Comparison of spatial interpolation methods for gridded bias removal in surface temperature forecasts

All numerical weather prediction (NWP) models inherently have substantial biases, especially in the forecast of near-surface weather variables. Statistical methods can be used to remove the systematic error based on historical bias data at observation stations. However, many end users of weather forecasts need bias corrected forecasts at locations that scarcely have any historical bias data. To circumvent this limitation, the bias of surface temperature forecasts on a regular grid covering Iran is removed, by using the information available at observation stations in the vicinity of any given grid point. To this end, the running mean error method is first used to correct the forecasts at observation stations, then four interpolation methods including inverse distance squared weighting with constant lapse rate (IDSW-CLR), Kriging with constant lapse rate (Kriging-CLR), gradient inverse distance squared with linear lapse rate (GIDS-LR), and gradient inverse distance squared with lapse rate determined by classification and regression tree (GIDS-CART), are employed to interpolate the bias corrected forecasts at neighboring observation stations to any given location. The results show that all four interpolation methods used do reduce the model error significantly, but Kriging-CLR has better performance than the other methods. For Kriging-CLR, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were decreased by 26% and 29%, respectively, as compared to the raw forecasts. It is found also, that after applying any of the proposed methods, unlike the raw forecasts, the bias corrected forecasts do not show spatial or temporal dependency.     

An advanced data collection procedure in bivariate drought frequency analysis

In recent years, the bivariate frequency analysis of drought duration and severity using independent drought events and copula functions has been under extensive application. Meanwhile, emphasis on the procedure of independent drought data collection leads to the omission of the actual potential of short-term extreme droughts within a long-term independent drought. However, a long-term individual continuous drought as an Unconnected Drought Runs can be considered as a combination of short-term Connected Drought Runs. Thus, an advanced and new procedure of data collection in the bivariate drought characteristics analysis has been developed in this study. The results indicated a high relative advantage of the new proposed procedure in analysing bivariate drought characteristics (i.e., drought duration and severity frequency analysis). This advantage has been reflected in the more appropriate determination of the best copula and significant reduction in the uncertainty of bivariate drought frequency analysis.     

Apatite U–Pb geochronology and whole rock,Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic geochemistry of XV mafic-ultramafic intrusion,Bafq, Central Iran: Implications for petrogenesis and tectonic setting

The XV mafic-ultramafic intrusion is located in the western part of the Posht-e-Badam Block (PBB) within the Central Iranian Micro-Continent (CIMC). Petrographically, the intrusion is composed of gabbro and pyroxenite. Apatite U–Pb dating has established the crystallization age of this intrusion to be 363 ± 67 Ma. The XV intrusive rocks are tholeiitic to slightly calc-alkaline in nature and are characterized by an enrichment of large ion lithophile elements (LILE) and light rare earth elements (LREE) relative to high field strength elements (HFSE) and Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREE), respectively. The major oxide elements display continuous trends relative to SiO₂. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr(i) ratios range from 0.7045 to 0.7056, and the εNd(i) values range from 2.63 to 3.30. In addition, the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios exhibit a narrow range, varying from 18.68 to 18.70, 15.67 to 15.71, and 38.84 to 38.99, respectively. The geochemical and isotopic characteristics suggest that the parental magma was derived from a Sub- Continental Lithospheric Mantle (SCLM) that was modified by oceanic slab-derived components. The locations of the XV intrusive rocks in εNd(i) versus TDM (Ga) and Nb/La versus discrimination diagrams further support this conclusion. Fractional crystallization is identified as the dominant process influencing the formation of distinct lithological units within the XV intrusive rocks. Our newly presented isotopic and geochronological data, when considered in the regional context, suggest that the XV intrusive rocks were formed in an extensional tectonic setting. In this scenario, upwelling from the asthenospheric mantle induced heating, leading to the melting of previously subduction-modified SCLM. Comparative analysis with previously published ages indicates that extensional magmatism in the PBB continued into the Middle Paleozoic.     

