Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.     

Design Aspects of Grazing Angle Multilayer Mirrors for Soft γ-Rays

If sensitive enough, future missions for nuclear astrophysics will be a great help in understanding supernovae explosions. In contrast to coded-mask instruments, both crystal diffraction lenses and grazing angle mirrors offer a possibility to construct a sensitive instrument to detect γ-ray lines in supernovae. We report on possible implementations of grazing angle mirrors and simulations carried out to determine their performance.     

Interactive effects of environmental variability and human impacts on the long-term dynamics of an Amazonian floodplain lake and a South Atlantic coastal lagoon

Human activities are exposing freshwater ecosystems to a wide range of stressors, whose direct and indirect effects can be alleviated or exacerbated through interactive effects with dynamic environmental drivers. This study used long-term data from two Neotropical lacustrine freshwater systems (Batata Lake, an Amazonian floodplain lake and Imboassica lagoon, an Atlantic coastal lagoon) subjected to different kinds of environmental fluctuations (i.e., flood pulse and sandbar opening) and anthropogenic impacts (i.e., siltation and eutrophication). Our objective was to determine whether the effects of human perturbations are contingent on modifications of important biotic and abiotic characteristics through environmental variability. For both ecosystems, environmental variability consistently interacted with anthropogenic perturbations to alter most of the variables analyzed, such as nutrient dynamics, chlorophyll-a concentration, zooplankton and benthic invertebrate species richness, and temporal community stability, which indicates that interactive effects between environmental variability and anthropogenic perturbations may impact a myriad of ecosystem properties. Furthermore, the nature of these interactive effects was highly dependent on the variable considered and on the ecosystem analyzed. For example, at Imboassica lagoon, sandbar openings interacted synergistically with trophic state to increase the phosphorus concentration in the water column. At Batata Lake, flooding generally alleviated the negative effects of siltation on species richness by both diluting inorganic suspended material concentration and by promoting local recruitment from the regional species pool. Such results indicate that our ability to understand and predict the outcome of anthropogenic impacts on inland aquatic systems can be hampered if we consider human stressors as “static” phenomena disconnected from dynamic interactions with major local environmental drivers.     

U–Pb evidence for a polyorogenic evolution of the HP–HT units of the NW Iberian Massif

. A isotope dilution thermal ionisation mass spectrometry U-Pb geochronological study was carried out on the high-pressure and high-temperature units (HP-HT units) overlying the oceanic suture in the Allochthonous Complexes of the NW Iberian Variscan Belt. The rocks investigated are seven granulite- to eclogite-facies paragneisses and one leucosome within mafic high-pressure granulites in the Ordenes and Cabo Ortegal Complexes of NW Spain. U-Pb dating of zircon, monazite, titanite and rutile reveal the presence of a pervasive Early Ordovician metamorphic event at ca. 500-480 Ma and a later Early Devonian event at ca. 400-380 Ma. The U-Pb ages, in conjunction with petrological and structural data, indicate that the high-pressure event recorded by these rocks is Early Ordovician in age. Monazite ages in the paragneisses suggest that peak metamorphic conditions were reached at ca. 500-485 Ma. Subsequently, the rock ensemble underwent exhumation accompanied by partial melting and zircon growth at ca. 485-470 Ma. Melting of mafic granulites was coeval with this latter episode as indicated by zircon crystallisation age in the leucosomes dated at ca. 486 Ma. Based on these data and on the general features of magmatism and metamorphic evolution, it is proposed that this process took place at a convergent plate boundary within a peri-Gondwanan oceanic domain. Monazite, titanite and rutile data in some of the samples studied show evidence of a second metamorphic episode that took place between ca. 400 and 380 Ma (with a peak at ca. 390-385 Ma). This Early Devonian event, at variance with the previous one, was not pervasive, but, rather, was localised in areas of intense Variscan tectonothermal reworking. It is claimed that this later metamorphic event was recorded by the U-Pb system in areas where monazite and titanite growth was enhanced by fluid circulation in highly strained rocks (Variscan shear zones). According to previous structural studies and Ar-Ar dating of fabrics, this Early Devonian episode took place as the HP-HT units were deformed and thrusted upon the ophiolitic units in the early stages of the Variscan collision.     

Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico

Vulnerability to climate change was evaluated for three different time periods: 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our objective was to discuss the scope of a multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability. The method used 55 indicators—with emphasis on the agricultural sector in Mexico—of which 27 were updated for the year 2010 and 33 were retrospectively estimated for the year 1990. The results show that in the 20-year study period, the exposure of the municipalities (and inhabitants) has increased, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity have decreased. The number of municipalities vulnerable to climate change declined over the 20-year period. We found that calculating vulnerability by adding exposure and sensitivity and subtracting adaptive capacity (E?+?S???AC) can lead to unintentional underestimation of total vulnerability. When rating vulnerability, care must be taken in what is reported: the results differ for the number of inhabitants versus the number of municipalities. Our previous published vulnerability evaluation was for the year 2000, so we wanted to evaluate the sensitivity of some variables and the vulnerability formula itself we used in that moment. It is possible to evaluate the vulnerability multi-temporally, which allows to evaluate the sensibility and calibration of the variables and indicators used and the reconsideration of their application.     

Large-scale brightenings associated with flares

Flare-associated large-scale (>10¹⁰ cm) X-ray brightenings, the so-called giant arches in the nomenclature of vestka and co-workers, were discovered in images obtained by the SMM Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer hours after the onset of two-ribbon flares. The apparent correlation between both phenomena suggested that they could be interpreted in the framework of the same model.In this paper we show that large-scale loop brightenings, of sizes similar to the giant arches, occur also in association with confined flares in complex active regions. In these cases, the relation between the large-scale structure and the underlying flare is clearly given by the magnetic field topology. We also show that energization of these structures can be partially due to the injection of suprathermal particles that are accelerated at the separator region.We discuss the implications of these results within the framework of the interacting loops picture of flares and of the giant arch phenomenology.Member of the Carrera del Investigador Científico, CONICET, Argentina.     

Multi-thermal observations of newly formed loops in a dynamic flare

The dynamic flare of 6 November, 1980 (max 15:26 UT) developed a rich system of growing loops which could be followed in H for 1.5 hr. Throughout the flare, these loops, near the limb, were seen in emission against the disk. Theoretical computations of deviations from LTE populations for a hydrogen atom reveal that this requires electron densities in the loops close to, or in excess of 10¹² cm ^-3. From measured widths of higher Balmer lines the density at the tops of the loops was found to be 4 x 10¹² cm ^-3 if no non-thermal motions were present, or 5 × 10¹¹ cm ^-3 for a turbulent velocity of ~ 12 km s ^-1.It is now general knowledge that flare loops are initially observed in X-rays and become visible in H only after cooling. For such a high density, a loop would cool through radiation from 10⁷ to 10⁴ K within a few minutes so that the dense H loops should have heights very close to the heights of the X-ray loops. This, however, contradicts the observations obtained by the HXIS and FCS instruments on board SMM which show the X-ray loops at much higher altitudes than the loops in H. Therefore, we suggest that the density must have been significantly lower when the loops were formed and that the flare loops were apparently both shrinking and increasing in density while cooling.NAS/NRC Research Associate, on leave from CNIE, Argentina.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation. Partial support for the National Solar Observatory is provided by the USAF under a Memorandum of Understanding with the NSF.