The Effects of Climatic Variability on US Irrigation Adoption

This paper contributes to the literature underscoring the importance of climatic variance by developing a framework for incorporating the means and tails of the distributions of rainfall and temperature into empirical models of agricultural production. The methodology is applied to estimate the impact of climate change on the discrete choice decision to adopt irrigation since it is an important adaptation to climate change. We develop a discrete choice model for the decision to install irrigation capacity that captures the effects of both climate means and extremes. Climatic means and frequencies of climatic events in the upper tails of the temperature and precipitation distributions are used to estimate the parameters of a normal distribution for temperature and a Weibull distribution for precipitation. Using estimates from a probit model, we examine the independent effects of changing climatic mean and variance on the probability of adopting irrigation. Increasing the mean temperature, holding variance constant, shifts the entire distribution toward warmer temperatures—increasing the frequency of extreme temperatures. For precipitation, the specification captures the separate effects of mean rainfall, frequency of rainfall, and frequency of extreme events. The results show that the tails of the temperature and precipitation distributions, not the means, are the dominant climatic determinants in irrigation adoption. The results also show that water availability, soil characteristics, farm size and operator demographics are important determinants of irrigation.     

Contrasting geochemical patterns in the 3.7-3.8 Ga pillow basalt cores and rims, Isua greenstone belt, Southwest Greenland: implications for postmagmatic alteration processes

Pillow basalts from the early Archean (3.7 to 3.8 Ga) Isua greenstone belt, West Greenland, are characterized by well-preserved rims and concentric core structures. The pillow rims and cores have different mineral assemblages, and chemical and isotopic compositions. The rims have systematically higher contents of Fe₂O₃, MgO, MnO, K₂O, Rb, Ba, Ga, Y, and transition metals than the cores. In contrast, the cores possess higher concentrations of SiO₂, Na₂O, P₂O₅, Sr, Pb, U, Nb, and the light rare earth elements (REEs than the rims). These compositional variations in the rims and cores are likely to reflect the mobility of these elements during posteruption alteration. Variations of many major and trace element concentrations between the rims and cores of the Isua pillow basalts are comparable to those of modern pillow basalts undergoing seafloor hydrothermal alteration. Al₂O₃, TiO₂, Th, Zr, and the heavy REEs display similar values in both rims and cores, suggesting that these elements were relatively immobile during postemplacement alteration.In addition, the rims and cores have distinctive Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr isotopic compositions in that the rims are characterized by higher ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios than the cores. The pillow basalts yield 2569 ± 170 Ma and 1604 ± 170 Ma errorchron ages on ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd vs. ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr vs. ⁸⁷Rb/⁸⁶Sr diagrams, respectively. The Sm-Nd errorchron age may correspond, within errors, to a late Archean tectonothermal metamorphic event recorded in the region. The Sm-Nd errorchron may have resulted from a combination of isotopic homogenization and preferential loss of Nd, relative to Sm, during late Archean metamorphism. Although the Rb-Sr errorchron age overlaps with the timing of an early to mid-Proterozoic tectonothermal metamorphic event recorded in the region, because of a considerably large mean square of weighted deviates value and scatter in ⁸⁶Sr/⁸⁷Sr and ⁸⁷Rb/⁸⁶Sr ratios, this age may not have a precise geological significance. The 1.6 Ga Rb-Sr errorchron is likely to have resulted from the loss of radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr. Collectively, the Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr data obtained from the 3.7-3.8 Ga Isua pillow basalt rims and cores are consistent with disturbances of the Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr systems by tectonothermal metamorphic events long after their eruption.In contrast to the Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr systems, the Lu-Hf system appears to be largely undisturbed by metamorphism. Five core samples and three rim samples yield a 3935 ± 350 Ma age, within error of the approximate age of eruption (3.7 to 3.8 Ga). Two rim samples that have gained Lu give an age of 1707 ± 140 Ma, within error of the Rb-Sr errorchron age. Initial ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios of the undisturbed samples at 3.75 Ga lie within ±1 ε-unit of the chondritic value, suggesting no long-term depletion in the mantle source of the basalts.