Comparison of climate field reconstruction techniques: application to Europe

This paper presents a comparison of principal component (PC) regression and regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) to reconstruct European summer and winter surface air temperature over the past millennium. Reconstruction is performed within a surrogate climate using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM) 1.4 and the climate model ECHO-G 4, assuming different white and red noise scenarios to define the distortion of pseudoproxy series. We show how sensitivity tests lead to valuable “a priori” information that provides a basis for improving real world proxy reconstructions. Our results emphasize the need to carefully test and evaluate reconstruction techniques with respect to the temporal resolution and the spatial scale they are applied to. Furthermore, we demonstrate that uncertainties inherent to the predictand and predictor data have to be more rigorously taken into account. The comparison of the two statistical techniques, in the specific experimental setting presented here, indicates that more skilful results are achieved with RegEM as low frequency variability is better preserved. We further detect seasonal differences in reconstruction skill for the continental scale, as e.g. the target temperature average is more adequately reconstructed for summer than for winter. For the specific predictor network given in this paper, both techniques underestimate the target temperature variations to an increasing extent as more noise is added to the signal, albeit RegEM less than with PC regression. We conclude that climate field reconstruction techniques can be improved and need to be further optimized in future applications.     

The graininess of dark matter haloes

We use the recently completed one billion particle Via Lactea II Λ cold dark matter simulation to investigate local properties like density, mean velocity, velocity dispersion, anisotropy, orientation and shape of the velocity dispersion ellipsoid, as well as the structure in velocity space of dark matter haloes. We show that at the same radial distance from the halo centre, these properties can deviate by orders of magnitude from the canonical, spherically averaged values, a variation that can only be partly explained by triaxiality and the presence of subhaloes. The mass density appears smooth in the central relaxed regions but spans four orders of magnitude in the outskirts, both because of the presence of subhaloes as well as of underdense regions and holes in the matter distribution. In the inner regions, the local velocity dispersion ellipsoid is aligned with the shape ellipsoid of the halo. This is not true in the outer parts where the orientation becomes more isotropic. The clumpy structure in local velocity space of the outer halo cannot be well described by a smooth multivariate normal distribution. Via Lactea II also shows the presence of cold streams made visible by their high 6D phase space density. Generally, the structure of dark matter haloes shows a high degree of graininess in phase space that cannot be described by a smooth distribution function.     

Seasonal climate information preserved in West Antarctic ice core water isotopes: relationships to temperature, large-scale circulation, and sea ice

As part of the United States’ contribution to the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE), a network of precisely dated and highly resolved ice cores was retrieved from West Antarctica. The ITASE dataset provides a unique record of spatial and temporal variations of stable water isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δD) across West Antarctica. We demonstrate that, after accounting for water vapor diffusion, seasonal information can be successfully extracted from the ITASE cores. We use meteorological reanalysis, weather station, and sea ice data to assess the role of temperature, sea ice, and the state of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in controlling seasonal average water isotope variations in West Antarctica. The strongest relationships for all variables are found in the cores on and west of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide and during austral fall. During this season positive isotope anomalies in the westernmost ITASE cores are strongly related to a positive pressure anomaly over West Antarctica, low sea ice concentrations in the Ross and Amundsen Seas, and above normal temperatures. Analyses suggest that this seasonally distinct climate signal is due to the pronounced meridional oriented circulation and its linkage to enhanced sea ice variations in the adjacent Southern Ocean during fall, both of which also influence local to regional temperatures.     

Distribution of branched tetraether lipids in geothermally heated soils: Implications for the MBT/CBT temperature proxy

Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) membrane lipids occur in soils and peat bogs and are assumed to be produced by anaerobic bacteria. Two indices based on the distribution of these lipids in soils, the Cyclisation of Branched Tetraethers (CBT) and the Methylation of Branched Tetraethers (MBT) index have been shown to linearly relate to pH, and to mean annual air temperature (MAT) and pH, respectively. To directly evaluate the impact of changes in soil temperature on the MBT/CBT proxy, we determined these indices in soils sampled from a transect away from two hot springs in California, which provided a set of soils similar in composition but with different temperatures (12–41 °C). The CBT values of these geothermally heated soils show a good relation with pH (R² 0.76), similar to that of a global MBT/CBT calibration set. Also, the relationship between MBT, soil pH and temperature for the geothermally heated soils is similar to that of a global soil calibration set, although the intercept for the geothermally heated soils is significantly lower, likely because our data set is based on in situ soil temperatures rather than MAT. The results confirm the dependence of the MBT index on soil temperature and pH and support the applicability of the MBT/CBT indices as a proxy for continental palaeotemperatures and past soil pH.     

