The potential added value of Regional Climate Models in South America using a multiresolution approach

This paper aims to identify those regions within the South American continent where the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have the potential to add value (PAV) compared to their coarser-resolution global forcing. For this, we used a spatial-scale filtering method based on the wavelet theory to distinguish the regional climatic signal present in atmospheric surface fields from observed data (CPC and TRMM) and 6 RCM simulations belonging to the CORDEX Project. The wavelet used for filtering was Haar wavelet, but a comparative analysis with Daubechies 4 wavelet indicated that meteorological fields or regional indices were not very sensitive to the wavelet selected. Once the longer wavelengths were filtered, we focused on analyzing the spatial variability of extreme rainfall and the spatiotemporal variability of maximum and minimum surface air temperature on a daily basis. The results obtained suggest essential differences in the spatial distribution of the small-scale signal of extreme precipitation between TRMM and regional models, together with a large dispersion between models. While TRMM and CPC register a large signal throughout the continent, the RCMs place it over the Andes Cordillera and some over tropical South America. PAV signal for surface air temperature was found over the Andes Cordillera and the Brazilian Highlands, which are regions characterized by complex topography, and also on the coasts of the continent. The signal came specially from the small-scale stationary component. The transient part is much smaller than the stationary one, except over la Plata Basin where they are of the same order of magnitude. Also, the RCMs and CPC showed a large spread between them in representing this transient variability. The results confirm that RCMs have the potential to add value in the representation of extreme precipitation and the mean surface temperature in South America. However, this condition is not applicable throughout the whole continent but is particularly relevant in those terrestrial regions where the surface forcing is strong, such as the Andes Cordillera or the coasts of the continent.     

Kinetics of crystal nucleation in ionic solutions: Electrostatics and hydration forces

The heat of precipitation, the mean crystal size and the broadness of crystal size distribution of barium sulfate precipitating in aqueous solutions of different background electrolytes (KCl, NaCl, LiCl, NaBr or NaF), was shown to vary at constant thermodynamic driving force (supersaturation) and constant ionic strength depending on the salt present in solution. The relative inversion in the effect of respective background ions on the characteristics of barite precipitate was observed between two studied supersaturation (Ω) and ionic strength (IS) conditions. The crystal size variance (β²) increased in the presence of background electrolytes in the order LiCl < NaCl < KCl at Ω = 10^3.33 and IS = 0.03 M and KCl < NaCl < LiCl at Ω = 10^3.77 and IS = 0.09 M. At a given Ω and IS the respective size of barite crystals decreased with increasing β² in chloride salts of different cations and remained constant in sodium salts of different anions.We suggest that ionic salts affect the kinetics of barite nucleation and growth due to their influence on water of solvation and bulk solvent structure. This idea is consistent with the hypothesis that the kinetic barrier for barium sulfate nucleation depends on the frequency of water exchange around respective building units that can be modified by additives present in solution. In electrolyte solution the relative switchover between long range electrostatic interactions and short range hydration forces, which influence the dynamics of solvent exchange between an ion solvation shell and bulk fluid, results in the observed inversion in the effect of differently hydrated salts on nucleation rates and the resulting precipitate characteristics.     

Basin evolution of the northern part of the Northeast German Basin — Insights from a 3D structural model

A 3D structural model for the entire southwestern Baltic Sea and the adjacent onshore areas was created with the purpose to analyse the structural framework and the sediment distribution in the area. The model was compiled with information from several geological time-isochore maps and digital depth maps from the area and consists of six post-Rotliegend successions: The Upper Permian Zechstein; Lower Triassic; Middle Triassic; Upper Triassic–Jurassic; Cretaceous and Cenozoic. This structural model was the basis for a 3D backstripping approach, considering salt flow as a consequence of spatially changing overburden load distribution, isostatic rebound and sedimentary compaction for each backstripping step in order to reconstruct the subsidence history in the region. This method allows determination of the amount of tectonic subsidence or uplifting as a consequence of the regional stress field acting on the basin and was followed by a correlation with periods of active salt movement. In general, the successions above the highly deformed Zechstein evaporites reveal a thickening trend towards the Glückstadt Graben, which also experienced the highest amount of tectonic subsidence during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Two periods of accelerating salt movement in the area has been correlated with the E–W directed extension during the Late Triassic–Early Jurassic and later by the Late Cretaceous–Early Cenozoic inversion, suggesting that the regional stress field plays a key role in halokinesis. The final part of this work dealt with a neotectonic forward modelling in an attempt to predict the future topography when the system is in a tectonic equilibrium. The result reveals that many of the salt structures in the region are still active and that future coastline will run with a WNW–ESE trend, arguing that the compressional stresses related to the Alpine collision are the prime factor for the present-day landscape evolution.     

