Doubtful Events Reported in Current Italian Earthquake Catalogues: The Medieval Earthquakes of Subiaco (Central Italy)

Within the framework of a study of the seismicity of the Aniene Valley (Central Italy), we analysed the medieval earthquakes of Subiaco (1216, 1227, 1299), the largest events reported for the area. Our main goal was to investigate some doubtful events reported in earthquake catalogues and, as such, currently utilised for seismic hazard estimates. A careful screening of the oldest available sources and their filiation pattern up to the present pointed out the uncertainty on the date and nature of these phenomena. A multidisciplinary approach based on the joint analysis of archaeological, geomorphologic and historical evidence allowed us to propose new interpretations concerning these events and their significance for the assessment of seismic hazard in the Aniene Valley. The main conclusion is that the dates of the 1216 and 1227 events are fairly unsupported. In particular, the 1216 earthquake could be dated back to between AD 1159 and 1181.     

The possible connection between ionization in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and low level clouds

Recent analysis of monthly mean cloud data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project uncovered a strong correlation between low cloud and the cosmic ray flux for extensive regions of the Earth. Additional data have been recently released covering the period up to September 2001 with which we have made a new study of the geographical variation of the correlation between low cloud and predicted ionization level from cosmic rays at an altitude of 2 km. When analysed globally, we find that the correlations do not correspond to the latitude variation of cosmic ray flux and they are not field significant. Nonetheless they appear to be marginally field significant over broad latitude and longitude bands with a peak positive correlation at 50 degrees North and South and a tendency to negative correlation at lower latitudes. The correlation is strongest over the North and South Atlantic. Several of these features are consistent with the predictions of the electroscavenging process.We use a simple model to calculate the climatic impact should the correlation be confirmed. We show that, under the most favorable conditions, a reduction in low cloud cover since the late 19th century, combined with the direct forcing by solar irradiance can explain a significant part of the global warming over the past century, but not all. However, this computation assumes that there is no feedback or changes in cloud at other levels.     

Changing human-environment interactions in medium mountains: the Apuseni Mts (Romania) as a case study

The study of human-environment relationships in mountain areas is important for both theoretical and practical reasons, as many mountain areas suffer similar problems, such as depopulation, unemployment and natural hazards. Medium mountains constitute a special case within mountains, because they are more populated but less attractive as tourist destinations than high mountains. In this context, the Apuseni Mts (Romania) are considered as a case study. In this paper, we apply GIS-based, quantitative methods to characterize the strength and dynamics of human-environment interactions, taking into consideration some environmental factors (elevation, relative height, slope, river distance, lithology, land cover, natural attractions) as well as historical population and recent tourism data. We found that population density has strong (r ²>0.8) relationships with all relief factors (elevation, relative height, slope, river distance), and that best-fit functions are nonlinear. We outlined the varying demographic scenarios by elevation zones and interpreted the historically switching sign of population change versus elevation relationship. We demonstrated that lithology also has an impact on the spatial distribution of population, although it is not independent from the relief effect. The land cover of the mainly cultural landscape is very strongly correlated with relief parameters (especially slope), which suggests good adaptation. We pointed out the dominance of karst objects in the natural tourism potential of the Apuseni Mts and also explored further components of real tourism (spas, heritage, towns). Finally, we concluded that the environmental settings investigated do in fact constrain the spatial framework of society, but socio-economic changes in history can be explained from the side of society, which conforms to the theory of cultural possibilism.     

Potential of mosques to serve as evacuation shelters for foreign Muslims during disasters: a case study in Gunma,Japan

Natural Hazards - Foreigners tend to be vulnerable to disasters due to religious and cultural differences. In Japan, Muslim foreign residents, who are minorities, likely face difficulties in terms...     

Curvature derived from LiDAR digital elevation models as simple indicators of debris-flow susceptibility

To mitigate the damage caused by debris flows resulting from heavy precipitation and to aid in evacuation plan preparation, areas at risk should be mapped on a scale appropriate for affected individuals and communities. We tested the effectiveness of simply identifying debris-flow hazards through automated derivation of surface curvatures using LiDAR digital elevation models. We achieved useful correspondence between plan curvatures and areas of existing debris-flow damage in two localities in Japan using the analysis of digital elevation models(DEMs). We found that plan curvatures derived from 10 m DEMs may be useful to indicate areas that are susceptible to debris flow in mountainous areas. In residential areas located on gentle sloping debris flow fans, the greatest damage to houses was found to be located in the elongated depressions that are connected to mountain stream valleys. Plan curvaturederived from 5 m DEM was the most sensitive indicators for susceptibility to debris flows.     

