Biomagnification of persistent chlorinated and brominated contaminants in food web components of the Yellow Sea

Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were measured in 32 species inhabiting the Yellow Sea to assess their bioaccumulation potentials. The concentrations in these samples were lower than those reported for other countries or locations. Relatively high levels of BDE 209 in biota suggest an ongoing source of deca-BDE technical mixing within the Yellow Sea. The accumulation profiles of PCBs were uniform between species, but the concentrations of OCPs and PBDEs varied widely. Pelagic and benthic food-chain components were separated by their δ¹³C values. Significant positive correlations between δ¹⁵N and PCB 153, PCB 138, p,p′-DDE, oxy-chlordane, and trans-nonachlordane were found only for pelagic consumers, indicating that the pelagic food chain is an important bioaccumulation pathway for selected PCB and OCP compounds. The other compounds did not show any biomagnification through benthic and pelagic food chains, suggesting the lower bioaccumulation potentials of these contaminants.     

Evaluation of GPS orbit prediction strategies for the IGS Ultra-rapid products

The International GNSS Service (IGS) provides Ultra-rapid GPS & GLONASS orbits every 6 h. Each product is composed of 24 h of observed orbits with predicted orbits for the next 24 h. We have studied how the orbit prediction performance varies as a function of the arc length of the fitted observed orbits and the parameterization strategy used to estimate the empirical solar radiation pressure (SRP) effects. To focus on the dynamical aspects of the problem, nearly ideal conditions have been adopted by using IGS Rapid orbits and known earth rotation parameters (ERPs) as observations. Performance was gauged by comparison with Rapid orbits as truth by examining WRMS and median orbit differences over the first 6-h and the full 24-h prediction intervals, as well as the stability of the Helmert frame alignment parameters. Two versions of the extended SRP orbit model developed by the Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) were tested. Adjusting all nine SRPs (offsets plus once-per-revolution sines and cosines in each satellite-centered frame direction) for each satellite shows smaller mean sub-daily, scale, and origin translation differences. On the other hand, eliminating the four once-per-revolution SRP parameters in the sun-ward and the solar panel axis directions yields orbit predictions that are much more rotationally stable. We found that observed arc lengths of 40–45 h produce the most stable and accurate predictions during 2010. A combined strategy of rotationally aligning the 9 SRP results to the 5 SRP frame should give optimal predictions with about 13 mm mean WRMS residuals over the first 6 h and 50 mm over 24 h. Actual Ultra-rapid performance will be degraded due to the unavoidable rotational errors from ERP predictions.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS and the weight-of-evidence model

The weights-of-evidence model (a Bayesian probability model) was applied to the task of evaluating landslide susceptibility using GIS. Using landslide location and a spatial database containing information such as topography, soil, forest, geology, land cover and lineament, the weights-of-evidence model was applied to calculate each relevant factor's rating for the Boun area in Korea, which had suffered substantial landslide damage following heavy rain in 1998. In the topographic database, the factors were slope, aspect and curvature; in the soil database, they were soil texture, soil material, soil drainage, soil effective thickness and topographic type; in the forest map, they were forest type, timber diameter, timber age and forest density; lithology was derived from the geological database; land-use information came from Landsat TM satellite imagery; and lineament data from IRS satellite imagery. Tests of conditional independence were performed for the selection of factors, allowing 43 combinations of factors to be analysed. For the analysis of mapping landslide susceptibility, the contrast values, W ⁺ and W ^-, of each factor's rating were overlaid spatially. The results of the analysis were validated using the previous landslide locations. The combination of slope, curvature, topography, timber diameter, geology and lineament showed the best results. The results can be used for hazard prevention and land-use planning.     

