Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.     

Assessment of Kalpana-1 Rainfall Product over Indian Meteorological Sub-Divisions During the Summer Monsoon Season

In this paper, Kalpana-1 derived INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) rainfall estimates are compared with two multisatellite rainfall products namely, TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)-3B42 and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and India Meteorological Department (IMD) surface rain gauge (SRG)-based rainfall at meteorological sub-divisional scale over India. The performance of the summer monsoon rainfall of 2013 over Indian meteorological sub-divisions is assessed at different temporal scales. Comparison of daily accumulated rainfall over India from IMSRA shows a linear correlation of 0.72 with TMPA-3B42 and 0.70 with GSMaP estimates. IMSRA is capable to pick up daily rainfall variability over the monsoon trough region as compared to TMPA-3B42 and GSMaP products, but underestimates moderate to heavy rainfall events. Satellite-derived rainfall maps at meteorological sub-divisional scales are in reasonably good agreement with IMD-SRG based rainfall maps with some exceptions. However, IMSRA performs better than GSMaP product at meteorological sub-divisional scale and comparable with TMPA data. All the satellite-derived rainfall products underestimate orographic rainfall along the west coast, the Himalayan foothills and over the northeast India and overestimate rainfall over the southeast peninsular India. Overall results suggest that IMSRA estimates have potential for monsoon rainfall monitoring over the Indian meteorological sub-divisions and can be used for various hydro-meteorological applications.     

Assessing Performance of Tomo-SAR and Backscattering Coefficient for Hemi-Boreal Forest Aboveground Biomass Estimation

Tomo-SAR technique has been used for hemi-boreal forest height and further forest biomass estimation through allometric equation. Backscattering coefficient especially in longer wavelength (L- or P-band) is thought as a useful parameter for hemi-boreal forest biomass retrieval. The aim of this paper is to assess the performance of vertical backscattering power and backscattering coefficient for hemi-boreal forest aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation with airborne P-band data. The test site locates in southern Sweden called Remningstorp test site, and the in-situ forest AGB ranges from 14 t/ha to 245 t/ha at stand level. Multi-baseline P-band Pol-InSAR data in repeat-path mode collected during March and May in 2007 at Remningstorp test site was used. We found that the correlation coefficient (R) between backscattering coefficient of P-band HH polarization and the in-situ forest biomass reached 0.87. The R for P-band VV backscattering power at 5 m is 0.71 and 10 m is 0.72. Backscattering coefficient in HH polarization and vertical backscattering power at 5 m and 10 m were applied to construct a model for hemi-boreal forest AGB estimation by backward step-wise regression and cross-validation approach. The results showed that the estimated forest AGB ranges from 19 to 240 t/ha, and the constructed model obtained a higher R and smaller RMSE, the value of R is 0.91, RMSE is 30.43 t/ha at Remningstorp test site.     

Practical Application of 3D Visualization Using Geotechnical Database: A Case Study Karsiyaka (Izmir) Settlement Area (Turkey)

3D geographic information system software’s (GIS) are widely used in engineering geology applications. This study was performed in the Karsiyaka settlement area for the preparation of engineering geological maps and evaluation of geological structures. Firstly, topographic maps digitized with Arcview GIS 3.2. Engineering geological maps were prepared using site works and digitized with the Rockworks 2006 programme and later stored in GIS-based computer systems. 3D modelling analysis and assessment using a geotechnical database is important to assist decision-making for land use and metro subway line planning, construction site selection, selection of water sources, etc. In this respect, the sub-surface of the study area is fully 3D visualized and useful soil class zonation maps for different depths maps are performed to be used in further studies. At last, after research at this site, the construction applications of Karsiyaka have multiplied.     

Estimation of Above Ground Biomass for Central Indian Deciduous Forests Using ALOS PALSAR L-Band Data