Evaluating the effects of catch-and-release angling on Cape stumpnose Rhabdosargus holubi in a South African estuary

Fisheries managers are increasingly promoting catch-and-release (C&R) to manage recreationally angled fish stocks. Despite this, there is a scarcity of information on the effects of C&R on estuarine-dependent species. Cape stumpnose Rhabdosargus holubi dominates the recreational fisheries catch and provides an important source of food for subsistence fishers in some temperate South African estuaries. The health and survival of R. holubi exposed to a C&R event was investigated by examining their physiological stress response (blood glucose and lactate), reflex impairment (reflex action mortality predictors [RAMP]) and short-term (12-hour) survival. Fish were captured and exposed to one of three air-exposure treatments: 0 s, 30 s or 90 s. Stress and health were measured either immediately (immediate) or one hour after (delayed) the C&R event. There was no significant difference in blood glucose between air-exposure treatments, but there was a significant difference between the mean immediate and delayed glucose levels within each treatment (F_(2,143) = 81.8, p < 0.01). In contrast, blood lactate level was significantly higher in the 90-s treatment (p < 0.05). Immediate blood lactate levels were significantly lower than the delayed samples for each treatment (F = 4.29, p = 0.02; n = 169). Although all fish exhibited at least one reflex impairment, the RAMP score was significantly higher in the 90-s air-exposure treatment (H_(2,86) = 9.73, p = 0.007). Also, RAMP scores were significantly lower in the delayed samples (p < 0.01). Although short-term mortality was relatively low (2.3%) for this species, it was highest in the 90-s treatment (7%). These results suggest that physiological stress is higher when R. holubi are exposed to longer periods of air exposure and that the physiological stress of fish subject to a C&R event is best measured after a delay.     

Anatomy of a continental subduction zone: The main mantle thrust in Northern Pakistan

The Himalayas form an ideal natural laboratory to study the deformation processes of continental crust during collision orogeny. New information is presented concerning the structural evolution of the Main Mantle thrust zone in the Himalayas of N Pakistan, in the region around Nanga Parbat. The hanging-wall lies at relatively high levels within the Kohistan arc terrane which has been emplaced onto Indian continental rocks. This thrust probably originated as a breakback structure in the hanging-wall to the pre-collisional (oceanic) subduction zone. The present hanging-wall contains a shear zone of about 1 km width developed under amphibolite facies conditions. Simple shear dominant strains have developed new fabrics parallel to the main thrust zone. However, these structures are redeformed by discrete extensional and compressional shears within about 100 m of the thrust contact, again developed under amphibolite facies conditions. The footwall consists of an old basement complex (the Nanga Parbat gneisses) overlain by a distinct suite of metasediments now at amphibolite facies. This cover assemblage of psammites, pelites and marbles with local metabasites consistently lies directly against rocks derived from the Kohistan arc along the MMT. The absence of structures suggestive of consistent rheological contrasts within the cover assemblages suggests that the vast majority of the deformation features they contain were developed only once they experienced substantial tectonic overburdens. Prior to this the Indian cover rocks will have been »passively« subducted beneath the Kohistan arc until into amphibolite facies. We discuss these inferences in terms of evolving shear zone width with time and comment on the implications for predicting the character of mid-deep crustal shear zones, particularly from seismic reflection profiles.

