Continuous Bayesian networks for probabilistic environmental risk mapping

Bayesian networks (BNs) are being increasingly applied to environmental research. Nonetheless, most of the literature related to environmental sciences use discrete or discretized data, which entails a loss of information. We propose a novel methodology based on continuous BNs to predict the probability that surface waters do not meet the standards, in relation to nitrate concentration, established by the European Water Framework Directive. In order to achieve our purpose, a Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN), was developed and applied to estimate and map the risk of failing to meet the European standards established. The TAN models were tested by means of the k-fold cross validation method. The results revealed that the TAN model performed proper risk maps and suggested that poor water quality is highly probable in watersheds dominated by irrigated herbaceous crops. On the contrary, “good surface water status” is more likely to occur in areas where forest is notably present.     

High‐pressure metamorphic evolution of eclogite and associated metapelite from the Chuacús complex (Guatemala Suture Zone): Constraints from phase equilibria modelling coupled with Lu‐Hf and U‐Pb geochronology

As is common in suture zones, widespread high‐pressure rocks in the Caribbean region reached eclogite facies conditions close to ultrahigh‐pressure metamorphism. Besides eclogite lenses, abundant metapelitic rocks in the Chuacús complex (Guatemala Suture Zone) also preserve evidence for high‐pressure metamorphism. A comprehensive petrological and geochronological study was undertaken to constrain the tectonometamorphic evolution of eclogite and associated metapelite from this area in central Guatemala. The integration of field and petrological data allows the reconstruction of a previously unknown segment of the prograde P–T path and shows that these contrasting rock types share a common high‐pressure evolution. An early stage of high‐pressure/low‐temperature metamorphism at 18–20 kbar and 530–580°C is indicated by garnet core compositions as well as the nature and composition of mineral inclusions in garnet, including kyanite–jadeite–paragonite in an eclogite, and chloritoid–paragonite–rutile in a pelitic schist. Peak high‐pressure conditions are constrained at 23–25 kbar and 620–690°C by combining mineral assemblages, isopleth thermobarometry and Zr‐in‐rutile thermometry. A garnet/whole‐rock Lu‐Hf date of 101.8 ± 3.1 Ma in the kyanite‐bearing eclogite indicates the timing of final garnet growth at eclogite facies conditions, while a Lu‐Hf date of 95.5 ± 2.1 Ma in the pelitic schist reflects the average age of garnet growth spanning from an early eclogite facies evolution to a final amphibolite facies stage. Concordant U‐Pb LA‐ICP‐MS zircon data from the pelitic schist, in contrast, yield a mean age of 74.0 ± 0.5 Ma, which is equivalent to a U‐Pb monazite lower‐intercept age of 73.6 ± 2.0 Ma in the same sample, and comparable within errors with a less precise U‐Pb lower‐intercept age of 80 ± 13 Ma obtained in post‐eclogitic titanite from the kyanite‐bearing eclogite. These U‐Pb metamorphic ages are interpreted as dating an amphibolite facies overprint. Protolith U‐Pb zircon ages of 167.1 ± 4.2 Ma and 424.6 ± 5.0 Ma from two eclogite samples reveal that mafic precursors in the Chuacús complex originated in multiple tectonotemporal settings from the Silurian to Jurassic. The integration of petrological and geochronological data suggests that subduction of the continental margin of the North American plate (Chuacús complex) beneath the Greater Antilles arc occurred during an Albian‐Cenomanian pre‐collisional stage, and that a subsequent Campanian collisional stage is probably responsible of the amphibolite facies overprint and late syncollisional exhumation.     

Age of the Floors of the Protector and Dove Basins (Scotia Sea)

The tectonic evolution of the transition zone from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean is closely linked with the destruction of the American–Antarctic continental bridge in the Scotia Sea. The western segment of the bridge combines the Terror, Pirie, and Bruce banks, as well as the Protector and Dove basins between them. Modeling—primarily based on original geological and geophysical materials—of linear magnetic anomalies and calculation of the floor kinematics in these basins have made it possible for the first time to reveal that the collapse of the western segment of the American–Antarctic continental bridge occurred 18–25 Ma ago via a two-stage separation of the Pirie Rise from the Bruce Rise with the formation of the Dove Basin and a two stage separation of the Terror Rise from the Pirie Rise with the formation of the Protector Basin.     