Reliable and accurate estimates of tropical forest above ground biomass (AGB) are important to reduce uncertainties in carbon budgeting. In the present study we estimated AGB of central Indian deciduous forests of Madhya Pradesh (M.P.) state, India, using Advanced Land Observing Satellite – Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (ALOS-PALSAR) L-band data of year 2010 in conjunction with field based AGB estimates using empirical models. Digital numbers of gridded 1?×?1° dual polarization (HH & HV) PALSAR mosaics for the study area were converted to normalized radar cross section (sigma naught - σ⁰). A total of 415 sampling plots (0.1 ha) data collected over the study area during 2009–10 was used in the present study. Plot-level AGB estimates using volume equations representative to the study area were computed using field inventory data. The plot-level AGB estimates were empirically modeled with the PALSAR backscatter information in HH, HV and their ratios from different forest types of the study area. The HV backscatter information showed better relation with field based AGB estimates with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.509 which was used to estimate spatial AGB of the study area. Results suggested a total AGB of 367.4 Mt for forests of M.P. state. Further, validation of the model was carried out using observed vs. predicted AGB estimates, which suggested a root mean square error (RMSE) of ±19.32 t/ha. The model reported robust and defensible relation for observed vs. predicted AGB values of the study area.     

TEC variation over an equatorial and anomaly crest region in India during 2012 and 2013

Using the global positioning system (GPS) measurements, the total electron content (TEC) at station Bangalore (13.02°N, 77.57°E geographic; 04.44°N, 150.84°E geomagnetic), lying at the equatorial region, and station Lucknow (26.91°N, 80.95°E geographic; 17.96°N, 155.24°E geomagnetic), lying at equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) crest region, have been estimated for the year 2012–2013. In order to evaluate the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model regarding simulation/modeling of ionospheric studies specially at equatorial and EIA crest regions, we have compared the TEC derived from the recent version of the IRI-2012 model and the older IRI-2007 with its three topside options, namely IRI-NeQuick (IRI-NeQ), IRI-2001, and IRI01-corr, with that of GPS-TEC over Bangalore and Lucknow. For the EIA station Lucknow, the IRI-2012 model with IRI-NeQ and IRI01-corr topside is found in good agreement with GPS-TEC during summer and equinox season, while the IRI-2012 model for all three topside options significantly overestimates the GPS-TEC during winter season. The IRI-2001 topside overestimates the GPS-TEC over both the stations during all seasons. The anomalous difference between the IRI-2012 model prediction and ground-based GPS-TEC in daytime hours during the winter season observed at Lucknow could be attributed to discrepancies in the slab thickness predicted by the model, which is more during the winter season as compared to summer and equinox. These large discrepancies in the slab thickness predicted by the IRI-2012 as well as the IRI-2007 model during the winter season have been supported by using the foF2 data from Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate radio occultation-based measurements. We also observed that the discrepancies in the recent IRI-2012 model with respect to GPS-TEC are found to be slightly larger than those with the older IRI-2007 model over the EIA region Lucknow. However, over the equatorial region Bangalore, the discrepancy with the older model IRI-2007 was found to be larger than with the recent IRI-2012 model. This suggests that the performance of the IRI-2012 model is poorer than the IRI-2007 model at the EIA region while better at equatorial region, and that further improvements in the IRI-2012 models are required particularly in the low-latitude and EIA regions. The GPS-TEC showed disappearance of the winter anomaly during 2012–2013, while the IRI model failed to predict the disappearance of winter anomaly.     

Long-term soil moisture dynamics derived from GNSS interferometric reflectometry: a case study for Sutherland,South Africa

Soil moisture is a geophysical key observable for predicting floods and droughts, modeling weather and climate and optimizing agricultural management. Currently available in situ observations are limited to small sampling volumes and restricted number of sites, whereas measurements from satellites lack spatial resolution. Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers can be used to estimate soil moisture time series at an intermediate scale of about 1000 m². In this study, GNSS signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data at the station Sutherland, South Africa, are used to estimate soil moisture variations during 2008–2014. The results capture the wetting and drying cycles in response to rainfall. The GNSS Volumetric Water Content (VWC) is highly correlated (r ² = 0.8) with in situ observations by time-domain reflectometry sensors and is accurate to 0.05 m³/m³. The soil moisture estimates derived from the SNR of the L1 and L2P signals compared to the L2C show small differences with a RMSE of 0.03 m³/m³. A reduction in the SNR sampling rate from 1 to 30 s has very little impact on the accuracy of the soil moisture estimates (RMSE of the VWC difference 1–30 s is 0.01 m³/m³). The results show that the existing data of the global tracking network with continuous observations of the L1 and L2P signals with a 30-s sampling rate over the last two decades can provide valuable complementary soil moisture observations worldwide.     

