Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

Calculating the two-dimensional magnetotelluric Jacobian in finite elements using reciprocity

To speed up the calculation of the field Jacobian for 2-D magnetoteliuric inversion using finite elements, the principle of electromagnetic reciprocity is applied. The governing relationship for the Jacobian of the field along strike is obtained by differentiating the Helmholtz equation with respect to the resistivity of each region in the finite-element mesh. The result is a similar Helmholtz equation for the Jacobian, with new sources distributed over all nodes within the parameter medium. However, according to the principle of electromagnetic reciprocity, the roles of sources and receivers are interchangeable. Utilizing reciprocity, the field values obtained from the original forward problem and for new unit sources imposed at the receivers are then utilized in the calculation of the Jacobian by simple multiplication and summation with finite-element terms at each rectangle in the mesh. For the auxiliary (across-strike) fields, the Jacobian terms are obtained by solving source vectors loaded with parabola coefficients used in the approximation to Maxwell's equations. Jacobian terms for the apparent resistivity ( p _a), the impedance phase (φ) and the vertical magnetic field ( K _zy) are then calculated utilizing the parallel- and auxiliary-field Jacobians. Comparison of Jacobian values obtained from reciprocity calculations and by differencing two forward solutions show that the reciprocity method is accurate and can be used to decrease the number of calculations required to obtain sensitivities by one to two orders of magnitude.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Corona textures in Proterozoic olivine melanorites of the Equeefa Suite,Natal Metamorphic Province,South Africa

Summary Olivine-plagioclase and phlogopite-plagioclase coronas have been identified from olivine melanorites of the Mid- to Late Proterozoic Equeefa Suite in southern Natal, South Africa. Olivine, in contact with plagioclase, is mantled by a shell of clear orthopyroxene, in turn rimmed by pale green (pargasitic) clinoamphibole. Locally a third rim, composed of a fine pargasite-spinel symplectite is developed adjacent to the plagioclase. The second corona reaction has produced greenish-brown pargasite at phlogopite-plagioclase interfaces. A third, less obvious reaction, between olivine and phlogopite is also noted. Analytical data of all the mineral phases present, along with the coronas, are given. Two-pyroxene thermometry yields magmatic core temperatures ( 1120°C), with rim compositions indicating equilibration at 850°C. Consistent with this, the modelled olivine-plagioclase reaction occurs between 830–1050°C with a_waterbetween 0.1 and 1.0 at 7 kbar. The three reactions took place during a prolonged history of cooling and partial hydration of the magmatic olivine melanorites from over 1000°C down to 600°C. The P-T conditions indicated by the reactions suggest this cooling process was essentially isobaric, indicating that the area was not subjected to rapid uplift or burial throughout this entire period.

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Korona-Texturen in proterozoischen Olivin-Melanoriten der Equeefa Suite, Natal Metamorphic Province, Südafrika

Zusammenfassung Aus Olivin-Melanoriten der mittel- bis spätproterozoischen Equeefa Suite im südlichen Natal, Südafrika, wurden Olivin-Plagioklas und Phlogopit-Plagioklas-Koronartexturen beobachtet. Olivin, der mit Plagioklas im Kontakt steht, wird von einem klaren Saum vom Orthopyroxen ummantelt, der seinerseits von blaßgrünem (pargasitischem) Klinoamphibol umsäumt wird. Stellenweise ist ein dritter Saum, bestehend aus feinkörnigem symplektitischem Pargasit-Spinell im Kontakt mit Plagioklas ausgebildet. Die zweite koronabildende Reaktion resultiert in Bildung eines grünbraunen Pargasites an Phlogopit-Plagioklas Kornkontakten. Eine dritte, weniger auffällige Reaktion zwischen Olivin und Phlogopit wurde ebenfalls beobachtet. Zwei-Pyroxen-Thermometrie ergab magmatische Temperaturen der Kernbereiche ( 1120°C) und belegt eine Gleichgewichtseinstellung in den Randzonen bei ca. 850°C. Olivin-Plagioklas-Modellreaktionen liegen ebenfalls in einem Temperaturbereich von 830–1050°C bei Wasseraktivitäten von 0.1 bis 1.0 und einem Druck von 7 kbar. Die drei Reaktionen liefen im Zuge einer länger andauernden Abkühlung unter teilweiser Hydratisierung der magmatischen Melanorite in einem Temperaturbereich von 1000°C bis ca. 600°C ab. Die aus den Reaktionen ableitbaren P-T-Bedingungen sprechen für eine im wesentlichen isobare Abkhlungsgeschichte und zeigen, daß dieses Gebiet wáhrend dieser gesamten Periode keiner raschen Hebung bzw. keiner Versenkung unterworfen worden ist.

     

Comparative study of sampling methods and in situ and laboratory analysis for shallow-water submarine hydrothermal systems

A primary aim for sampling of submarine hydrothermal vents is to minimize inclusion of ambient seawater. Here, we compare the results of three different sampling methods (air displacement, two-valve bottle, and syringes) for shallow submarine systems. Mixing of hydrothermal fluid with seawater is unavoidable; however, calculations based on linear mixing models allow estimation of the hydrothermal fluid end-member composition. The results show that sampling with a two-valve bottle and syringes are the best options because they allow collection of samples with a large proportion of hydrothermal fluid. Additionally, we compare the results of in situ and laboratory analyses of the fluid samples, and demonstrate that determination of chemical composition in situ is the best option for some components, as re-equilibration affects some component concentrations (i.e. bicarbonate). Conversely, silica determination in situ usually underestimates the concentration in the fluid, as it does not account for polymeric silica. Other components can be measured either in the field or in the laboratory.     

