake, is primarily dominated by the diffusion from a halite-saturated brine at the sediment-water interface and the recent infilling of the lake by glacier meltwater. These waters have chemical weathering and marine aerosols components. Lake Bonney has two distinct lobes whose hypersaline hypolimnia have different chemistries. Both of the lobes are remnants of ancient marine waters that have been modified by the input of weathering products. This lake has also been modified by periods of cryogenic concentration when solutes have been lost via mineral precipitation. Thus the geochemistry of Lake Bonney owes its unusual geochemistry, in part, to variations in the climate in the Taylor Valley over at least the past 300kyr. The ¹²⁹I data from the Taylor Valley are similar to those from fracture fluids in crystalline rocks from the Northern Hemisphere.     

Fractionation change of hydrogen isotopes in trees due to atmospheric pollutants

Atmospheric pollution effects on hydrogen fractionation in trees are demonstrated for the first time in this study. The δ²H ring-cellulose series obtained for black spruce trees at a site near a SO₂-emitting smelter display short-term fluctuations superimposed on a first order −11‰ shift coincident with the onset of smelter operations. The isotopic depletion in trees exposed to various levels of SO₂ diminish with increasing distance relative to the location of the smelter, and it is not detected at the most distant selected stand, 116 km downwind from the point source. Both the spatial and temporal isotopic trends likely result from the combined effects of leaf transpiration, biochemical processes and water uptake by the root system. The spatial and temporal trends of δ²H values are the reverse of the δ¹³C trends previously obtained for the same tree ring series. These coupled isotopic fractionations underline an important response of trees to pollution stresses likely generated by ambient atmospheric SO₂ concentrations. The degradation of global air quality during the last 150 yr likely generated large scale modifications in the way terrestrial vegetation grows. In this respect, hydrogen dendrogeochemistry combined with other tracers such as C isotope ratios constitutes a new tool to evaluate the past behavior of forest ecosystems in terms of C uptake and acclimation to various types of atmospheric pollution.     

Remote and in situ plume measurements of acid gas release from La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe

This paper presents the first remote measurements of La Soufrière gas emissions since the fumarolic and seismic reactivation in 1992. The chemical composition of the plumes has been measured from May 2003 to September 2004 using an Open Path Fourier Transform InfraRed (OP-FTIR) spectrometer, up to 15 m downwind the South Crater. HCl is clearly detected (concentration between 2.4 and 12 ppmv) whereas SO₂ and H₂S generally remain below the detection limit of the OP-FTIR. Direct measurements of SO₂ and H₂S near the South Crater with a Lancom III analyzer show a fast decrease of their concentrations with the distance. Calculated Cl / S mass ratios are high: from 9.4 ± 1.7 at 15 m from the vent to 2.8 ± 0.6 at 140 m. The enrichment in HCl of the gas emitted at La Soufrière, observed since 1998, corresponds to the degassing of a magma enriched in Cl and depleted in S. This result agrees with isotopic measurements which suggest a magmatic origin of the gases. Readjustments inside the volcanic system may have taken place during the seismic activity beginning in 1992 and enhance the transfer of magmatic gases to the summit.     

TSIP中期地震预报方法在辽宁地区的应用与研究

本文用ＣＮ算法研究了辽宁省两个地震重点监视防御区的中强震前的强震发生概率增长时间,结果表明预测效果较好,有震报准率为９０％,ＴＩＰ预测警戒占时空率为３０％左右,Ｒ值评分为０．６左右。在ＴＩＰ预测的基础上,进一步用ＳＩＰ方法分析这两个区域的空间背景发震概率的不均匀分布。综合应用ＴＩＰ方法和ＳＩＰ方法,对辽宁省及邻近地区进行了试验性地震预报。     

Migration and household change in the population aged 65 and over, 1971-1991

"This analysis uses the ONS [Office for National Statistics] Longitudinal Study, a record linkage study including individual-level data from three national Censuses (1971, 1981 and 1991) and linked vital registration data, to examine migration patterns among older people [in Great Britain]. The aims of this study are to examine regional differences in household composition, to look at changes in the relationship between household change and migration over time, and finally, to analyse the interrelationships between changes in household composition, health and migration in the 1981-91 period.... Despite...dramatic changes in the living arrangements of older people, results show that mobility among the elderly remained relatively stable between the 1971-81 and 1981-91 decades."     