Combining landslide susceptibility maps obtained from frequency ratio,logistic regression,and artificial neural network models using ASTER images and GIS

Landslide-related factors were extracted from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images, and integrated techniques were developed, applied, and verified for the analysis of landslide susceptibility in Boun, Korea, using a geographic information system (GIS). Digital elevation model (DEM), lineament, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land-cover factors were extracted from the ASTER images for analysis. Slope, aspect, and curvature were calculated from a DEM topographic database. Using the constructed spatial database, the relationships between the detected landslide locations and six related factors were identified and quantified using frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR), and artificial neural network (ANN) models. These relationships were used as factor ratings in an overlay analysis to create landslide susceptibility indices and maps. Three landslide susceptibility maps were then combined and applied as new input factors in the FR, LR, and ANN models to make improved susceptibility maps. All of the susceptibility maps were verified by comparison with known landslide locations not used for training the models. The combined landslide susceptibility maps created using three landslide-related input factors showed improved accuracy (87.00% in FR, 88.21% in LR, and 86.51% in ANN models) compared to the individual landslide susceptibility maps (84.34% in FR, 85.40% in LR, and 74.29% in ANN models) generated using the six factors from the ASTER images.     

Influence of non-feedback variations of radiation on the determination of climate feedback

Recent studies have estimated the magnitude of climate feedback based on the correlation between time variations in outgoing radiation flux and sea surface temperature (SST). This study investigates the influence of the natural non-feedback variation (noise) of the flux occurring independently of SST on the determination of climate feedback. The observed global monthly radiation flux is used from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) for the period 2000–2008. In the observations, the time lag correlation of radiation and SST shows a distorted curve with low statistical significance for shortwave radiation while a significant maximum at zero lag for longwave radiation over the tropics. This observational feature is explained by simulations with an idealized energy balance model where we see that the non-feedback variation plays the most significant role in distorting the curve in the lagged correlation graph, thus obscuring the exact value of climate feedback. We also demonstrate that the climate feedback from the tropical longwave radiation in the CERES data is not significantly affected by the noise. We further estimate the standard deviation of radiative forcings (mainly from the noise) relative to that of the non-radiative forcings, i.e., the noise level from the observations and atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model simulations in the framework of the simple model. The estimated noise levels in both CERES (>13 %) and climate models (11–28 %) are found to be far above the critical level (~5 %) that begins to misrepresent climate feedback.     

Sensitivity analysis of influencing parameters on slit-type barrier performance against debris flow using 3D-based numerical approach

Extreme rainfall-induced debris flow can be catastrophic to an urban area,and installation of slit-type barriers can prevent such damage while minimizing negative impact on environments.However,the performance of slit-type barriers against debris flows remains poorly identified partly due to the innate complexity in interactions between debris flow and solid structure.This paper investigated the flow behaviors of debris affected by slit-type barriers using the computational fluid dynamics(CFD)method,in which the numerical model based on the volume of fluid method was verified using the physical modeling results.The sensitivity analysis was performed by building metamodels to determine the primary parameters influencing the barrier performance against debris flows among various variables,in which the effect of input properties and design parameters,particularly the soil concentration in fluidized debris,initial velocity and volume of debris,the barrier height,and the opening ratio,was evaluated from the perspectives of the flow energy reduction and debris trapping.The initial velocity and volume of debris were found to play a significant role in determining the debris flow characteristics.A decrease in the opening ratio in the channel primarily facilitated the energy reduction and trapping due to the reduced opening size.However,the barrier height exhibited a limited effect when the height was sufficiently high to block the debris flow volume.In addition,it was observed that the double barrier system effectively increased the energy reduction while keeping the benefit of open-type barrier.The developed simulation method and obtained results provide an effective tool and an insight that can contribute to an optimum design of the debris-flow barrier.     

Application of enterococci antibiotic resistance patterns for contamination source identification at Huntington Beach,California

Huntington Beach, California, one of the most popular surfing spots in the world, is plagued by sporadic, elevated levels of fecal bacteria. To assist with pollution source identification, we analyzed antibiotic resistance patterns (ARPs) of enterococci from four known sources (bird feces, urban runoff, coastal marsh sediment and sewage effluent from local sanitation district) and one unknown source (seawater) using seven antibiotics at four concentrations each. Of 2491 enterococci tested, all were resistant to at least one antibiotic at some level. Discriminant analysis indicated that the average correct classification rates for bird feces and urban runoff sources were above 80%. Sewage effluent contained mixed fecal sources. Sixty-four percent of the sewage isolates classified with the sewage category, while the other 35% of isolates were assigned evenly across the other three categories. When enterococci isolated from the seawater were classified using the known ARP database, it was evident that bird feces were the source of surf zone contamination on some days while the coastal salt marsh and sewage plume may have impacted the surf zone water quality to various degrees during other times.     

