Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for drought forecasting

Drought causes huge losses in agriculture and has many negative influences on natural ecosystems. In this study, the applicability of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for drought forecasting and quantitative value of drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), is investigated. For this aim, 10 rainfall gauging stations located in Central Anatolia, Turkey are selected as study area. Monthly mean rainfall and SPI values are used for constructing the ANFIS forecasting models. For all stations, data sets include a total of 516 data records measured between in 1964 and 2006 years and data sets are divided into two subsets, training and testing. Different ANFIS forecasting models for SPI at time scales 1–12 months were trained and tested. The results of ANFIS forecasting models and observed values are compared and performances of models were evaluated. Moreover, the best fit models have been also trained and tested by Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNN). The results demonstrate that ANFIS can be successfully applied and provide high accuracy and reliability for drought forecasting.     

The impact of water resources development projects on water vapor pressure trends in a semi-arid region, Turkey

The aim of this study was to investigate long-term seasonal trends and decadal change patterns of monthly mean water vapor pressure (WVP) observation series at 16 meteorological stations scattered point-wisely over the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) area in Turkey, where large-scale soil and water development projects have been put into practice since the 1970s. The record length of WVP observation series of each station varied between 31- and 41-years between 1962 and 2002. The monthly mean WVP observation series of each station was rearranged on seasonal basis. Sequential Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Spearman’s rank–order correlation tests were employed for detection of likely trends, and Kruskall–Wallis test was used to detect decadal variations in WVP series of each observation station. A possible area of representation for each meteorological station was determined by using the Thiessen polygons technique in a geographical information systems media. It was found that 15 seasonal WVP series have a positive trend covering 97% of the GAP area in the summer season; although one WVP series has a negative trend direction. However, in the spring season, 33% of the area had a positive trend, and a negative trend did not appear in any stations. WVP records in the winter season showed an increasing trend over 19% of the GAP area, whereas a decreasing trend prevailed in 9% of the area. The study results led us to conclude that the substantial increase of WVP observations in summer season could be attributed to both the shift from rain-fed agriculture to irrigated agriculture being made increasingly spacious year by year and building large water reservoirs in the GAP located in a semi-arid region. The results also indirectly suggested that the historical trends in the WVP parameters might be related to global climate change phenomenon.     

Investigation into regional thermal structure of the Thrace Region, NW Turkey, from aeromagnetic and borehole data

The aeromagnetic values over the study region are relatively uniform except for a few anomalies in the northeastern and southwestern areas. Analyses of aeromagnetic data were performed in NW Turkey, in order to have a look into the subsurface regional thermal structure of the region. For this purpose, power spectra, reduced to pole (RTP), and band-pass filtered anomalies were produced using geophysical techniques. Band-pass filtered data were produced from the RTP aeromagnetic anomalies to isolate near surface and undesired deep effects. Based on the aeromagnetic data interpretation, the thickness of the magnetized crust, named the Curie Point Depth (CPD), in the study area lies between 9.7 and 20.3 km. The CPD estimates in the Thrace region of Turkey indicate two shallow CPD (SCPD1 and SCPD2) zones (the Istranca Massif and the Saros Graben area). The deep CPD are located within the Thrace Basin with sediment thickness of about 9 km. The corresponding heat flow map prepared from the averaged thermal conductivities and thermal gradients from the CPD reveals the existence of one low heat flow zone (75 mW/m²) over the center of Thrace Basin, and two high heat flow zones over the Istranca Masif (100–125 mW/m²) in the northern side and Saros Graben (125–135 mW/m²) areas in the southern side of the Thrace Basin.     

Application of electrical resistivity tomography technique for investigation of landslides: a case from Turkey

Electrical resistivity imaging is a widely used tool in near surface geophysical surveys for investigation of various geological, environmental and engineering problems including landslide. In this study, an electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) survey was conducted in a landslide area, located in the Söke district of Aydın, Turkey. In 2003, the Neogene-aged units on the slope next to a newly built school building became unstable due to an excavation work and moved after a heavy rainfall. The resulting landslide partly covered the school. The authors carried out a 2-D resistivity survey along three profiles over the landslide mass using a Wenner configuration. It yielded useful information about the geometry and characteristics of the landslide. In addition, a 2-D synthetic resistivity modelling study was carried out to understand the response of the resistivity method to a landslide problem before the field surveys. Eight boreholes were also drilled in the landslide area. Both the drilling and resistivity results indicated the presence of a fault in the site. Also, the resistivity data from the line measured along the axis of the landslide revealed the surface of rupture.     