Using a regional numerical weather prediction model for GNSS positioning over Brazil

The global navigation satellite system (GNSS) can provide centimeter positioning accuracy at low costs. However, in order to obtain the desired high accuracy, it is necessary to use high-quality atmospheric models. We focus on the troposphere, which is an important topic of research in Brazil where the tropospheric characteristics are unique, both spatially and temporally. There are dry regions, which lie mainly in the central part of the country. However, the most interesting area for the investigation of tropospheric models is the wet region which is located in the Amazon forest. This region substantially affects the variability of humidity over other regions of Brazil. It provides a large quantity of water vapor through the humidity convergence zone, especially for the southeast region. The interconnection and large fluxes of water vapor can generate serious deficiencies in tropospheric modeling. The CPTEC/INPE (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/Brazilian Institute for Space Research) has been providing since July 2012 a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for South America, known as Eta. It has yield excellent results in weather prediction but has not been used in GNSS positioning. This NWP model was evaluated in precise point positioning (PPP) and network-based positioning. Concerning PPP, the best positioning results were obtained for the station SAGA, located in Amazon region. Using the NWP model, the 3D RMS are less than 10 cm for all 24 h of data, whereas the values reach approximately 60 cm for the Hopfield model. For network-based positioning, the best results were obtained mainly when the tropospheric characteristics are critical, in which case an improvement of up to 7.2 % was obtained in 3D RMS using NWP models.     

Generating GPS satellite fractional cycle bias for ambiguity-fixed precise point positioning

With the development of precise point positioning (PPP), the School of Geodesy and Geomatics (SGG) at Wuhan University is now routinely producing GPS satellite fractional cycle bias (FCB) products with open access for worldwide PPP users to conduct ambiguity-fixed PPP solution. We provide a brief theoretical background of PPP and present the strategies and models to compute the FCB products. The practical realization of the two-step (wide-lane and narrow-lane) FCB estimation scheme is described in detail. With GPS measurements taken in various situations, i.e., static, dynamic, and on low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, the quality of FCB estimation and the effectiveness of PPP ambiguity resolution (AR) are evaluated. The comparison with CNES FCBs indicated that our FCBs had a good consistency with the CNES ones. For wide-lane FCB, almost all the differences of the two products were within ±0.05 cycles. For narrow-lane FCB, 87.8 % of the differences were located between ±0.05 cycles, and 97.4 % of them were located between ±0.075 cycles. The experimental results showed that, compared with conventional ambiguity-float PPP, the averaged position RMS of static PPP can be improved from (3.6, 1.4, 3.6) to (2.0, 1.0, 2.7) centimeters for ambiguity-fixed PPP. The average accuracy improvement in the east, north, and up components reached 44.4, 28.6, and 25.0 %, respectively. A kinematic, ambiguity-fixed PPP test with observation of 80 min achieved a position accuracy of better than 5 cm at the one-sigma level in all three coordinate components. Compared with the results of ambiguity-float, kinematic PPP, the positioning biases of ambiguity-fixed PPP were improved by about 78.2, 20.8, and 65.1 % in east, north, and up. The RMS of LEO PPP test was improved by about 23.0, 37.0, and 43.0 % for GRACE-A and GRACE-B in radial, tangential, and normal directions when AR was applied to the same data set. These results demonstrated that the SGG FCB products can be produced with high quality for users anywhere around the world to carry out ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions.     

A closed-loop EKF and multi-failure diagnosis approach for cooperative GNSS positioning

Current cooperative positioning with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) for connected vehicle application mainly uses pseudorange measurements. However, the positioning accuracy offered cannot meet the requirements for lane-level positioning, collision avoidance and future automatic driving, which needs real-time positioning accuracy of better than 0.5 m. Furthermore, there is an apparent lack of research into the integrity issue for these new applications under emerging driverless vehicle applications. In order to overcome those problems, a new extended Kalman filter (EKF) and a multi-failure diagnosis algorithm are developed to process both GNSS pseudorange and carrier phase measurements. We first introduce a new closed-loop EKF with partial ambiguity resolution as feedback to address the low accuracy issue. Then a multi-failure diagnosis algorithm is proposed to improve integrity and reliability. The core of this new algorithm includes using Carrier phase-based Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring method for failure detection, and the double extended w test detectors to identify failure. A cooperative positioning experiment was carried out to validate the proposed method. The results show that the proposed closed-loop EKF can provide highly accurate positioning, and the multi-failure diagnosis method is effective in detecting and identifying failures for both code and carrier phase measurements.