Structure of Subsurface Sediments in the Scan Basin (Scotia Sea)

The structure of sediments in the Scotia Sea is used as a basis for reconstructing the geological history of its bottom in the Late Quaternary. The Scan Basin is one of the main elements of the topography of the southern Scotia Sea. Its formation played a considerable role in the fragmentation of the continent, which included the Bruce and Discovery banks. The main parameters of the sediment layer in the Scan Basin have been reconstructed by the present time, but its top part has not been studied. In this work, we analyze the first data obtained on the R/V Gesperidas with the use of a TOPAS PS 18/40 high-resolution seismic profilograph in 2012. Three layers in the subsurface sediments on the bottom of the Scan Basin were specified for the first time. The mean periods of their deposition in the Late Quaternary were determined as 115000 years for the first, 76000 years for the second, and 59 000 years for the third layer from the surface of the bottom. The duration of the total accumulation period of the three layers is about 250000 years.     

The Nile Cone: Submarine fan development by cyclic sedimentation

The Quaternary sections of the Nile Cone in the eastern Mediterranean are formed by regionally extensive repetitions of sediment sequences (cyclothems s.l.) showing a successive, orderly arrangement of sediment types. Detailed lithofacies analysis reveals the recurrence of three basic terms in many cores: a basal olive-gray hemipelagic mud and turbidite sequence; a middle sapropel sequence; and an upper yellowish-orange hemipelagic sequence, including calcareous ooze, and a turbiditic sequence. This cyclic sedimentation closely reflects the Quaternary dynamics. The development of the Nile submarine fan in an enclosed, silled basin has resulted in a particularly close relation between biogenic-terrigenous depositional patterns and climatic and oceanographic factors affecting the Mediterranean.     

Metal distribution in sediment cores from São Paulo State Coast, Brazil

Ten sediment core samples with lengths ranging from 35 to 100 cm were collected in the Baixada Santista region and analyzed to determine As, Br, Co, Cr, Cs, Fe, Rb, Sb, Ta, Th, U, Zn and rare earths (Sc, Ce, Eu, La, Lu, Nd, Sm, Tb and Yb) level concentrations using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The studied region is located in the southeastern coast of São Paulo State and is comprised of a densely urbanized area, the largest industrial complex of the country, with a predominance of petrochemical and fertilizer plants. It is also home to Brazil’s most important and busiest port. The conclusions found that the As, La, Sm, Ne, Ce, Eu, Hf, Ta, Th, and U elements have a high background level in the region and that Fe and Zn were the main indicators of anthropogenic contribution in the sediments.     

Peculiarities of the East Scotia ridge’s geochronology

The first map of the acoustic basement and the new map of chrons C1-C5E for the region of the East Scotia mid-ocean ridge have been made. The analysis of the maps and the calculations have indicated that the sea-floor spreading at the ridge’s flanks started in its southeast in the interval of chrons C5Er-6An (18.52–20.17 Ma BP). The maximal spreading rate (5.3 cm/year) was in the interval of chrons C5Bn-C5Br (14.78–15.97 Ma BP). Then, the spreading rate was slow and increased again from 3–6 Ma BP until the present. The spreading in the last 1–2 Ma was accompanied by the propagating of the axes southwards in the E1, E2, and E4 segments and northwards in the E8 and E9 segments.     

Tectonic and oceanographic control of sedimentary patterns in a small oceanic basin: Dove Basin (Scotia Sea,Antarctica)

Dove Basin, a small oceanic domain located within the southern Scotia Sea, evidences a complex tectonic evolution linked to the development of the Scotia Arc. The basin also straddles the junction between the main Southern Ocean water masses: the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the Southeast Pacific Deep Water (SPDW) and the Weddell Sea Deep Water (WSDW). Analysis of multichannel seismic reflection profiles, together with swath bathymetry data, reveals the main structure and sediment distribution of the basin, allowing a reconstruction of the tectonostratigraphic evolution of the basin and assessment of the main bottom water flows that influenced its depositional development. Sediment dispersed in the basin was largely influenced by gravity‐driven transport from adjacent continental margins, later modified by deep bottom currents. Sediments derived from melting icebergs and extensive ice sheets also contributed to a fraction of the basin deposits. We identify four stages in the basin evolution which – based on regional age assumptions – took place during the early Miocene, middle Miocene, late Miocene–early Pliocene and late Pliocene–Quaternary. The onsets of the ACC flow in Dove Basin during the early Miocene, the WSDW flow during the middle Miocene, and the SPDW during the late Miocene were influenced by tectonic events that facilitated the opening of new oceanic gateways in the region. The analysis of Dove Basin reveals that tectonics is a primary factor influencing its sedimentary stacking patterns, the structural development of new oceanic gateways permitting the inception of deep‐water flows that have since controlled the sedimentary processes.