Dating fluvial terraces by Th/U on pedogenic carbonate, Wind River Basin, Wyoming

Reliable and precise ages of Quaternary pedogenic carbonate can be obtained with ²³⁰Th/U dating by thermal ionization mass spectrometry applied to carefully selected milligram-size samples. Datable carbonate can form within a few thousand years of surface stabilization allowing ages of Quaternary deposits and surfaces to be closely estimated. Pedogenic carbonate clast-rinds from gravels of glacio-fluvial terraces in the Wind River Basin have median concentrations of 14 ppm U and 0.07 ppm ²³²Th, with median (²³⁰Th/²³²Th) = 270, making them well suited for ²³⁰Th/U dating. Horizons as thin as 0.5 mm were sampled from polished slabs to reduce averaging of long (≥10⁵ yr), and sometimes visibly discontinuous, depositional histories. Dense, translucent samples with finite ²³⁰Th/U ages preserve within-rind stratigraphic order in all cases. Ages for terraces WR4 (167,000 ± 6,400 yr) and WR2 (55,000 ± 8600 yr) indicate a mean incision rate of 0.26 ± 0.05 m per thousand years for the Wind River over the past glacial cycle, slower than inferred from cosmogenic-nuclide dating. Terrace WR3, which formed penecontemporaneously with the final maximum glacial advance of the penultimate Rocky Mountain (Bull Lake) glaciation, has an age of 150,000 ± 8300 yr indicating that it is broadly synchronous with the penultimate global ice volume maximum.     

Crustal make-up of the northern Andes: evidence based on deep crustal xenolith suites, Mercaderes, SW Colombia

Samples of the deep crust and upper mantle in the Northern Andes occur as abundant xenoliths in the Granatífera Tuff, a late Cenozoic vent in the Mercaderes area of SW Colombia. The lower crustal assemblage includes granulites, hornblendites, pyribolites, pyroxenites and gneisses; mafic rocks predominate, but felsic material is also common. P–T conditions for the pyribolite assemblages (i.e. Hbl+Fs/Scp+Grt+Cpx+Qtz±Bt), which are the best constrained, are 720–850 °C and 10–14 kbar, consistent with a deep-to-lower crustal origin. A notable feature of this xenolith suite is that it is dominated by hornblende. However, mineral reactions within the suite show that there is a transition from amphibolite to granulite facies, and there is a probable restite–melt relationship represented within the suite. However, the latter appears to be dominated by hornblende and garnet.The mafic rocks mostly lack the high Cr and Ni that would be expected of cumulates. Neither do they possess the positive Sr and Eu anomalies that would be consistent with resite or cumulate models for the lower crust. They bear greatest similarity to oceanic basalts (s.l.). The Rb contents of the xenoliths, whether mafic or silicic, are very low, and the more silicic members of the suite tend to have small positive Sr and Eu anomalies, which are transitional to adakitic compositions. The Sr isotopic compositions of the xenoliths lie between 0.704 and 0.705; however, the Nd isotopic compositions are much more variable, indicating considerable long-term heterogeneity. Few of the xenoliths can be compositionally recognised as metasedimentary; however, a sedimentary component is evident in the Pb isotopic compositions. Within these constraints, our favoured model is a deep crust formed by basaltic components (subduction–accretion?), and minor sediment, which is subject to an increase in thermal gradient to produce the granulites, any melting being dominated by hornblende-out reactions involving garnet. However, there is no evidence of any pervasive crustal melting, leading to the conclusion that the voluminous Andean magmatism arises from the mantle wedge.