Verifying warnings for point precipitation

Short-term risk forecasts of point precipitation are obtained with COTREC/RainCast, a technique for extrapolation of radar images. The risk forecasts are updated every 5 min for the next 0–2 h. Risk levels are defined for moderate, heavy and extreme precipitation. Warning messages are generated if, at the locations of 23 rain gauges, these risk levels are reached or exceeded. The time-resolved gauge data are used to judge if the warning messages are in time, early or late.Data over a period of 4 months (summer 2002) are used for verification. The largest number of warnings (1790) was obtained for moderate precipitation. About 55% of these warnings were in time, 23% were early and 22% were late. This finding is in a good agreement with the defined risk level for warnings (50%), indicating that the model for calculating the risk factors is reliable. Less warnings in time, and more late warnings were found for heavy and extreme precipitation. Hence, the risk levels need to be lowered for heavy and extreme precipitation, in order to reduce the number of late warnings.     

Considérations sur le volcanisme post-ophiolitique dans les Alpes occidentales

Résumé L'activité magmatique ophiolitique du géosynclinal alpin (diabases, gabbros, serpentines, etc.) a été suivie par une activité à caractère volcanique moins bien connue. En effet, les appareils correspondant à cette activité ont complètement disparu; nous devons nous contenter pour tous renseignements de l'étude des fragments de roches contenus dans des grauwackes tertiaires appartenant au Flysch (grès de Taveyanne, grès d'AItdorf pro parte, grès du Champsaur).La détermination de la nature originelle des laves est, en outre, rendue difficile par le fait, découvert récemment, que ces grauwackes ont subi un métamorphisme régional les plaçant dans le faciès à zéolites; on peut raisonnablement admettre qu'il s'agissait d'andésites basaltiques.L'áge des épanchements est encore indéterminé, il doit être compris entre le Crétacé supérieur et la fin de l'Eocène. L'hypothèse la plus plausible consiste à admettre que les volcans, aujourd'hui complètement érodés se trouvaient dans la partie la plus interne du domaine pennique. Toutefois au moment du dépôt des grès de Taveyanne, les coulées ne se trouvaient plus dans leur position initiale, elles avaient glissé vers l'avant-pays sous forme d'une nappe.Il est très probable que cette activité volcanique post-ophiolitique n'est pas restreinte au segment franco-suisse des Alpes occidentales mais que des formations analogues aux grès de Taveyanne se retrouvent ailleurs, notamment en Sicile et dans les Apennins.

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The magmatic activity which gave birth to the ophiolites (diabases, gabbros, serpentinites) of the alpine geosyncline was followed by subaerial volcanism. This volcanic activity is not well known as the volcanoes were completely destroyed by erosion. Our only source of information is to be found in fragments of volcanic rocks which are part of Tertiary Flysch graywackes (Taveyanne sandstones, part of the Altorf sandstones, Champsaur sandstones).The determination of the initial composition of the lavas is further complicated by metasomatic transformations; it has been recently shown that the Taveyanne graywackes were submitted to a light regional metamorphism corresponding to the zeolitic facies ofCoombs. However, it seems that these lavas were originally basaltic andesites.The age of this volcanism is not precisely known, it cannot be later than Upper Eocene as the time of deposition of the Taveyanne sandstones is Uppermost Eocene-Lower Oligocene; it is probably post-Cenomanian. It is likely that the volcanoes were located in the southern part of the Penninic zone; however at the time of deposition of the graywackes the volcanic flows had already left their initial location, gliding toward the Foreland as part of a Nappe.Very probably, remnants of this post-ophiolitic volcanism are not restricted to the French-Swiss segment of the Western Alps, but will be found elsewhere, particularly in the Apennine Mountains and in Sicily.

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Zusammenfassung Die magmatische Tätigkeit, die Ophiolithe (Diabase, Gabbros, Serpentinite) der alpinen Geosynklinale entstehen ließ, wurde von subärischem Vulkanismus abgelöst. Diese Vulkantätigkeit ist wenig bekannt, da die Vulkane durch Erosion völlig zerstört wurden. Unsere einzige Informationsquelle findet sich in vulkanischen Gesteinsfragmenten, die Bestandteile der Tertiär-Flysch-Grauwacken sind.Die Bestimmung der ursprünglichen Zusammensetzung der Laven wird weiter durch metasomatische Umwandlungen erschwert. Kürzlich wurde gezeigt, daß die Taveyanne-Grauwacken einem regionalen Metamorphismus ausgesetzt waren, welcher der zeolithischen Fazies von Coombs entspricht. Es scheint jedoch, daß diese Laven ursprünglich basaltische Andésite waren.Das Alter dieses Vulkanismus ist nicht genau bekannt; es kann aber nicht später sein als das Obere Eozän, da die Ablagerungszeit der Taveyanne-Sandsteine Oberstes Eozän—Unteres Oligozän ist. Wahrscheinlich lagen die Vulkane im südlichen Teil der penninischen Zone; zur Zeit der Ablagerung der Grauwacken waren die Vulkanite bereits in die Überschiebungsmassen mit einbezogen.Sehr wahrscheinlich sind die Überreste dieses nach-ophiolithischen Vulkanismus nicht auf den französisch-schweizerischen Abschnitt der Westalpen beschränkt, sondern werden sich auch andernorts speziell auf dem Apennin und in Sizilien finden lassen.

