Hydrologic models coupled with 2D hydrodynamic model for high-resolution urban flood simulation

Natural Hazards - Floods are the most frequent natural disaster and pose a very challenging threat to many cities worldwide. Understanding the flood dynamic is essential for developing strategies...     

Methodological challenges to confirmatory latent variable models of social vulnerability

Natural Hazards - Socially vulnerable communities experience disproportionately negative outcomes following natural disasters and underscoring a need for well-validated measures to identify those...     

Geological and geophysical studies of the Agoudal impact structure (Central High Atlas,Morocco): New evidence for crater size and age

Since the discovery of shatter cones (SCs) near the village of Agoudal (Morocco, Central High Atlas Mountains) in 2013, the absence of one or several associated circular structures led to speculation about the age of the impact event, the number, and the size of the impact crater or craters. Additional constraints on the crater size, age, and erosion rates are obtained here from geological, structural, and geophysical mapping and from cosmogenic nuclide data. Our geological maps of the Agoudal impact site at the scales of 1:30,000 (6 km²) and 1:15,000 (2.25 km²) include all known occurrences of SCs in target rocks, breccias, and vertical to overturned strata. Considering that strata surrounding the impact site are subhorizontal, we argue that disturbed strata are related to the impact event. Three types of breccias have been observed. Two of them (br1‐2 and br2) could be produced by erosion–sedimentation–consolidation processes, with no evidence for impact breccias, while breccia (br1) might be impact related. The most probable center of the structure is estimated at 31°59′13.73?N, 5°30′55.14?W using the concentric deviation method applied to the orientation of strata over the disturbed area. Despite the absence of a morphological expression, the ground magnetic and electromagnetic surveys reveal anomalies spatially associated with disturbed strata and SC occurrences. The geophysical data, the structural observations, and the area of occurrence of SCs in target rocks are all consistent with an original size of 1.4–4.2 km in diameter. Cosmogenic nuclide data (³⁶Cl) constrain the local erosion rates between 220 ± 22 m Ma^?1 and 430 ± 43 m Ma^?1. These erosion rates may remove the topographic expression of such a crater and its ejecta in a time period of about 0.3–1.9 Ma. This age is older than the Agoudal iron meteorite age (105 ± 40 kyr). This new age constraint excludes the possibility of a genetic relationship between the Agoudal iron meteorite fall and the formation of the Agoudal impact site. A chronolgy chart including the Atlas orogeny, the alternation of sedimentation and erosion periods, and the meteoritic impacts is presented based on all obtained and combined data.     

A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina

A new real-time, event-triggered storm surge prediction system has been developed for the State of North Carolina to assist emergency managers, policy-makers and other government officials with evacuation planning, decision-making and resource deployment during tropical storm landfall and flood inundation events. The North Carolina Forecast System (NCFS) was designed and built to provide a rapid response assessment of hurricane threat, accomplished by driving a high-resolution, two-dimensional, depth-integrated version of the ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) coastal ocean model with winds from a synthetic asymmetric gradient wind vortex. These parametric winds, calculated at exact finite-element mesh node locations and directly coupled to the ocean model at every time step, are generated from National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast advisories the moment they are inserted into the real-time weather data stream, maximizing the number of hours of forecast utility. Tidal harmonic constituents are prescribed at the open water boundaries and applied as tidal potentials in the interior of the ocean model domain. A directional surface roughness parameterization that modulates the wind speed at a given location based on the types of land cover encountered upwind, a forest canopy sheltering effect, and a spatially varying distribution of Manning’s–n friction coefficient used for computing the bottom/channel bed friction are also included in the storm surge model. Comparisons of the simulated wind speeds and phases against their real meteorological counterparts, of model elevations against actual sea surface elevations measured by NOAA tide gauges along the NC coast, and of simulated depth-averaged current velocities against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data, indicate that this new system produces remarkably realistic predictions of winds and storm surge.     

Natural highways for end-of-life solutions in the LEO region

We present the main findings of a dynamical mapping performed in the Low Earth Orbit region. The results were obtained by propagating an extended grid of initial conditions, considering two different epochs and area-to-mass ratios, by means of a singly averaged numerical propagator. It turns out that dynamical resonances associated with high-degree geopotential harmonics, lunisolar perturbations and Solar radiation pressure can open natural deorbiting highways. For area-to-mass ratios typical of the orbiting intact objects, these corridors can be exploited only in combination with the action exerted by the atmospheric drag. For satellites equipped with an area augmentation device, we show the boundary of application of the drag, and where the Solar radiation pressure can be exploited.     

Regional Seas and Sustainable Development Results of an International Workshop

Reports

Regional Seas and Sustainable Development Results of an International Workshop     

Food Web Structure and Habitat Connectivity in Fish Estuarine Nurseries—Impact of River Flow

River flow variability is known to influence estuarine production, yet knowledge on its effect upon estuarine food webs dynamics is still scarce. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes were used to assess the effect of river flow in the connectivity and food web interactions between the two main fish nursery areas of the Tagus estuary. The aims of the present work were to investigate the seasonal variation in food web structure and the exchange rate of individuals of marine juvenile fish among estuarine nurseries, to compare the spring of a rainy year (2001) with that of an average year (2000), and to investigate the impact of the winter floods of 2001. A low level of connectivity was observed for the fish species that use these areas as nurseries. In low river flow conditions, two isotopically distinct food webs were established in each nursery area. These food webs were very sensitive to small variations in the freshwater input. Winter floods seem to disrupt the localized food webs that are established in low river flow periods, leading to the re-establishment of a wider food web. While in rainy years this wide food web is maintained until spring, in average years the food web undergoes fragmentation into two localized and isotopically distinctive food webs. The increase in frequency of droughts due to climate change should lower the connectivity of the estuarine fish nurseries food webs, causing habitat fragmentation and consequent loss in complexity and resilience.     

Nucleosynthetic zirconium isotope anomalies in acid leachates of carbonaceous chondrites

Stepwise dissolutions of the carbonaceous chondrites Orgueil (CI), Murchison (CM) and Allende (CV) reveal large nucleosynthetic anomalies for Zr isotopes that contrast with the uniform compositions found in bulk meteorites. Two complementary nucleosynthetic components are observed: one enriched and one depleted in s-process nuclides. The latter component, characterized by excess ⁹⁶Zr, is most distinctive in the acetic acid leachate (up to ε⁹⁶Zr ≈ 50). The excess decreases with increasing acid strength and the final leaching steps of the experiment are depleted in ⁹⁶Zr and thus enriched in s-process nuclides. Presolar silicon carbide grains are likely host phases for part of the anomalous Zr released during these later stages. However, by mass balance they cannot account for the ⁹⁶Zr excesses observed in the early leaching steps and this therefore hints at the presence of at least one additional carrier phase with significant amounts of anomalous Zr. The data provide evidence that average solar system material consists of a homogenized mixture of different nucleosynthetic components, which can be partly resolved by leaching experiments of carbonaceous chondrites.