Discovery and exploration of the Gosowong epithermal gold deposit, Halmahera, Indonesia

The Gosowong epithermal gold deposit, on the island of Halmahera in eastern Indonesia, is located in an area of primary tropical rain forest with no previous history of gold mining or record of gold mineralisation. The deposit occurs in a newly recognised mineral district which contains a number of epithermal vein systems and at least two centres of low-grade porphyry style Cu–Au mineralisation. Several zones of argillic and advanced argillic alteration have been noted which may be related to additional centres of mineralisation. Gosowong is classified as a low-sulphidation epithermal quartz vein. Bonanza-grade gold–silver mineralisation is developed in shoots over a 400-m strike section of the vein system. Three types of veining are recognized; quartz–adularia veins and breccias; quartz–chlorite–illite veins and breccias; and crystalline or chalcedonic quartz vein stockworks. The area was targetted using a simple geological concept and the deposit was discovered and tested using basic exploration techniques commonly applied in the rugged tropical terrains of Indonesia. Sequential exploration methods comprised reconnaissance drainage sampling of stream sediment, BLEG and float media, ridge and spur soil sampling, prospect scale grid soil sampling, hand trenching and diamond drilling. Lapse time from identification of the initial reconnaissance anomaly to an inferred resource estimate of almost 1 million ounces of gold was less than 3.5 years. This case history illustrates that very detailed exploration is necessary to locate high-grade vein-type gold deposits in a tropical environment, but demonstrates that such resources still remain to be discovered in the relatively under-explored Neogene magmatic arcs of Indonesia.     

Water quality variations in different climates of Iran: toward modeling total dissolved solid using soft computing techniques

In present paper, wavelet analysis of total dissolved solid that monitored at Nazlu Chay (northwest of Iran), Tajan (north of Iran), Zayandeh Rud (central of Iran) and Helleh (south of Iran) basins with various climatic conditions, have been studied. Daubechies wavelet at suitable level (db4) has been calculated for TDS of each selected basins. The performance of artificial neural networks (ANN), two different adaptive-neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) including ANFIS with grid partition (ANFIS-GP) and ANFIS with subtractive clustering (ANFIS-SC), gene expression programming (GEP), wavelet-ANN, wavelet-ANFIS and wavelet-GEP in predicting TDS of mentioned basins were assessed over a period of 20 years at twelve different hydrometric stations. EC (μmhos/cm), Na (meq L^?1) and Cl (meq L^?1) parameters were selected (based on Pearson correlation) as input variables to forecast amount of TDS in four studied basins. To develop hybrid wavelet-AI models, the original observed data series was decomposed into sub-time series using Daubechies wavelets at suitable level for each basin. Based on the statistical criteria of correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), the hybrid wavelet-AI models performance were better than single AI models in all basins. A comparison was made between these artificial intelligence approaches which emphasized the superiority of wavelet-GEP over the other intelligent models with amount of RMSE 18.978, 6.774, 9.639 and 318.363 mg/l, in Nazlu Chay, Tajan, Zayandeh Rud and Helleh basins, respectively.     

Geophysical Investigation of Fresh‐Saline Water Interface: A Case Study from South Punjab,Pakistan

The importance of the study of fresh‐saline water incursion cannot be over‐emphasized. Borehole techniques have been widely used, but they are quite expensive, intrusive, and time consuming. The electrical resistivity method has proved very successful in groundwater assessment. This advanced technique uses the calculation of Dar‐Zarrouk (D‐Z) parameters, namely longitudinal unit conductance, transverse unit resistance, and longitudinal resistivity has been employed by using 50 vertical electrical sounding points to assess the groundwater and delineate the fresh‐saline water interface over 1045 km² area of Khanewal in Southern Punjab of Pakistan. The x‐y plots and maps of D‐Z parameters were produced to establish a decipherable vision for the occurrence and distribution of different water‐bearing formations of fresh‐saline water aquifers through a complicated situation of intermixing of different resistivity ranges for fresh‐saline water bodies. This technique is useful to reduce the ambiguity produced by the process of equivalence and suppression which cause intermixing in differentiating fresh, brackish, and saline aquifers during interpretation. The fresh‐saline water interface is correlated very well with the previous studies of water quality analysis carried out in Khanewal area. The results suggest that the D‐Z parameters are useful for demarcating different aquifer zones. The behavior and pattern of D‐Z parameters with respect to occurrence and distribution of different water‐bearing formations were effectively identified and delineated in the study area.     