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Near-Surface Flow Fields Deduced Using Correlation Tracking and Time-Distance Analyses

Near-photospheric flow fields on the Sun are deduced using two independent methods applied to the same time series of velocity images observed by SOI-MDI on SOHO. Differences in travel times between f modes entering and leaving each pixel measured using time-distance helioseismology are used to determine sites of supergranular outflows. Alternatively, correlation tracking analysis of mesogranular scales of motion applied to the same time series is used to deduce the near-surface flow field. These two approaches provide the means to assess the patterns and evolution of horizontal flows on supergranular scales even near disk center, which is not feasible with direct line-of-sight Doppler measurements. We find that the locations of the supergranular outflows seen in flow fields generated from correlation tracking coincide well with the locations of the outflows determined from the time-distance analysis, with a mean correlation coefficient after smoothing of _s=0.890. Near-surface velocity field measurements can be used to study the evolution of the supergranular network, as merging and splitting events are observed to occur in these images. The data consist of one 2048-min time series of high-resolution (0.6 pixels) line-of-sight velocity images taken by MDI on 1997 January 16–18 at a cadence of one minute.     

Spatial and temporal variability and drivers of net ecosystem metabolism in western Gulf of Mexico estuaries

Net ecosystem metabolism (NEM) is becoming a commonly used ecological indicator of estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates. Estuarine ecosystem processes are spatially and temporally variable, but the corresponding variability in NEM has not been properly assessed. Spatial and temporal variability in NEM was assessed in four western Gulf of Mexico shallow water estuaries. NEM was calculated from high-frequency dissolved oxygen measurements. Interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales were assessed for NEM, gross primary production (GPP), and respiration (R) rate variability. Seasonal, monthly, and daily temporal scales in NEM, GPP, and R were also assessed. Environmental conditions were then compared to NEM to determine which factors were correlated with each temporal and spatial scale. There was significant NEM spatial variability on interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales. Significant spatial variability was ephemeral, so it was difficult to ascertain which environmental conditions were most influential at each spatial scale. Significant temporal variability in NEM on seasonal, monthly, and daily scales was found and it was correlated to temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow, respectively. NEM correlated strongly with dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity, but the relationships where different in each bay. The dynamics of NEM on daily scales indicate that freshwater inflow events may be the main driver of NEM in the semiarid estuaries studied. The variable nature of NEM found here is further evidence that it is not valid to use single station monitoring deployments for assessment of whole estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates in large ecosystems. The relationship between NEM and temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow events could drive predictive models assessing the potential influence of projected climate change and watershed development scenarios on estuarine metabolic rates.     

North-south transfer zones and paleo-morphological reconstruction of the Xylokastro area (Corinth Gulf, Greece)

A large number of studies have documented the structural and sedimentary architecture of the Corinth Gulf, especially the major E–W trending normal faults important in accommodating the main extensional strain and associated growth of the Gilbert fan deltas. However, the role of several N–S oriented structures that crop out at the surface and are detectable at depth by seismic reflection and gravity surveys are not clearly understood. Based on new geological data, collected near Xylokastro, we describe the N–S oriented tectonic activity of this area. The mapped inland faults correspond to off-shore structures identified in re-interpreted seismic lines and appear to have acted as a major transfer zone during the opening of the Corinth Gulf. Reconstruction of the paleo-topography based on sedimentary facies and the environment of clay mineral formation suggest these transfer zones played an important role in controlling both local structural relief and depositional conditions of the Gilbert fan deltas.     

Large-eddy simulation of plant canopy flows using plant-scale representation

Turbulent flow in a corn canopy is simulated using large-eddy simulation (LES) with a Lagrangian dynamic Smagorinsky model. A new numerical representation of plant canopies is presented that resolves approximately the local structure of plants and takes into account their spatial arrangement. As a validation, computational results are compared with experimental data from recent field particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements and two previous experimental campaigns. Numerical simulation using the traditional modelling method to represent the canopy (field-scale approach) is also conducted as a comparison to the plant-scale approach. The combination of temporal PIV data, LES and spatial PIV data allows us to couple a wide range of relevant turbulence scales. There is good agreement between experimental data and numerical predictions using the plant-scale approach in terms of various turbulence statistics. Within the canopy, the plant-scale approach also allows the capture of more details than the field-scale approach, including instantaneous gusts that penetrate deep inside the canopy.