Variability and trends in runoff in the rivers of British Columbia's Coast and Insular Mountains

This study examines the 1914–2015 runoff trends and variability for 136 rivers draining British Columbia's Coast and Insular Mountains. Rivers are partitioned into eastward and westward flowing rivers based on flow direction from the Coast Mountains. Thus, eastward and westward runoff trends and influence of topography on runoff are explored. Our findings indicate that rivers flowing eastward to the Nechako and Chilcotin plateaus contribute the lowest annual runoff compared to westward rivers where runoff is high. Low interannual runoff variability is evident in westward rivers and their alpine watersheds, whereas eastward rivers exhibit high interannual runoff variability. On Vancouver Island, some of the rivers with the highest annual runoff exhibit high interannual variability. A significant (p < .05) negative correlation exists between mean annual runoff (R_m) and latitude, gauged area, mean elevation, and its corresponding coefficient of variation. However, a significant positive correlation was found between the glacierized area of mountainous regions and R_m. The mean coefficient of variation in annual runoff is significantly negatively correlated with latitude and glacierized area, but significantly positively correlated with longitude. Annual and seasonal runoff trend analyses of each river were performed for an early (1936–2015), a middle (1966–2015), and a late (1986–2015) period using the Mann–Kendall test. Trend analyses revealed a shift towards more positive detectable (signal‐to‐noise ratio > 1) trends in annual and seasonal runoff from the middle to the late period across the study domain. Most positive detectable seasonal runoff trends in the middle period occur in spring in glacierized westward rivers located >1,200 m, whereas in the late period, they all occur in fall and are regionally coherent around Vancouver Island and south coastal BC. Rivers draining eastward exhibit more positive trends over 1986–2015 compared to westward rivers. This study provides crucial information on the hydrology of mountain watersheds across British Columbia's coast in response to Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase changes, the elevational amplification of regional climate change, and their influences on precipitation and glacier retreat.     

Dispersive Fluxes Within and Over a Real Urban Canopy: A Large-Eddy Simulation Study

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - Large-eddy simulations (LES) are conducted to study the transport of momentum and passive scalar within and over a real urban canopy in the City of Boston, USA. This...     

Elastic period of vibration calculated experimentally in buildings hosting permanent GPS stations

During the earthquake in Emilia (Italy) of 2012, ca. 30 permanent GPS stations were in operation within a radius of about 100 km from the epicenter, each equipped with an antenna rigidly fixed to the host building and sampling the GPS signal at a high rate (> 1 Hz). From the recording of the GPS measurements, the instantaneous displacements s(t) in the North- South and East-West directions of the phase centers of the single GPS antennas at each permanent station during the most important seismic sequences were calculated in kinematic mode. Subsequently, for each of the two displacements considered as two distinct external forces, the elastic response spectra of the building were determined and from them the two periods of vibration T along two orthogonal directions coinciding with the walls of the building were extracted. The experimentally obtained periods of vibration were compared with those inferable from the technical literature. In this way, a sufficiently large sample was obtained per building type, geometry (square, rectangular, regular or irregular planimetry), height (from a minimum of 4 to a maximum of 20 m) and materials (masonry, reinforced concrete, etc.). From the computational point of view, the study confirmed that GPS is an emerging tool for monitoring dynamic displacements and the experimentally estimated value of T is always lower than the one estimated with the formulae reported in the literature. The limitations of the study lie in the impossibility to choose a priori the geometry and/or structural type of the building hosting the GPS station.     

Detrital geochronology of unroofing magmatic complexes and the slow erosion of Oligocene volcanoes in the Alps

Tectonic reconstructions and quantitative models of landscape evolution are increasingly based on detailed analysis of detrital systems. Since the definition of closure temperature in the 1960s, mineral ages of low-temperature geochronometers are traditionally interpreted as the result of cooling induced by erosion, whose rate is a simple, unique function of age patterns. Such an approach can lead to infer paradoxically high erosion rates that conflict with compelling geological evidence from sediment thickness in basins. This indicates that tectonic and landscape models that solely interpret mineral ages as due to cooling during exhumation may not be valid.Here we propose a new approach that takes into account the effects of both crystallization and exhumational cooling on geochronometers, from U–Pb on zircon to fission tracks on apatite. We first model the mechanical erosion of an unroofing magmatic complex and the resulting accumulation and burial of the eroded units in reverse order in the basin. Detrital mineral ages follow a regular pattern downsection. Some mineral ages, such as e.g. U–Pb ages of zircons, cluster around the “magmatic age”, i.e. the crystallization of the magma. Its value is constant along the stratigraphic column in the sedimentary basin; we refer to this behavior as “stationary age peak”. Some other mineral ages, such as e.g. apatite fission-track ages, are often younger than the magmatic age. When they vary smoothly with depth, they define a “moving age peak”, which is the only possible effect of undisturbed cooling during overburden removal, and can therefore be used to calculate an erosion rate.The predictions of our model were tested in detail on the extremely well-studied Bregaglia (Bergell) orogenic pluton in the Alps, and on the sedimentary succession derived from its erosion, the Gonfolite Group. The consistency between predicted and observed age patterns validates the model. Our results resolve a long-standing paradox in quantitative modelling of erosion–sedimentation, namely the scarcity of sediment during apparently fast erosion. Starved basins are the observational baseline, and modelling must be tuned to include a correct analysis of detrital mineral geochronology in order to reconcile perceived discrepancies between stratigraphical and geochronological information. In addition, our data demonstrate that volcanoes were active on top of the growing Oligocene Alps.This study illustrates rigorous criteria for detrital mineral geochronology that are applicable to any geological setting, including magmatic arcs and collision orogens, and provides fundamental interpretive keys to solve complex puzzles and apparent paradoxes in geological reconstructions.     