Continuous resistivity profiling survey in Mersin Harbour, Northeastern Mediterranean Sea

No detailed information has previously been available on the geological and geophysical characteristics of the sea floor and the underlying strata of Mersin Harbour, Northeastern Mediterranean Sea (Turkey). Continuous resistivity profiling (CRP) and borehole data from Mersin Harbour were used to interpret geoelectric stratigraphy of Neogene-Quaternary sediments in the area. This represents one of few such detailed case studies that have applied these valuable CRP techniques for the purpose of marine stratigraphic imaging. It was found that the Neogene-Quaternary sedimentary succession in the area consists of three geoelectric units (GU1, GU2, and GU3 from base to top). The lowest unit, GU1, has a resistivity value of greater than 20.0 ohm-m and consists of Miocene aged limestone and marl. The middle unit, GU2, is characterized by resistivity values ranging from 3.0 to 20.0 ohm-m. Its thickness is greater than 90 m, with the upper section being composed of stiff clay sequences which are Plio-Pleistocene in age. The uppermost unit, GU3, has resistivity values varying from 1.0 to 3.0 ohm-m. This unit displays a maximum thickness of 15 m, and is composed of Holocene muds together with gravel, sand, silt and clay (sometimes incorporating shells) materials of the Plio-Pleistocene age and their various mixtures, silty/clay limestone, and conglomerate sandstone. Comparisons of the geoelectric units with the depositional sequences interpreted from the available seismic data outwith, but close to, Mersin Harbour reveal that the geoelectric unit GU3 corresponds to the depositional sequences C (mainly Holocene) and B (mainly Plio-Pleistocene). The geoelectric unit GU2 partly correlates with the depositional sequence B which appears to be Plio-Pleistocene in age. The geoelectric unit GU1, which has not been encountered in previous seismic surveys, is a new discovery within Mersin Harbour. Limited correlation between the seismic and resistivity structures in the study area is attributed to differences in the acoustic impedance and resistivity contrasts of sub-bottom layers, as well as the penetration versus resolution performance of the systems.     

Preliminary chemical and micromorphological observations on Urartu (800–600 B.C.) ceramics,eastern Turkey

Anatolia has long been a major pottery production center of the ancient world, dating back 7000 cal yr B.P. The Early Iron Age Urartu Kingdom (800–600 B.C.) of eastern Anatolia is known for the production of high‐quality pottery, but little is known regarding firing technology and manufacture of these ceramics. Here we present a preliminary study of Urartu ceramic micromorphology and chemistry and suggest that the Urartus had good knowledge of local geology and intentionally used chemical fluxes (Pb, Rb, and Li) to attain desired firing temperatures. The sophisticated production of Urartu ceramics is comparable to later high‐quality Roman pottery (terra sigillata) procured from the same area. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Thermal structure of the crust in the Black Sea: comparative analysis of magnetic and heat flow data

This paper presents the first study of mapping of the Curie point depth (CPD) from magnetic data for the Black Sea and a comparison with a classical thermal modeling from heat flow data. The provided relationship between radially averaged power spectrum of the magnetic anomalies and the depths to the magnetic sources of the Black Sea vary from 22 to 36 km. Deepening of CPDs observed in the western and eastern Black Sea basins correspond with the thickest sediment areas, whereas the shallow CPDs are related to the Mid-Black Sea Ridge and thin sediment areas at the costal side of the Black Sea. For comparison, the temperature field was also modeled from heat flow data from the Black Sea along three approximately north–south directed profiles corresponding to known DSS soundings. The Curie isotherm along the profiles occurs at depths of 22–35 km. A comparison of the results of the two independent methods reveals only 8–10 % discrepancy. This discrepancy is equal to an accuracy of temperature determination from heat flow data.     

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Environmental Earth Sciences -     

Real-time gas monitoring at the Tekke Hamam geothermal field (Western Anatolia,Turkey): an assessment in relation to local seismicity

Natural Hazards - This study presents the results of a real-time gas monitoring experiment conducted, via the use of a quadrupole mass spectrometer, in a mofette field within the Tekke Hamam...