Prediction of the effect of water supplying from Shirindare dam on the Bojnourd aquifer using MODFLOW2000

In recent years, the water demand has been increasing considerably in Bojnourd, capital of Northern Khorasan province in NE of Iran, and the extracted water from Bojnourd alluvial aquifer, with an area of 65 km², is not sufficient for residents. The required water is going to be supplied from Shirindare dam, located out of Bojnourd aquifer’s catchment area; therefore, the groundwater levels will rise in some parts of the aquifer, due to the return flow of supplied water, which will cause serious problems for the city. In this paper, the groundwater flow system of Bojnourd aquifer has been numerically simulated using MODFLOW code in GMS interface. The model, primarily, was calibrated for a steady state condition for the mean values of oneyear period (Sep. 2009 to Sep. 2010) which has a steady condition with low stresses on the aquifer. Then the model was run/calibrated for transient conditions for a two year period (Sep. 2007 to Sep. 2009). After determining the hydraulic properties of the aquifer and confirming their validity, different management scenarios, were applied to the model. Results reveal that groundwater levels in the urban area will rise by over 3 m, by infiltrating 40% of supplied water from the Shirindare dam into the aquifer. To manage the rising water levels, two different management scenarios were applied to the aquifer model. In doing so and with proper management of aquifer exploitation during critical situations, not only will the groundwater level drop; also the city of Bojnourd can develop urban landscaping by constructing sports/cultural camping area using the extra pumped water.     

Robust strategies for climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector under deep climate uncertainty

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Adaptive planning in climate change condition is a significant challenge for effective management of water resources and agricultural...     

Evaluation of WorldView-3 VNIR and SWIR Data for Hydrothermal Alteration Mapping for Mineral Exploration: Case Study from Northeastern Isfahan,Iran

Natural Resources Research - This research evaluated the capability of WorldView-3 (WV-3) data in discriminating targets related to porphyry copper mineralization at the Tameh district in the...     

Prospecting for Clinoptilolite-Type Zeolite in a Volcano-Sedimentary Terrain Using ASTER Data: A Case Study from Alborz Mountains,Northern Iran

Zeolites are hydrated alumino-silicates of alkali metals and alkaline earth cations which occur in sedimentary and volcano-sedimentary terrains. In this study, visible–near-infrared and shortwave infrared data of ASTER were evaluated in prospecting for zeolite in part of the green tuff belt of the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. The study area is dominantly covered by sedimentary and volcano-sedimentary rocks, in which zeolite minerals occur only in the Late Eocene vitric tuff. Principal components (PC) analysis and spectral information divergence (SID) were used to discriminate and map the sedimentary and volcano-sedimentary units and the zeolite-rich areas, respectively. The X-ray diffraction and reflectance spectroscopy results indicated that clinoptilolite is the major type of zeolite mineral in this area. Comparing a color composite image, produced from PC images 1–3–5 as R–G–B, with the published geological map and the field investigations indicated that major sedimentary and volcano-sedimentary units as well as their alluvial deposits were discriminated efficiently. Results of the SID method, using an image-derived spectrum of clinoptilolite as a reference, showed good agreements with the field observations. The results of this study indicated that ASTER data are useful for discriminating various sedimentary and volcano-sedimentary units as well as clinoptilolite-type zeolite-rich areas in arid and semiarid terrains.