---

Zusammenfassung Der Himalaya bildet ein ideales, natrliches Laboratorium für Untersuchungen von Deformationsprozessen in kontinentalen Krustengesteinen während der Kollision bzw. Orogenese. Hier werden neue Daten vorgelegt, die sich mit der strukturellen Entwicklung der Hauptmantelüberschiebung im Himalaya von Nordpakistan im Gebiet um den Nanga Parbat befassen. Die Hangendeinheiten oberhalb der Störung liegen in einem relativ hohen Niveau innerhalb des »Kohistan arc terrane«, das auf die indischen Kontinentalgesteine überschoben wurde. Diese Überschiebung entstand wahrscheinlich als Rücküberschiebungsstruktur im Hangenden der Subduktionszone vor der Kollision. Im Hangenden befindet sich eine ca. 1 km breite Scherzone, die sich unter amphibolitfaziellen Bedingungen gebildet hat. Die durch »simple shear« erzeugten Deformationen sind mit ihren neuen Gefügen parallel zur Hauptüberschiebungszone ausgerichtet. Die Gefüge wurden nachfolgend von Extensionsund Kompressionsbewegungen im Bereich von ca. 100 m um den Überschiebungskontakt erneut unter amphibolitfaziellen Bedingungen erfaßt und deformiert. Das Liegende der Hauptüberschiebung besteht aus einem alten Basementkomplex (den Nanga Parbat Gneisen), die von deutlich abgesetzten, amphibolitfaziellen Metasedimenten überlagert werden. Diese Sedimenthülle bestehend aus Psammiten, Peliten und Marmoren mit lokalen Metabasiten stößt entlang der MMT direkt gegen die Gesteine des Kohistanbogens. Das Fehlen von Strukturen, die auf gleichbleibende rheologische Unterschiede hinweisen würde, läßt vermuten, daß der Großteil der in ihnen enthaltenen Deformationsgefüge auf einmal während beträchtlicher tektonischer Auflast entstanden ist. Vorher wurden die indischen Hüllgesteine »passiv« unter den Kohistanbogen bis in den Bereich der Amphibolitfazies subduziert. Die Folgerungen aus der sich über die Zeit entwickelnden Breite dieser Scherzone werden diskutiert und die Bedeutung für die Vorhersage der Charakteristik von mitteltiefen krustalen Scherzonen, insbesondere in Verbindung mit seismischen Reflektionsprofilen betont.

---

Résumé L'Himalaya constitue un laboratoire naturel idéal pour l'étude des processus de déformation de la croûte continentale au cours d'une orogenèse de collision. Les auteurs présentent des informations nouvelles relatives à l'évolution structurale de la zone du Main Mantle Thrust dans la région du Nanga Parbat au nord du Pakistan. Le toit de cet accident occupe un niveau assez élevé dans le «Kohistan arc Terrane» qui a été charrié sur les roches du continent indien. Le charriage doit probablement son origine à une structure en retour apparue au-dessus de la zone de subduction pré-collisionnelle (océanique). Le toit actuel de l'accident contient une zone de glissement (shear zone) épaisse d'environ 1 km et formée dans les conditions du facies des amphibolites. Les déformations engendrées par glissement simple (simple shear) ont développé de nouvelles fabriques parallèles à la surface de charriage. Cependant, dans une tranche d'une centaine de mètres à partir du contact du charriage, ces structures ont été reprises par des cisaillements extensionnels ou compressionnels, toujours dans les conditions du facies des amphibolites.Le mur de l'accident est formé d'un complexe ancien (le gneiss du Nanga Parbat) surmonté d'une série de métasédiments distincts qui présentent aujourd'hui le facies des amphibolites. Cette couverture de psammites, de pélites, de marbres et de métabasites locales est directement en contact le long du MMT avec l'arc du Kohistan. L'absence, dans cette couverture, de structures témoignant de contrastes rhéologiques marqués, suggère que la grande majorité des structures déformatives n'y ont été développées qu'après un enfouissement tectonique important. Avant cela, les roches de la couverture indienne ont dû être subductées passivement sous l'arc du Kohistan, jusqu'au facies des amphibolites. Les auteurs discutent ces conclusions en termes d'évolution temporelle d'une shear zone et en commentant les implications dans le domaine de la prédiction du caractère des shear zones de profondeur crustale moyenne, en particulier à partir des profils de sismique réflexion.

---

, , . -. Kohistan arc terrane —, . , , . 1 , . , , . 100 . — - —, . , , , . , , , , , . . .

     

Persistent organochlorine residues in sediments from the Chukchi Sea, Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska

Three surface sediments and two sediment cores were collected from the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea, and analysed for persistent organochlorines (OCs). The geographical distributions of OCs showed different patterns according to their physicochemical properties. The concentrations of HCHs and HCB revealed rather uniform distribution, suggesting their more transportable nature in long-range atmospheric transport. On the other hand, DDTs and PCBs were predicted to be less transportable via the atmosphere due to the decreasing trends of residue levels in sediments from south to north. The OC profiles in the sediment core from the Gulf of Alaska which seemed to be preserved without turbation revealed the elevated residue levels from bottom to surface layers. This implies that the aerial inputs of OCs in the cold ocean are still continuing significantly. The accumulation rates of OCs into sediments were rather smaller than the atmospheric inputs, indicating that the residue levels in water bodies are unlikely to decrease rapidly in the near future.