Low-grade metamorphic rocks from the Pulur complex,NE Turkey: implications for the pre-Liassic evolution of the Eastern Pontides

In the Pulur complex (Sakarya Zone, Eastern Pontides, Turkey) a low-grade tectonometamorphic unit (Doankavak) is exposed in three tectonic windows beneath a complex medium-pressure high-temperature metamorphic unit of late Carboniferous age. The thrust plane between both units is transgressively covered by Liassic conglomerates. The Doankavak unit comprises a sequence of metabasites with MORB-type chemical compositions and phyllites, with subordinate calcareous phyllites, marbles, quarzofeldspathic schists and metacherts. This sequence is interpreted as a former accretionary complex related to the consumption of the Palaeotethys. Mineral parageneses in the metabasites allow for the distinction of two domains with slightly different peak metamorphic conditions, i.e. 375–425 °C/0.5–0.8 GPa (greenschist facies) and 400–470 °C/0.6–1.1 GPa (albite-epidote amphibolite facies). The age of metamorphism is constrained at ~ 260 Ma (early Late Permian) by two Rb-Sr mineral-whole rock ages (hornblende, phengite) and one ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar single step total fusion age (phengite). In conjunction with previous data on other accretionary complexes in the Sakarya zone in Northern Turkey, the data presented in this study suggest a continuous subduction of the Palaeotethys at least from Early/Late Permian to Late Triassic and a discontinuous preservation of accretion complexes in both space and time.     

Paleoenvironment and sea-level change in the early Cretaceous Barents Sea—implications from near-shore marine sapropels

The late Volgian (early "Boreal" Berriasian) sapropels of the Hekkingen Formation of the central Barents Sea show total organic carbon (TOC) contents from 3 to 36 wt%. The relationship between TOC content and sedimentation rate (SR), and the high Mo/Al ratios indicate deposition under oxygen-free bottom-water conditions, and suggest that preservation under anoxic conditions has largely contributed to the high accumulation of organic carbon. Hydrogen index values obtained from Rock-Eval pyrolysis are exceptionally high, and the organic matter is characterized by well-preserved type II kerogen. However, the occurrence of spores, freshwater algae, coal fragments, and charred land-plant remains strongly suggests proximity to land. Short-term oscillations, probably reflecting Milankovitch-type cyclicity, are superimposed on the long-term trend of constantly changing depositional conditions during most of the late Volgian. Progressively smaller amounts of terrestrial organic matter and larger amounts of marine organic matter upwards in the core section may have been caused by a continuous sea-level rise.     

Kriging of water levels in the Souss aquifer,Morocco

Universal kriging is applied to water table data from the Souss aquifer in central Morocco. The procedure accounts for the spatial variability of the phenomenon to be mapped. With the use of measured elevations of the water table, an experimental variogram is constructed that characterizes the spatial variability of the measured water levels. Spherical and Gaussian variogram models are alternatively used to fit the experimental variogram. The models are used to develop contour maps of water table elevations and corresponding estimation variances. The estimation variances express the reliability of the kriged water table elevation maps. Universal kriging also provides a contour map of the expected elevation of the water table (drift). The differences between the expected and measured water table elevations are called residuals from the drift. Residuals from the drift are compared with residuals obtained by more traditional least-squares analysis.     

等离子体发射光谱法测定大气颗粒物中的无机元素

建立了用等离子体发射光谱（ＩＣＰ－ＡＥＳ）测定大气颗粒物中无机元素的分析方法,包括样品消解体系的选择,仪器的操作条件及采样滤膜的选择,产对自行采样分析测得的无机元素数据作了初步的讨论。实验结果表明：采用ＨＮＯ３－ＨＣｌＯ４消解体系,操作方便,样品消解较完全;选用石英滤膜查减低空白值,保证测定质量以及同时在一张滤膜上测定大气颗粒物中的有机碳、元素碳及无机元素;内标法可有效降低由于仪器漂移等因素对测定     

Changes in the onset and length of seasons from an ensemble of regional climate models over Spain for future climate conditions

This study analyses the length and onset of the four seasons based on the annual climatic cycle of maximum and minimum temperatures. Previous studies focused over climatically homogeneous mid-high latitude areas, employing fixed temperature thresholds (related to climatic features such as freezing point) that can be inadequate when different climate conditions are present. We propose a method related to the daily minimum and maximum temperature 25th and 75th point-dependent climatic percentiles. It is applied to an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) of 25-km horizontal resolution over the peninsular Spain and Balearic Islands, where a large variety of climatic regimes, from alpine to semi-desertic conditions, are present. First, baseline climate (1961–2000) ERA40-forced RCM simulations are successfully compared with the Spain02 daily observational database, following astronomical season length (around 90 days). This result confirms the validity of the proposed method and capability of the RCMs to describe the seasonal features. Future climate global climate model-forced RCMs (2071–2100) compared with present climate (1961–1990) simulations indicate the disappearance of winter season, a summer enlargement (onset and end) and a slight spring and autumn increase.