The mesoscale balance and imbalance and the corresponding potential vorticity inversion from the view of helicity

The static balance and the geostrophic balance are the common balances in meteorology.All the synoptic systems and most of the mesoscale systems satisfy the above two balances.However,due to the strong convection and non-geostrophic feature,many mesoscale systems usually present as static imbalance,and the quasi-geostrophic approximation is no longer attainable.This paper tried to find out a kind of balance that exists for mesoscale convective system.To do this,the concrete mathematics definitions for balance and imbalance equations were defined.Then,it is proposed that the new balance equation should include the divergence,vorticity,and vertical motion simultaneously,and the helicity equation was a good choice for the basis.Finally,the mesoscale balance and imbalance equations were constructed,as well as a new balance model that was based on the helicity,horizontal divergence,vertical vorticity,continuity,and thermal dynamic equations under same approximations.Moreover,the corresponding potential vorticity(PV)inversion technique was introduced.It was pointed out that by using the PV conservation and the potential temperature conservation,the flows of the mesoscale balance model can be deduced,and their comparison with the real fields would give the degree of the imbalance.     

Characteristics of the two active stages of lightning activity in two hailstorms

Two hailstorms that occurred in Beijing and Tianjin, respectively, are investigated, based mainly on the total lightning data observed by the System d’Alerte Fondre par Interferometric Radioelecctrique (SAFIR3000), the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data of a CG lightning location system, and the echo data of a Doppler radar. Both hailstorms exhibited two lightning frequency peaks: the first was before the hailfall and the second was after the hailfall, with the second peak greater than the first. The dominant polarity of the CG lightning was positive in the stage around the first frequency peak, but changed to negative in the stage around the second frequency peak. The evolution of radar echoes and the height distribution of lightning radiation sources are explored, revealing that both hailstorms had stronger convection and the main positive charge occurred at mid levels during the stage around the first frequency peak. However, whilst the Beijing hailstorm experienced the enhancement of convection, with the main positive charge at upper levels around the second frequency peak, the Tianjin hailstorm generated its second frequency peak during the period when the convection kept weakening and the main positive charge dropped to mid–lower levels. Through evaluation of the radar parameters, we investigate the mechanisms responsible for the second stage of active lightning discharge. Furthermore, the lightning activity exhibited a close relationship with radar echo parameters and hailfall. Lightning jump signals were found before the hailfall and were associated with the change ratio of the 40-dBZ echo volume above the ?15°C level, which demonstrates the application value of lightning data in severe weather warning.     

Retrieval of atmospheric temperature and moisture vertical profiles from satellite Advanced Infrared Sounder radiances with a new regularization parameter selecting method

Considering the characteristics of nonlinear problems, a new method based on the L-curve method and including the concept of entropy was designed to select the regularization parameter in the one-dimensional variational analysis-based sounding retrieval method. In the first iteration, this method uses an empirical regularization parameter derived by minimizing the entropy of variables. During subsequent iterations, it uses the L-curve method to select the regularization parameter in the vicinity of the regularization parameter selected in the last iteration. The new method was employed to select the regularization parameter in retrieving atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder radiance measurements selected from the first day of each month in 2008. The results show that compared with the original L-curve method, the new method yields 5.5% and 2.5% improvements on temperature and relative humidity profiles, respectively. Compared with the discrepancy principle method, the improvements on temperature and relative humidity profiles are 1.6% and 2.0%, respectively.     

An algorithm to retrieve precipitation with synthetic aperture radar

This paper presents a new type of rainfall retrieval algorithm, called the model-oriented statistical and Volterra integration. It is a combination of the model-oriented statistical (MOS) and Volterra integral equation (VIE) approaches. The steps involved in this new algorithm can be briefly illustrated as follows. Firstly, information such as the start point and width of the rain is obtained through pre-analysis of the data received by synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Secondly, the VIE retrieval algorithm is employed over a short distance to obtain information on the shape of the rain. Finally, the rain rate can be calculated by using the MOS retrieval algorithm. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is effective and simple, and can lead to time savings of nearly 50% compared with MOS. An example of application of SAR data is also discussed, involving the retrieval of precipitation information over the South China Sea.     