Distribution of Crenarchaeota tetraether membrane lipids in surface sediments from the Red Sea

The Red Sea represents an extreme marine environment, with high salinity, high temperature and low level of nutrients, complicating the application of standard geochemical palaeotemperature proxies. In order to investigate the applicability of the TEX₈₆ (TetraEther indeX of GDGTs with 86 carbons) proxy for sea surface temperature (SST) in the Red Sea, the distribution of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether membrane lipids (GDGTs) in sediments from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden were examined. Against expectations, TEX₈₆ values for the Red Sea do not show a simple linear relationship with SST and deviate from the global core top calibration. In the northern Red Sea, at temperatures between 25 and 28 °C, the values increase linearly with SST, whereas in the southern Red Sea, at temperatures above 28 °C, TEX₈₆ decreases with increasing temperature. Factors like seasonality and depth of production, salinity and nutrient availability, as well as diagenetic overprint or influence of allochtonous terrestrial lipids, cannot explain this pattern. However, the observed TEX₈₆ relationship with SST could be explained by the presence of a hypothetical endemic Crenarchaeota population in the Red Sea with a specific TEX₈₆ vs. SST relationship. In the Southern Red Sea, a two-component mixing model implies an exponential decrease in the endemic population towards the Gulf of Aden. Thus, the application of the TEX₈₆ as a palaeotemperature proxy in the Red Sea is likely only possible for the northern Red Sea area with the specific SST vs. TEX₈₆ relationship determined in this study and potentially for the whole Red Sea basin during glacials, when water exchange with the Indian Ocean was more restricted than today and the endemic archaeal lipid distribution was not affected by transport from the Indian Ocean. Our results suggest that distinct populations of Crenarchaeota in extreme environments such as evaporitic basins may have different membrane composition, necessitating application of another calibration than the global core top calibration for TEX₈₆ palaeothermometry.     

Multimass spherical structure models for N-body simulations

We present a simple and efficient method to set up spherical structure models for N -body simulations with a multimass technique. This technique reduces by a substantial factor the computer run time needed in order to resolve a given scale as compared to single-mass models. It therefore allows to resolve smaller scales in N -body simulations for a given computer run time. Here, we present several models with an effective resolution of up to  1.68 × 10⁹  particles within their virial radius which are stable over cosmologically relevant time-scales. As an application, we confirm the theoretical prediction by Dehnen that in mergers of collisionless structures like dark matter haloes always the cusp of the steepest progenitor is preserved. We model each merger progenitor with an effective number of particles of approximately 10⁸ particles. We also find that in a core–core merger the central density approximately doubles whereas in the cusp–cusp case the central density only increases by approximately 50 per cent. This may suggest that the central regions of flat structures are better protected and get less energy input through the merger process.     

Climatic implications of cirque distribution in the Romanian Carpathians: palaeowind directions during glacial periods

The many glacial cirques in the mountains of Romania indicate the distribution of former glacier sources, related to former climates as well as to topography. In the Transylvanian Alps (Southern Carpathians) cirque floors rise eastward at 0.714 m km⁻¹, and cirque aspects tend ENE, confirming the importance of winds from some westerly direction. There is a contrast between two neighbouring ranges: the Făgăraş, where the favoured aspect of cirques is ENE, and the Iezer, where the tendency is stronger and to NNE. This can be explained by the Iezer Mountains being sheltered by the Făgăraş, which implies precipitation‐bearing winds from north of west at times of mountain glaciation. Palaeoglaciation levels also suggest winds from north of west, which is consistent with aeolian evidence from Pleistocene dunes, yardangs and loess features in the plains of Hungary and southwestern Romania. In northern Romania (including Ukrainian Maramureş) the influence of west winds was important, but sufficient only to give a northeastward tendency in cirque aspects. This gave stronger asymmetry than in the Transylvanian Alps, as the northward (solar radiation incidence) tendency in these marginally glaciated mountains was less diluted by wind effects. Cirque floors in northern Romania are lower also in northeast‐facing cirques. In general, cirque aspects result from several factors and the mean tendency is not downwind, but is displaced from poleward by wind and by minor effects. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Possible soil tension controls on the isotopic equilibrium fractionation factor for evaporation from soil

The stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) are useful conservative tracers for tracking the movement of water in soil. But although the tracking of water infiltrating through the soil profile and its movement as run‐off and groundwater recharge are well developed, water movement through the soil can also include evaporative fractionation. Soil water fractionation factors have, until now, been largely empirical. Unlike open water evaporation where temperature, humidity, and vapour pressure gradient define fractionation, soil water evaporation includes fractionation by soil matrix effects. These effects are still poorly characterized. Here, we present preliminary results from a simple laboratory experiment with four soil admixtures with grain sizes that range from sand to silt and clay. Our results show that soil tension seems to control the isotope fractionation of resident soil water. The relationship between soil tension and equilibrium fractionation appears to be independent of soil texture and appears well supported by thermodynamic theory. Although these results are preliminary, they suggest that future work should go after soil tension effects as a possible explanatory factor of soil water and water vapour fractionation.