A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2 °C, followed by stabilisation to 4 °C.     

Tropical synoptic-scale wave disturbances over the western Pacific simulated by a global cloud-system resolving model

Lower-tropospheric tropical synoptic-scale disturbances (TSDs) are associated with severe weather systems in the Asian Monsoon region. Therefore, exact prediction of the development and behavior of TSDs using atmospheric general circulation models is expected to improve weather forecasting for this region. Recent state-of-the art global cloud-system resolving modeling approaches using a Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) may improve representation of TSDs. This study evaluates TSDs over the western Pacific in output from an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-like control experiment using NICAM. Data analysis compared the simulated and observed fields. NICAM successfully simulates the average activity, three-dimensional structures, and characteristics of the TSDs during the Northern summer. The variance statistics and spectral analysis showed that the average activity of the simulated TSDs over the western Pacific during Northern summer broadly captures that of observations. The composite analysis revealed that the structures of the simulated TSDs resemble the observed TSDs to a large degree. The simulated TSDs exhibited a typical southeast- to northwest-oriented wave-train pattern that propagates northwestward from near the equator around 150 ^° E toward the southern coast of China. However, the location of the simulated wave train and wave activity center was displaced northward by approximately a few degrees of latitude from that in the observation. This displacement can be attributed to the structure and strength of the background basic flow in the simulated fields. Better representation of the background basic states is required for more successful simulation of TSDs.     

Stratigraphy and correlation of Mesoproterozoic rocks associated with Mohar cauldron,Shivpuri district,Madhya Pradesh

A circular structure, termed as cauldron of volcanic origin, was located near Mohar village in Shivpuri district (M.P.) in the year 2000. Subsequently, the same structure was called as Dhala structure of impact origin. There may be debate over the origin and evolution of this circular structure, but it is characterized by a unique lithological set-up within the Bundelkhand craton. The circular structure is defined by annular disposition of igneous and sedimentary rocks. This includes a set of felsic volcanic rocks and associated breccias named as Mohar Formation, exposed in the outer rim of the circular structure. The inner part of the circular structure has sedimentary sequence, termed as Dhala Formation.The field relations indicate that the Mohar and Dhala foarmations are younger than Bundelkhand granitoid complex but older than Kaimur Group. This period in Indian stratigraphy corresponds to Semri Group which consists of Porcellanite Formation, the rocks of which have formed due to deposition of volcanic ash.The geochronological data and field relations between different litho-units indicate that the Mohar volcanism which generated large volume of volcanic ash was a possible source for the formation of Porcellanite Formation. The deposition of sedimentary sequence in main Vindhyan basin was continued, whereas the volcanic activity in Mohar area continued till H ≈ 1.0 Ga. Since, acid volcanic activity has been reported in different parts of the world at H ≈ 1.0 Ga., it is possible that the Mohar acid volcanic activity is not an isolated event; instead it may be a part of global volcanic activities around H ≈ 1.0 Ga.