Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of geomorphological expert knowledge in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps, using GIS supported indirect bivariate statistical analysis. For a test area in the Alpago region in Italy a dataset was generated at scale 1:5,000. Detailed geomorphological maps were generated, with legends at different levels of complexity. Other factor maps, that were considered relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, were also collected, such as lithology, structural geology, surficial materials, slope classes, land use, distance from streams, roads and houses. The weights of evidence method was used to generate statistically derived weights for all classes of the factor maps. On the basis of these weights, the most relevant maps were selected for the combination into landslide susceptibility maps. Six different combinations of factor maps were evaluated, with varying geomorphological input. Success rates were used to classify the weight maps into three qualitative landslide susceptibility classes. The resulting six maps were compared with a direct susceptibility map, which was made by direct assignment of susceptibility classes in the field. The analysis indicated that the use of detailed geomorphological information in the bivariate statistical analysis raised the overall accuracy of the final susceptibility map considerably. However, even with the use of a detailed geomorphological factor map, the difference with the separately prepared direct susceptibility map is still significant, due to the generalisations that are inherent to the bivariate statistical analysis technique.     

Old inherited origin for the present near-bimodal topography of Africa

Africa’s landscape is dominated by a manifold of second-order epeirogenic structures superimposed on a first-order bimodal topography. Bivariate regression analysis of Africa’s surface topography shows that this is a complexly folded surface with regionally elevated areas in southern and eastern Africa, and a topographically low northern and western Africa. The apparent spatial relationships between these features are analysed using anomaly correlation between surface topography and free-air gravity anomalies. Occurrences of positively correlated features between gravity and topography in Africa are found to be limited to second-order epeirogenic features. Geophysical modelling and geologic evidence indicate that Africa’s bimodal topography is genetically distinct from these second-order features, and linked to sources as deep as the sublithospheric mantle. The age, measured and modelled elevation of the bimodal topography require that topographic uplift of south-central Africa be episodic. We infer from our findings together with relative sea-level changes, that the near-bimodality of Africa’s topography is an ancient feature inherited at least from upper Paleozoic times. Our reconstructed paleotopography suggests that Africa was largely a low-lying continent dominated by its cratons, and that basement distribution disregards the present-day uplift patterns of Africa.     

Modelling the short-term response of the Greenland ice-sheet to global warming

 A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term response). The mass balance is modelled by the degree-day method and the energy-balance method. The lithosphere is considered to respond isostatically to a point load and the time evolution of the bedrock follows from a viscous asthenosphere. According to the IPCC-IS92a scenario (with constant aerosols after 1990) the Greenland ice-sheet is likely to cause a global sea level rise of 10.4 cm by 2100 AD. It is shown, however, that the result is sensitive to precise model formulations and that simplifications as used in the sea-level projection in the IPCC-96 report yield less accurate results. Our model results indicate that, on a time scale of a hundred years, including the dynamic response of the ice-sheet yields more mass loss than the fixed response in which changes in geometry are not incorporated. It appears to be important to consider sliding, as well as the fact that climate sensitivity increases for larger perturbations. Variations in predicted sea-level change on a time scale of hundred years depend mostly on the initial state of the ice-sheet. On a time scale of a few hundred years, however, the variability in the predicted melt is dominated by the variability in the climate scenarios. Received: 21 August 1996/Accepted: 12 May 1997     

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

The lateglacial Quercus expansion in the southern European Alps: rapid vegetation response to a late Allerød climate warming?

A pollen‐inferred vegetation shift, from pioneer birch–pine woodland to mixed pine–summergreen oak forests, in the southern Alpine forelands, is commonly attributed to a centennial‐scale warming that occurred between the Gerzensee Oscillation (GO) and the Younger Dryas. Two microtephra layers bracketing the Younger Dryas onset (the Laacher See Tephra and the Vedde Ash) improve the chronology at Lago Piccolo di Avigliana (northern Italy) and allowed accurate correlation with Central European records where the GO is clearly detected. We used pollen percentages, pollen accumulation rates (PARs) and plant macrofossils to assess the population dynamics of Quercus, and leaf‐cuticle analysis for a better taxonomic identification of Quercus. Our results indicate that the species that was locally present was probably Quercus robur. PARs suggest that the population expansion started as early as the Bølling and followed an exponential increase through time. We attribute this gradual shift to increasing summer temperatures and longer growing seasons which contrast with a gradually decreasing temperature trend as recorded in Greenland ice cores and in Central Europe. Breaks or set‐backs in the PAR record may indicate the biotic response to minor Lateglacial cooling events of different life‐history stages in the Quercus population. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Dynamics of Small Postglacial Lake Basins and the Nature of Their Archaeological Record: A Case Study of the Middle Palaeolithic Site Neumark‐Nord 2, Germany

Due to favorable conditions of preservation, sedimentary basins provide rich records of human behavior and its environmental context. The conditions for the preservation of archaeological material however vary between basin types (large, river‐fed or small, closed basins), while conditions also differ within a particular basin environment. The goal of this paper is to understand how the dynamics of a small postglacial basin such as Neumark‐Nord 2, a context that dominates the Eemian archaeological record, affected the archaeology situated at its basin margin. The approach used here is to correlate the archaeological record with reconstructions of patterns of deposition and the water conditions within the basin, using lithology, micromorphology, pollen, and macroremains from a transect running from the basin center to the margin. The results show that (1) find levels were exposed to overland flow‐induced winnowing, which vertically concentrated finds but did not cause significant transport, (2) find levels correspond to phases of increased water presence in the basin, and (3) lateral shifts in hominin activity areas may reflect adjustments in the water level. The research shows the importance of large‐scale archaeological excavations and a multidisciplinary sampling strategy that covers both the basin center and the margins, when studying postglacial basin localities like Neumark‐Nord 2.