Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter λ to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.     

Using semivariogram parameter uncertainty in hydrogeological applications

Geostatistical estimation (kriging) and geostatistical simulation are routinely used in ground water hydrology for optimal spatial interpolation and Monte Carlo risk assessment, respectively. Both techniques are based on a model of spatial variability (semivariogram or covariance) that generally is not known but must be inferred from the experimental data. Where the number of experimental data is small (say, several tens), as is not unusual in ground water hydrology, the model fitted to the empirical semivariogram entails considerable uncertainty. If all the practical results are based on this unique fitted model, the final results will be biased. We propose that, instead of using a unique semivariogram model, the full range of models that are inside a given confidence region should be used, and the weight that each semivariogram model has on the final result should depend on its plausibility. The first task, then, is to evaluate the uncertainty of the model, which can be efficiently done by using maximum likelihood inference. The second task is to use the range of plausible models in applications and to show the effect observed on the final results. This procedure is put forth here with kriging and simulation applications, where the uncertainty in semivariogram parameters is propagated into the final results (e.g., the prediction of ground water head). A case study using log-transmissivity data from the Vega de Granada aquifer, in southern Spain, is given to illustrate the methodology.     

Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island,Antarctica

Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding.     

Sulle correnti telluriche nelle regioni equatoriali

Riassunto Si espongono i risultati delle osservazioni sulle correnti telluriche eseguite a Mogadiscio nel 1933 con misure delle due componenti NS ed EW, traendone alcune deduzioni che permettono di precisarne le caratteristiche, specie nei confronti del relativo andamento diurno.

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Summary The paper deals with the results of the earth-current-observations made at Mogadiscio during 1933. The analysis reveal elements for a new picture of the distribution of the earth-currents in the equatorial regions, particularly concerning the daily variation.

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Zusammenfassung Die Ergebnisse des Erdstrom-Beobachtungen durchgeführt in einigen Monaten des Jahres 1933 in Modagiscio sind angegeben. Aus des Diskussion folgen einige Elemente die eine Neubearbeitung des Darstellung des Erdstrom-Verteilung in dem äquatorialem Gürtel nötig machen und dazu dienen werden sollen. besonders in Beziehung auf den täglichen Gang.

     

Influence of Redox Mediators and Electron Donors on the Anaerobic Removal of Color and Chemical Oxygen Demand from Textile Effluent

Color removal was evaluated in anaerobic assays using synthetic (SE) and real (RE) effluents containing the dye Direct Black 22 (DB22). The focus was on the individual influence of two electron donors (EDs), sucrose and ethanol; and their combination with two redox mediators (RMs), lawsone and riboflavin. In addition to SE assays, the EDs were combined with sulfate which was present in the RE. Distinct behavior was observed with both assays. In the case of SE, using the EDs sucrose and ethanol resulted in DB22 removal efficiency of 93 and 83%, respectively; but only 27% in the control. The respective removal rates were 27.8‐ and 4.4‐fold higher than that of the control. Using the EDs with the RM lawsone resulted in color removal higher than that with riboflavin. Interestingly, in the ethanol + sulfate assay, late release of the last was observed, possibly due to the desulfonation reaction of the aromatic structures during the DB22 molecule breakdown. In the case of RE, no improvement was observed with either EDs; and some combinations with the RMs even resulted in decreased color removal. Therefore, the used EDs and RMs showed positive effect on color removal in SEs; but unexpectedly not in REs.     

Groundwater chemistry of strike slip faulted aquifers: the case study of Wadi Zerka Ma’in aquifers, north east of the Dead Sea

Wadi Zerka Ma’in catchment area is located to the north east of the Dead Sea. It has two types of aquifers: (a) an upper unconfined aquifer and (b) a lower confined aquifer. The two aquifers are separated by a marl aquiclude. A major strike slip fault passes perpendicularly through the two aquifers and the aquiclude layer with embedded normal faults. The aim of the study was to specify the effect of the major strike slip fault on the groundwater chemistry. The spatial variability of the hydrochemical compositions and physiochemical parameters of the groundwater were investigated. It was found that the embedded normal faults, of the strike slip fault, form conduits that allow groundwater to flow from the lower aquifer to the upper aquifer, resulting in mixed groundwater. The ratio of mixing was estimated to be 94 % groundwater from the upper aquifer and 6 % from the lower aquifer. Since groundwater in the lower aquifer is around three times more saline than the upper aquifer, water mixing into the upper water aquifer generates a salinity hazard.     

The relationship between reference canopy conductance and simplified hydraulic architecture

Terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by vascular plants that form a mosaic of hydraulic conduits to water movement from the soil to the atmosphere. Together with canopy leaf area, canopy stomatal conductance regulates plant water use and thereby photosynthesis and growth. Although stomatal conductance is coordinated with plant hydraulic conductance, governing relationships across species has not yet been formulated at a practical level that can be employed in large-scale models. Here, combinations of published conductance measurements obtained with several methodologies across boreal to tropical climates were used to explore relationships between canopy conductance rates and hydraulic constraints. A parsimonious hydraulic model requiring sapwood-to-leaf area ratio and canopy height generated acceptable agreement with measurements across a range of biomes (r²=0.75)$(r^2=0.75)$. The results suggest that, at long time scales, the functional convergence among ecosystems in the relationship between water-use and hydraulic architecture eclipses inter-specific variation in physiology and anatomy of the transport system. Prognostic applicability of this model requires independent knowledge of sapwood-to-leaf area. In this study, we did not find a strong relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and physical or climatic variables that are readily determinable at coarse scales, though the results suggest that climate may have a mediating influence on the relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and height. Within temperate forests, canopy height alone explained a large amount of the variance in reference canopy conductance (r²=0.68)$(r^2=0.68)$ and this relationship may be more immediately applicable in the terrestrial ecosystem models.     

Solar constant and sunspots

Summary The relationship, already found by the authors, between sunspot numbers and the solar constant, as deduced from the highest global irradiance values at noon, is here reexamined and confirmed. Some attempts at explanation and further inferences are presented.     

Crustal attenuation in the Southern Andean retroarc (38°–39°30′ S) determined from tectonic and gravimetric studies: The Lonco-Luán asthenospheric anomaly

The western retroarc of the Southern Andes between 38° and 40° S is formed by a NNW-elongated ridge not associated with stacked thrust sheets. On the contrary, during the last 4–3 Ma this ridge was affected by extensional deformation, regional uplift and related folding on a very broad scale. Receiver function analysis shows that the drainage divide area and adjacent retroarc lie over an attenuated crust. Expected crustal thickness at these latitudes is around 38 km, whereas in this part of the retroarc the thickness is less than 32 km. The causes for such attenuation have been linked to a moderate steepening of the subducted Nazca plate beneath the South American plate, which is suggested by a westward shift and narrowing of the magmatic arc during the last 4 to 5 Ma. Gravimetric studies show that the upper plate did not react homogeneously to slab steepening, but ancient sutures and lithospheric discontinuities deeply buried under Mesozoic to Cenozoic sequences in the retroarc were locally reactivated. These processes resulted in an asthenospheric anomaly that correlates at the surface with the area of Pliocene to Quaternary doming, widespread extension and three radial troughs. Two of the troughs have accommodated substantial amounts of extension, but the third was probably aborted at an early stage. Moreover, the presence of an anomalous concentration of calderas and large volcanic centers over the proposed asthenospheric anomaly, and their age distribution, may indicate minor migration of the asthenospheric anomaly between 4 and 2 Ma through the western South American plate.