Environmental management of marine fish culture in Hong Kong

Marine fish farming is an important commercial practice in Hong Kong. Marine fish farms located in eutrophic coastal waters often face the threat of severe dissolved oxygen depletion associated with algal blooms and red tides. On the other hand, mariculture activities also contribute to pollution. The sustainable management of mariculture requires proper siting of the fish farms and stocking density control. Both of these are related to the carrying capacity of the water body concerned, which is mainly governed by its flushing characteristics. A simple method to determine the carrying capacity of a fish farm has been developed by using three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic modelling and its effective coupling with a diagenetic water quality model. A systematic methodology using numerical tracer experiments has been developed to compute the tidal flushing in a fish farm. The flushing time is determined from the results of a numerical tracer experiment using robust 3D hydrodynamic and mass transport models. A unit tracer concentration is initially prescribed inside the region of interest and zero elsewhere; the subsequent mass transport and the mass removal process are then tracked. The fish farms are usually situated in well-sheltered shallow embayments and may not connect directly to the open water. It is found that it is necessary to define both "local" and "system-wide" flushing times to represent the effectiveness of the mass exchange with the surrounding water body and the open sea respectively. A diagenetic water quality model simulating the sediment-water-pollutant interaction is employed to address the response of the water column and the benthic layer to pollution discharges. With the flushing rate reliably computed, the carrying capacity of the fish farm can be determined in terms of key water quality parameters: chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, organic nitrogen and potential lowest dissolved oxygen level on a day of negligible photosynthetic production. The predictions are well-supported by field data.     

Estimates of Tsunami Risk Zones on the Coasts Adjacent to the East (Japan) Sea based on the Synthetic Catalogue

Prognostic characteristics of tsunamis in the East (Japan) Sea based on numerical simulations are investigated by using linear long wave theory. Due to the lack of observed data, the concept of the synthetic catalogue is applied to generate possible tsunami scenarios. It includes four real events that occurred in the East (Japan) Sea during the 20th century, 24 hypothetical tsunamigenic earthquakes located in the gap zones of the seismic map, and 76 idealized model ‘hydrodynamic’ sources covering the eastern part of the East (Japan) Sea uniformly. The tsunami wave height distributions along the East (Japan) Sea coastline due to these hypothetical events are computed. From the geographical distributions of tsunami wave height for all possible events, it is found that there exist several coastal locations where the tsunami risk is relatively lower than in other zones. The relation between the maximal value of the tsunami height and its average value is analyzed. It is found that the maximal tsunami height does not exceed the mean wave height times a constant. The uniform bounded curve for all areas can be obtained if the mean wave height is replaced by the modified mean wave height (1/3 of largest waves). The problem of quantitative definition of the prognostic tsunami wave height for each location based on the data from the synthetic catalogue is discussed. The results of tsunami wave height analysis based on the synthetic catalogue can be used as a tool for coastal disaster mitigation planning.     

240-kHz bistatic bottom scattering measurements in shallow water

High-frequency bistatic sediment scattering experiment was conducted in the shallow waters off the east coasts of Korea. Acoustic data were taken as a function of grazing angle (30°, 45°, and 60°), scattered angle (30°, 45°, and 60°), and bistatic (azimuthal) angle (0°, 60°, and 120°). Besides a flat bottom it was artificially raked so as to produce directional ripples. The measured scattering strengths for a flat bottom were compared to model predictions of D.R. Jackson et al. (1986). The surface reverberation component is seen to dominate over the volume scattering part at the frequency of 240 kHz. Compared to the flat bottom case, the scattering strengths for directional ripples showed lower and higher variation depending on the ripple's orientation