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999–2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981–2000 and 2081–2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9?days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34?days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.     

Complex dynamics of small-moderate volcanic events: the example of the 2011 rhyolitic Cordón Caulle eruption,Chile

After decades of repose, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcano (Chile) erupted in June 2011 following a month of continuously increasing seismic activity. The eruption dispersed a large volume of rhyolitic tephra over a wide area and was characterized by complex dynamics. During the initial climactic phase of the eruption (24–30 h on 4–5 June), 11–14-km-high plumes dispersed most of the erupted tephra eastward towards Argentina, reaching as far as the Atlantic Ocean. This first eruptive phase was followed by activity of lower intensity, leading to the development of a complex stratigraphic sequence, mainly due to rapid shifts in wind direction and eruptive style. The resulting tephra deposits consist of 13 main layers grouped into four units. Each layer was characterized based on its dispersal direction, sedimentological features, and on the main characteristics of the juvenile fraction (texture, density, petrography, chemistry). The lowest part of the eruptive sequence (Unit I), corresponding to the tephra emitted between 4 and 5 June, is composed of alternating lapilli layers with a total estimated volume of ca. 0.75 km³; these layers record the highest intensity phase, during which a bent-over plume dispersed tephra towards the southeast-east, with negligible up-wind sedimentation. Products emitted during 5–6 June (Unit II) signaled an abrupt shift in wind direction towards the north, leading to the deposition of a coarse ash deposit in the northern sector (ca. 0.21 km³ in volume), followed by a resumption of easterly directed winds. A third phase (Unit III) began on 7 June and resulted in tephra deposits in the eastern sector and ballistic bombs around the vent area. A final phase (Unit IV) started after 15 June and was characterized by the emission of fine-grained white tephra from ash-charged plumes during low-level activity and the extrusion of a viscous lava flow. Timing and duration of the first eruptive phases were constrained based on comparison of the dispersal of the main tephra layers with satellite images, showing that most of the tephra was emitted during the first 72 h of the event. The analyzed juvenile material tightly clusters within the rhyolitic field, with negligible chemical variations through the eruptive sequence. Textural observations reveal that changes in eruption intensity (and consequently in magma ascent velocity within the conduit) and complex interactions between gas-rich and gas-depleted magma portions during ascent resulted in vesicular clasts with variable degrees of shear localization, and possibly in the large heterogeneity of the juvenile material.     

Equivalent diffusion coefficient of clay-rich geological formations: comparison between numerical and analytical estimates

Laboratory experiments in rock samples collected from clay-rich formations indicate that the effective molecular diffusion coefficient (D) is a heterogeneous and anisotropic property. Since laboratory measurements of D are representative of a very small volume, upscaling is necessary in order to incorporate these data in large-scale numerical models of diffusive transport. In this work we address the problem of the estimating the equivalent diffusion coefficient (D _eq ), in terms of total diffusive flux, in a three-dimensional domain characterized by a heterogeneous and anisotropic spatial distribution of D. D _eq was estimated from the results of steady-state diffusive transport simulations through several realizations of the D field. The ensemble averages of D _eq from fields with different degrees of heterogeneity and anisotropy were then compared with estimates from analytical upscaling expressions based on stochastic as well as power-averaging approaches. These expressions are largely based on similar expressions developed for calculating the effective hydraulic conductivity in heterogeneous and anisotropic domains. Comparisons showed that stochastic expressions provide accurate estimates of D _eq only for fields characterized by low heterogeneity. Within the range of heterogeneity and anisotropy considered, our results showed that a power-averaging expression is very accurate in predicting D _eq especially when the parameter p _i is estimated through fitting of the numerical results. Nonetheless, the relationship between this parameter and the anisotropy ratio is linear.     

Building damage scenarios based on exploitation of Housner intensity derived from finite faults ground motion simulations

In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in a previous work through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza. The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes.