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51.
Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment 总被引:31,自引:6,他引:31
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of geomorphological expert knowledge in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps, using GIS supported indirect bivariate statistical analysis. For a test area in the Alpago region in Italy a dataset was generated at scale 1:5,000. Detailed geomorphological maps were generated, with legends at different levels of complexity. Other factor maps, that were considered relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, were also collected, such as lithology, structural geology, surficial materials, slope classes, land use, distance from streams, roads and houses. The weights of evidence method was used to generate statistically derived weights for all classes of the factor maps. On the basis of these weights, the most relevant maps were selected for the combination into landslide susceptibility maps. Six different combinations of factor maps were evaluated, with varying geomorphological input. Success rates were used to classify the weight maps into three qualitative landslide susceptibility classes. The resulting six maps were compared with a direct susceptibility map, which was made by direct assignment of susceptibility classes in the field. The analysis indicated that the use of detailed geomorphological information in the bivariate statistical analysis raised the overall accuracy of the final susceptibility map considerably. However, even with the use of a detailed geomorphological factor map, the difference with the separately prepared direct susceptibility map is still significant, due to the generalisations that are inherent to the bivariate statistical analysis technique. 相似文献
52.
53.
Establishing relative and absolute time frameworks for the sedimentary, magmatic, tectonic and gold mineralisation events in the Norseman-Wiluna Belt of the Archean Yilgarn Craton of Western Australia, has long been the main aim of research efforts. Recently published constraints on the timing of sedimentation and absolute granite ages have emphasized the shortcomings of the established rationale used for interpreting the timing of deformation events. In this paper the assumptions underlying this rationale are scrutinized, and it is shown that they are the source of significant misinterpretations. A revised time chart for the deformation events of the belt is established. The first shortening phase to affect the belt, D1, was preceded by an extensional event D1e and accompanied by a change from volcanic-dominated to plutonic-dominated magmatism at approximately 2685–2675 Ma. Later extension (D2e) controlled deposition of the ca 2655 Ma Kurrawang Sequence and was followed by D2, a major shortening event, which folded this sequence. D2 must therefore have started after 2655 Ma—at least 20 Ma later than previously thought and after the voluminous 2670–2655 Ma high-Ca granite intrusion. Younger transcurrent deformation, D3–D4, waned at around 2630 Ma, suggesting that the crustal shortening deformation cycle D2–D4 lasted approximately 20–30 Ma, contemporaneous with low-volume 2650–2630 Ma low-Ca granites and alkaline intrusions. Time constraints on gold deposits suggest a late mineralisation event between 2640–2630 Ma. Thus, D2–D4 deformation cycle and late felsic magmatism define a 20–30 Ma long tectonothermal event, which culminated with gold mineralisation. The finding that D2 folding took place after voluminous high-Ca granite intrusion led to research into the role of competent bodies during folding by means of numerical models. Results suggest that buoyancy-driven doming of pre-tectonic competent bodies trigger growth of antiforms, whereas non-buoyant, competent granite bodies trigger growth of synforms. The conspicuous presence of pre-folding granites in the cores of anticlines may be a result from active buoyancy doming during folding. 相似文献
54.
Africa’s landscape is dominated by a manifold of second-order epeirogenic structures superimposed on a first-order bimodal topography. Bivariate regression analysis of Africa’s surface topography shows that this is a complexly folded surface with regionally elevated areas in southern and eastern Africa, and a topographically low northern and western Africa. The apparent spatial relationships between these features are analysed using anomaly correlation between surface topography and free-air gravity anomalies. Occurrences of positively correlated features between gravity and topography in Africa are found to be limited to second-order epeirogenic features. Geophysical modelling and geologic evidence indicate that Africa’s bimodal topography is genetically distinct from these second-order features, and linked to sources as deep as the sublithospheric mantle. The age, measured and modelled elevation of the bimodal topography require that topographic uplift of south-central Africa be episodic. We infer from our findings together with relative sea-level changes, that the near-bimodality of Africa’s topography is an ancient feature inherited at least from upper Paleozoic times. Our reconstructed paleotopography suggests that Africa was largely a low-lying continent dominated by its cratons, and that basement distribution disregards the present-day uplift patterns of Africa. 相似文献
55.
A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and
concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term
response). The mass balance is modelled by the degree-day method and the energy-balance method. The lithosphere is considered
to respond isostatically to a point load and the time evolution of the bedrock follows from a viscous asthenosphere. According
to the IPCC-IS92a scenario (with constant aerosols after 1990) the Greenland ice-sheet is likely to cause a global sea level
rise of 10.4 cm by 2100 AD. It is shown, however, that the result is sensitive to precise model formulations and that simplifications
as used in the sea-level projection in the IPCC-96 report yield less accurate results. Our model results indicate that, on
a time scale of a hundred years, including the dynamic response of the ice-sheet yields more mass loss than the fixed response
in which changes in geometry are not incorporated. It appears to be important to consider sliding, as well as the fact that
climate sensitivity increases for larger perturbations. Variations in predicted sea-level change on a time scale of hundred
years depend mostly on the initial state of the ice-sheet. On a time scale of a few hundred years, however, the variability
in the predicted melt is dominated by the variability in the climate scenarios.
Received: 21 August 1996/Accepted: 12 May 1997 相似文献
56.
Geologie en Mijnbouw - 相似文献
57.
58.
The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River. 相似文献
59.
Assuming a radially stratified Newtonian mantle in a steady-state approximation, we demonstrate that the permeability of a viscosity interface at 660-km depth strongly depends on the wavelength of buoyancy forces driving the flow. The flow induced by long-wavelength loads penetrates through the boundary freely even if the viscosity increases by two orders. In contrast, the boundary is practically impermeable for short-wavelength loads located in the upper mantle. Thus, a stepwise increase of viscosity is a significant obstacle for small descending features in the upper mantle, but huge upper mantle downwellings, or upwellings formed in the-lower mantle can overcome it easily. This indicates that certain care is necessary in interpreting the seismic structure of the mantle by means of flow models. The global tomographic image includes only the first few degrees of the harmonic series and, consequently, its interpretation in terms of a present-day flow field results in a predominantly whole-mantle circulation even for extreme viscosity contrasts. 相似文献
60.
A. Douaik M. van Meirvenne T. Tóth M. Serre 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):219-227
The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (ECa) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to ECa, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas. 相似文献