Factors controlling the interannual variations of MJO intensity

The interannual variations of intensity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter are investigated by using the observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reanalysis data of ECMWF and NCEP. The standard deviation of 20-80-day filtered OLR anomaly is used to measure the MJO intensity. The dominant spatial structure of the interannual variability is revealed by an EOF analysis of the MJO intensity field. It is found that the leading mode is associated with eastern Pacific type ENSO, whereas the second mode is related to central Pacific type ENSO. A simple atmospheric model is used to investigate the relative roles of background moisture and wind changes in affecting the overall strength of MJO. The numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture effect is dominant while the background wind change has a minor effect.     

气候模式中云的垂直重叠及其辐射传输问题研究进展

概述了全球气候模式中云的垂直重叠的处理方法及其辐射物理过程的最新研究进展。从云垂直重叠模型的构造、模型在气候模式中的实现方式,得到与观测一致的云重叠结构所采用的数据和方法、重叠云的辐射传输等方面,给出了针对这一国际研究难点问题的最新研究进展。关于气候模式中云的垂直重叠问题的研究至今已取得了许多成果,表现在:重叠模型上有了更为科学的描述形式(如指数衰减重叠);重叠云的辐射传输也有了更快速的处理方法(如蒙特卡洛独立柱近似)并被广泛应用;连续的三维云遥感观测(如CloudSat/CALIPSO)和云分辨尺度的三维云模式的发展为在气候模式中精确描述云的垂直结构提供了丰富的观测资料和模式数据。但是,气候模式中现有的云重叠结构处理及其辐射传输方法还远不够完善,仍然存在很多没有解决的问题需要在未来进行探索。     

Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during Late Summer in Weak La Nia Years: Contrast between 1981 and 2013

Both 1981 and 2013 were weak La Niña years with a similar sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical Pacific, yet the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during August exhibited an opposite anomaly in the two years. A comparison indicates that, in the absence of a strong SST anomaly in the tropics, the cold advection from Eurasian high latitudes and the convection of the western Pacific warm pool play important roles in influencing the strength and position of the WPSH in August. In August 1981, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height was characterized by a meridional circulation with a strong ridge in the Ural Mountains and a deep trough in Siberia, which provided favorable conditions for cold air invading into the lower latitudes. Accordingly, the geopotential height to the north of the WPSH was reduced by the cold advection anomaly from high latitudes, resulting in an eastward retreat of the WPSH. Moreover, an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the subtropical western Pacific, excited by enhanced warm pool convection, also contributed to the eastward retreat of the WPSH. By contrast, the influence from high latitudes was relatively weak in August 2013 due to a zonal circulation pattern over Eurasia, and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation induced by suppressed warm pool convection also facilitated the westward extension of the WPSH. Therefore, the combined effects of the high latitude and tropical circulations may contribute a persistent anomaly of the WPSH in late summer, despite the tropical SST anomaly being weak.     

Recent significant tornadoes in China

正1.Introduction Compared with the United States,whose annual number of tornadoes can exceed 1000,the average number of tornadoes per year in China over the past half a century is estimated to be fewer than 100(Fan and Yu,2015),even though both countries are located in a similar latitudinal zone of the Northern Hemisphere.The annual average recorded number of F1(Fujita scale)or EF1(enhanced Fujita scale)intensity or higher tornadoes in China between 1961 and 2010 is about     

A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.     

Erratum to: Climate change projections over India by a downscaling approach using PRECIS

The author “Bhaski Bhaskaran” and his affiliation “Fujitsu Laboratory of Europe, Middlesex, UK” should be replaced by “Balakrishnan Bhaskaran”, “Fujitsu Laboratories of Europe Limited, Hayes Park, Middlesex, UK”, respectively.The corrected name and affiliation are shown in this erratum.