Long‐distance fluid migration defines the diagenetic history of unique Ediacaran sediments in the East European Craton

The diagenetic history of the Ediacaran sedimentary rocks in the East European Craton (EEC) over the area extending from Arkhangelsk (Russia) in the north to Podolia (Ukraine) in the south was revealed by means of the XRD characterization and K–Ar dating of clay fractions, mudstone porosity measurements and organic geochemistry investigations. Mudstone porosity measurements produced direct evidence of shallow maximum burial of the Ediacaran sediments on the craton (Russia, Lithuania, Belarus, Volyn), not exceeding 1.5 km, and much deeper burial at the cratonic margin, in Podolia and Poland. In general, illitization of smectite and biomarker indices indicates more advanced diagenesis at the cratonic margin. K–Ar dating of authigenic illite–smectite and aluminoceladonite revealed the Palaeozoic age of mineral diagenesis (ca. 450–300 Ma) both on the craton and its margin, with older ages generally observed in the north. When the maximum palaeotemperatures were evaluated from illite–smectite and biomarkers, based on the calibrations from the conventional burial diagenetic sections, a major mismatch was detected for the cratonic area: 100°C–130°C from illite––smectite and tens of ^oC lower from the lipid biomarkers. This diagenetic pattern was interpreted as the result of short‐lasting (in ky scale) pulses of potassium‐bearing hot fluids migrating from the Caledonian and Variscan orogens deep in the craton interior, effectively promoting illitization in porous rocks without altering the organic matter. Analogous short pulses of fluids were responsible for numerous diagenetic phenomena, including Mississippi Valley‐Type ore deposits, in the American Midwest, in front of the Appalachians. K–Ar dating indicates that the entire Proterozoic sedimentary cover of the Great Unconformity on the EEC remained untouched by measureable post‐sedimentary changes until the early Palaeozoic, thus for over 1000 My, which is an unprecedented finding.     

A novel approach to the quantitative interpretation of petrophysical parameters using nano-CT: example of Paleozoic carbonates

The main goal was the analysis of parameters describing the structure of the pore space of carbonate rocks, based on tomographic images. The results of CT images interpretation, made for 17 samples of Paleozoic carbonate rocks were shown. The qualitative and quantitative analysis of a pore system was performed. Objects were clustered according to the pore size. Within the clusters, the geometry parameters were analysed. The following dependences were obtained for carbonate rocks, also for individual clusters (due to the volume): (1) a linear relationship (on a bilogarithmic scale) between the specific surface and the Feret diameter and (2) a strong linear relationship between specific surface area and Feret diameter and average diameter of the objects calculated for the sphere. The results were then combined with available results from standard laboratory tests, including NMR and MICP.     

Magnetic,paleomagnetic and palynologic studies of Paleolithic depositions of the Akhshtyrskaya cave (Russia)

The paper presents the results of experimental rock-magnetic, paleomagnetic and palynologic study of Paleolithic sediments sampled along two profiles in the Akhshtyrskaya cave, situated in the vicinity of Black Sea shore. In the upper part of profiles, some magnetite was observed; in the middle and lower parts, strongly oxidized non-stoichiometric magnetite and hematite prevail. Thin maghemite covers on the surface of fine magnetite grains are present in the majority of specimens. Natural remanence has one characteristic component (CHRM), mostly of chemical origin, although in few specimens containing magnetite it may be sedimentary. Directions of CHRM obtained by standard paleomagnetic methods revealed anomalous pattern only in layer 3/2, which is slightly older than the overlying layer 3/1 whose age was established as (35±2)×10³ years BP by the U-Th method. This suggests that this paleomagnetic anomaly (PMA) can be correlated with Kargapolovo excursion dated on about (45−39)×10³ years BP. In the remaining overlying and underlying layers, directions of CHRM are grouped around the present geomagnetic field. Depth distributions of scalar magnetic parameters generally coincide with the lithological division of the profiles. Palynologic study revealed the presence of 22 pollen zones. Five thermomers separated with colder periods were found in the middle and lower parts of profile. The non-magnetite composition of magnetic fraction of the majority of studied sediments — oxidized nonstoichiometric magnetite and hematite — resulted in the lack of correlations between paleoclimatic and scalar magnetic characteristics.     

The application of well logging and seismic modeling to assess the degree of gas saturation in Miocene strata (Carpathian Foredeep, Poland)

The presence of natural gas in the pore space of reservoir rocks results in a significant decrease in P-wave velocity. Even low gas saturation can generate seismic anomalies (DHI) and false image of gas accumulation of economic importance. This article presents an attempt to evaluate gas saturation from 2D seismic section in the Miocene sandstone strata in the south-eastern part of the Carpathian Foredeep. The ESTYMACJA program and the Biot-Gassmann model were used to study the dependence between elastic parameters and saturating fluids (water and gas) recorded in wells. Series of calculations was carried out using a method of fluid substitution for various gas saturation. The applicability of seismic data for evaluating gas saturation of reservoir beds was assessed with the use of 1D modelling (synthetic seismograms) and 2D modelling (theoretical seismic section) calculated for different gas saturation. The proposed methodology can be used to identify low and high gas-saturated zones and contour the reservoir.     

Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system

Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of observations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal correlates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3–6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions.