New data on mammoth fauna mammals in the central Lena River basin (Yakutia,Lenskie Stolby National Nature Park and adjacent areas)

This paper considers the data on new findings of mammoth fauna remains in the Middle Lena basin used to specify the species composition of large Late Neopleistocene mammals represented by eleven species. The obtained range of radiocarbon dates made it possible to state that mass burials of Pleistocene mammal remains were formed in the region during the Karginsk Interstadial (24 000–55 000 years ago).     

Double trouble: subsidence and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> respiration due to 1,000 years of Dutch coastal peatlands cultivation

Coastal plains are amongst the most densely populated areas in the world. Many coastal peatlands are drained to create arable land. This is not without consequences; physical compaction of peat and its degradation by oxidation lead to subsidence, and oxidation also leads to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂). This study complements existing studies by quantifying total land subsidence and associated CO₂ respiration over the past millennium in the Dutch coastal peatlands, to gain insight into the consequences of cultivating coastal peatlands over longer timescales. Results show that the peat volume loss was 19.8 km³, which lowered the Dutch coastal plain by 1.9 m on average, bringing most of it below sea level. At least 66 % of the volume reduction is the result of drainage, and 34 % was caused by the excavation and subsequent combustion of peat. The associated CO₂ respiration is equivalent to a global atmospheric CO₂ concentration increase of ~0.39 ppmv. Cultivation of coastal peatlands can turn a carbon sink into a carbon source. If the path taken by the Dutch would be followed worldwide, there will be double trouble: globally significant carbon emissions and increased flood risk in a globally important human habitat. The effects would be larger than the historic ones because most of the cumulative Dutch subsidence and peat loss was accomplished with much less efficient techniques than those available now.     

Determination of lower and upper bounds of predicted production from history-matched models

We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to minimize the mismatch between predicted and observed production data through adjusting the grid block permeability values of the model. 2) performing two optimization exercises to minimize and maximize an economic objective over the remaining field life, for a fixed production strategy, by manipulating the same grid block permeabilities, however without significantly changing the mismatch obtained under step 1. This is accomplished through a hierarchical optimization procedure that limits the solution space of a secondary optimization problem to the (approximate) null space of the primary optimization problem. We applied this procedure to two different reservoir models. We performed a history match based on synthetic data, starting from a uniform prior and using a gradient-based minimization procedure. After history matching, minimization and maximization of the net present value (NPV), using a fixed control strategy, were executed as secondary optimization problems by changing the model parameters while staying close to the null space of the primary optimization problem. In other words, we optimized the secondary objective functions, while requiring that optimality of the primary objective (a good history match) was preserved. This method therefore provides a way to quantify the economic consequences of the well-known problem that history matching is a strongly ill-posed problem. We also investigated how this method can be used as a means to assess the cost-effectiveness of acquiring different data types to reduce the uncertainty in the expected NPV.     

The Influence of Bioturbation on Iron and Sulphur Cycling in Marine Sediments: A Model Analysis

The geochemical cycles of iron and sulphur in marine sediments are strongly intertwined and give rise to a complex network of redox and precipitation reactions. Bioturbation refers to all modes of transport of particles and solutes induced by larger organisms, and in the present-day seafloor, bioturbation is one of the most important factors controlling the biogeochemical cycling of iron and sulphur. To better understand how bioturbation controls Fe and S cycling, we developed reactive transport model of a coastal sediment impacted by faunal activity. Subsequently, we performed a model sensitivity analysis, separately investigating the two different transport modes of bioturbation, i.e. bio-mixing (solid particle transport) and bio-irrigation (enhanced solute transport). This analysis reveals that bio-mixing and bio-irrigation have distinct—and largely opposing effects on both the iron and sulphur cycles. Bio-mixing enhances transport between the oxic and suboxic zones, thus promoting the reduction of oxidised species (e.g. iron oxyhydroxides) and the oxidation of reduced species (e.g. iron sulphides). Through the re-oxidation of iron sulphides, bio-mixing strongly enhances the recycling of Fe and S between their reduced and oxidised states. Bio-irrigation on the other hand removes reduced solutes, i.e. ferrous iron and free sulphide, from the sediment pore water. These reduced species are then reoxidised in the overlying water and not recycled within the sediment column, which leads to a decrease in Fe and S recycling. Overall, our results demonstrate that the ecology of the macrofauna (inducing bio-mixing or bio-irrigation, or both) matters when assessing their impact on sediment geochemistry. This finding seems particularly relevant for sedimentary cycling across Cambrian transition, when benthic fauna started colonizing and reworking the seafloor.     

Seasonally and spatially referenced estimates of recreational shore-angling effort,catch composition,catch rates and total catch in the Goukamma Marine Protected Area,South Africa

A roving creel survey of the recreational shore fishery along the 16.4-km coastline in the Goukamma Marine Protected Area on the south coast of South Africa was conducted from 2009 to 2011. Some 838 patrols were stratified equally among months, areas and years, but intentionally biased towards weekends. Angler densities at Buffalo Bay and Groenvlei were 0.59 and 0.28 anglers km?1, respectively. Weekend densities were double to quadruple weekday densities and fishing during winter was more popular than during summer. Area, habitat and distance to access points explained variation in angler densities. Shannon–Wiener diversity in catches declined from 2.18 in an earlier (1993–2002) survey to 1.79. Although the order of species abundance in the catches remained largely unchanged, blacktail Diplodus capensis dominance increased to 57.3% by number, at the expense of galjoen Dichistius capensis. Habitat explained 27% of the variance in catch composition. The catch per unit effort (CPUE) for the top nine species ranged from 0.19 to 6.35 fish 100-h?1. The CPUE of all species, except spotted grunter Pomadasys commersonnii, declined. Blacktail and galjoen CPUE declined by 17% and 77%, respectively. The total catch estimate was 2 986 fish y?1. Transgressions of size limits were common. The results suggest that the fishery is overexploited and that catch rates are declining.     

Precursory slope distress prior to the 2010 Mount Meager landslide,British Columbia

In 2010, the south flank of Mount Meager failed catastrophically, generating the largest (53 ± 3.8 × 10⁶ m³) landslide in Canadian history. We document the slow deformation of the edifice prior to failure using archival historic aerial photographs spanning the period 1948–2006. All photos were processed using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We used the SfM products to produce pre-and post-failure geomorphic maps that document changes in the volcanic edifice and Capricorn Glacier at its base. The photographic dataset shows that the Capricorn Glacier re-advanced from a retracted position in the 1980s then rapidly retreated in the lead-up to the 2010 failure. The dataset also documents 60 years of progressive development of faults, toe bulging, and precursory failures in 1998 and 2009. The 2010 collapse was conditioned by glacial retreat and triggered by hot summer weather that caused ice and snow to melt. Meltwater increased pore water pressures in colluvium and fractured rocks at the base of the slope, causing those materials to mobilize, which in turn triggered several secondary failures structurally controlled by lithology and faults. The landslide retrogressed from the base of the slope to near the peak of Mount Meager involving basement rock and the overlying volcanic sequence. Elsewhere on the flanks of Mount Meager, large fractures have developed in recently deglaciated areas, conditioning these slopes for future collapse. Potential failures in these areas have larger volumes than the 2010 landslide. Anticipated atmospheric warming over the next several decades will cause further loss of snow and glacier ice, likely producing additional slope instability. Satellite- and ground-based monitoring of these slopes can provide advanced warning of future landslides to help reduce risk in populated regions downstream.     

Regional subglacial quarrying and abrasion below hard-bedded palaeo-ice streams crossing the Shield–Palaeozoic boundary of central Canada: the importance of substrate control

Three-dimensional surface visualization models derived from high-resolution LiDAR data provide new information about the type and scale of erosional processes below Late Wisconsin palaeo-ice streams traversing the boundary between Canadian Shield crystalline rocks with offlapping Palaeozoic limestones in central Ontario. The hard bed is directly analogous to that found below ice streams in East Antarctica and East Greenland and provides insight into the effects of abrupt changes in substrate type on subglacial processes. Erosion of hard crystalline Canadian Shield rock was largely ineffectual consisting of areal abrasion of rounded whalebacks and local lee side plucking. In contrast, fast flow over the strike of gently dipping well-bedded and jointed Palaeozoic limestones cut large flow-parallel grooves and ridges akin to mega-scale glacial lineations reflecting intense abrasion below narrow streams of subglacial debris dominated by hard crystalline Shield clasts (erodents). Regionally extensive plucking of structurally weak, well-jointed and bedded limestone produced large volumes of rubbly carbonate debris leaving a 25-km-wide belt of uncontrolled hummocky rubble terrain (long known as the Dummer Moraine in Southern Ontario) some 350 km long and locally as much as 10 m thick. Subglacial plucking and abrasion under fast flowing ice were highly effective in stripping limestone cover rocks from Precambrian basement, and over many glacial cycles, may have played a role in the location and excavation of numerous large and deep lake basins around the Shield–Palaeozoic boundary zone in North America.     

Small shards and long distances — three cryptotephra layers from the Nahe palaeolake including the first discovery of Laacher See Tephra in Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

Investigations of Lateglacial to Early Holocene lake sediments from the Nahe palaeolake (northern Germany) provided a high-resolution palynological record. To increase the temporal resolution of the record a targeted search for cryptotephra was carried out on the basis of pollen stratigraphy. Three cryptotephra horizons were detected and geochemically identified as G10ka series tephra (a Saksunarvatn Ash), Vedde Ash and Laacher See Tephra. Here we present the first geochemically confirmed finding of the ash from the Laacher See Eruption in Schleswig-Holstein—extending the so far detected fallout fan of the eruption further to the north-west. These finds enable direct stratigraphical correlations and underline the potential of the site for further investigations.     

Discriminant Analysis for Compositional Data Incorporating Cell-Wise Uncertainties

Mathematical Geosciences - In the geosciences it is still uncommon to include measurement uncertainties into statistical methods such as discriminant analysis, but, especially for trace elements,...