20世纪地震预报科学的回顾与展望

在新世纪的到来,对２０世纪的地震研究作一些回顾,对中国几十年的地震预报的道路进行反思,可能是很有意义的,这对我们编制“十五”规划也有借鉴。     

大尺度雁列断层粘滑运动数值模拟

通过ANSYS软件建立二维雁列断层模型,采用粘弹性力学参数,建立摩擦系数接触单元,模拟10万年时间大尺度雁列走滑断层活动（地震相关活动）,分析挤压条件下的断层活动特征,研究结果表明：①断层时空区域不同,所受应力也不同,接近贯通区域重合地区所受应力较大,粘滑运动剧烈,由贯通区域向断层两侧逐渐延伸,所受应力依次减小;②摩擦系数越小,地震发生频率越高,地震运动周期越短,则位错量相对较小,易发生震级较小地震;摩擦系数越大,地震发生频率越低,地震运动周期越长,则位错量相对较大,易发生震级较大地震;③给定的边界挤压速率越大,地震发生频率越高,地震运动周期越短,则位错量增大,易发生震级较大地震。     

四川邛海湖泊沉积物记录的过去30 cal.ka B.P.以来的古气候环境特征

以我国西南地区邛海钻孔沉积物为研究对象,利用高分辨率粒度数据,结合正构烷烃指标特征,探讨了研究区30 cal.ka B.P.以来的植被演化和气候环境变化过程。研究表明,邛海沉积有机质主要来自于外源的高等陆生植物和内源的水生生物（低等菌藻类生物和挺水、沉水和漂浮植物）。沉积物粒度组成及正构烷烃代用指标变化特征表明,邛海地区过去30 cal.ka B.P.以来的气候环境变化过程大致分为4个阶段：1）29.1~23.0 cal.ka B.P.,沉积物中值粒径（Md）均值为22.4 μm,正构烷烃平均碳链长度（ACL值）和陆生植物正构烷烃相对输入量指标（Pwax值）呈高值,指示相对暖湿的气候条件,湖区以草本植物为主;2）23.0~19.0 cal.ka B.P.,沉积物中值粒径明显减小,均值为15.4 μm,同时ACL值、Pwax值为低值,指示温度较低,气候干燥,这一时期植被类型以木本植物为主;3）19.0~11.0 cal.ka B.P.,中值粒径减小,均值为10.4 μm,ACL值总体较低,Pwax值由高转低,研究区气候从由暖湿向冷干转变,木本植物扩张;4）自11.0 cal.ka B.P.以来沉积颗粒表现出"细-粗-细"的变化特点,中值粒径均值为11.5 μm,ACL值、Pwax值由低值先升高后降低,揭示这一时期邛海气候"冷干-暖湿-冷干"的变化过程,湖区经历了草本植物先扩张后收缩的过程。特别的是,邛海沉积物记录的23.0~19.0 cal.ka B.P.、12.8~11.7 cal.ka B.P.和9.0~5.0 cal.ka B.P.这3次典型气候时期,在时间和气候特征上与末次冰盛期（LGM）、新仙女木事件（YD）和全新世气候适宜期（HCO）相符,可能是对西南季风强度变化及地质历史时期典型气候事件的响应。     

3种典型地表风沙流通量廓线研究现状

风沙流研究越来越受到人们的重视,其中风沙流通量廓线研究起着重要作用。本文总结了3种典型地表(流沙地表、草方格地表、戈壁地表)风沙流通量廓线研究现状及存在问题。由于研究方法、研究区域及集沙效率的不同,风沙流通量廓线函数有指数函数、对数函数、幂函数、分段函数等多种,同一问题不同函数模拟结果差异可达到3倍,难以应用于实际。根据研究中存在的问题,提出风沙流通量廓线研究发展趋势。     

Water Temperature Dynamics in a Complex of Reservoirs and Its Effect on the Temperature Patterns of a Mountain River

The article presents the spatial and temporal dynamics of water temperature in two reservoirs on the upper course of the Dunajec River in the Polish Carpathians. It aims at presenting how spatial patterns and time evolution of water temperature in the reservoirs affect the water temperature in the river. The analysis is based on the results of water temperature measurements in hydrometric verticals in two reservoirs as well as in the river upstream and downstream of the reservoirs. The measurements were carried out in 2012 and 2013, in hydrometeorological conditions typical for each season of the year. Based on the measurements, it has been demonstrated that the complex of reservoirs affects the water temperature in the river over the year and the existence of the smaller lower reservoir may attenuate the cooling or heating effect of the main reservoir on the river.     

BRINGING FORWARD OF THE CONCEPT OF COGIS AND ITS ARCHITECUTRE RESEARCH

Based on the analysis of the development of GIS technology and application,this paper brought forward the concept of GoGIS,namely Cooperative GIS ,CoGIS is GIS facing group-users and supporting human-human interaction,which makes it differ from the former GISs,Then,the characteristics of general Computer Spport Cooperative Work (CSCW)applications and the complexity of Geographic Information Science were analyzed,and the conclusion the CoGIS was not a simple GIS layer on CSCW was reached,Further,this paper gaver the hierarchical architecture of CoGIS,and analyzed the coperative platform in detail from the following:1)basic elements;2) collaboration patterns;3) cooperation control mechanism;4) synchronization mechanism;5) security and 6) group communication and so on.With those,the problems about GIS applications are discussed,such as 1)distributed multi-source GIS information and knowledge sharing platform;2)the fusion and visualization of GIS information;3)virtual reality cooperative modeling;4) dymamic simulation;5)expert system and 6) decision-making.Finally,this paper analyzed CoGIS application mode in brief.     

曲流点坝内部剩余油形成与分布规律物理模拟

建立了曲流点坝物理模型,模拟地下曲流点坝储层进行驱替实验。观察注入剂的运动规律,同时,在模型上布置了测量电极,以双电极法测量驱替过程中垂向电阻变化,反映注入剂波及高度的变化规律。分析了侧积泥岩夹层的建筑结构对注入剂在点坝砂体中的流动规律,以及对剩余油的形成分布的影响。通过实验研究证实,在曲流点坝内部,侧积泥岩夹层对注入剂具有强烈的遮挡作用,受其影响形成侧积体差异型剩余油、重力型剩余油以及压力异常型剩余油三种类型剩余油,主要分布在点坝的中上部。在实际生产中,利用水平井钻遇点坝上部进行开采是主要的手段。     

Improved Local Wavenumber Methods in the Interpretation of Potential Field Data

We present two new potential-inversion methods for estimating the depth and the nature (structural index) of the source, which use various combinations of different forms of local wavenumbers and the information about the horizontal location to estimate individually the depth and the nature of a magnetic source. The improved local wavenumber methods only use the horizontal offset and vertical offset of local wavenumbers to estimate the depth and the structural index of the source, so they yield more stable results compared with the results obtained by current methods that require the derivatives of local wavenumbers. Tests conducted with synthetic noise-free and noise-corrupted magnetic data show that the proposed methods can successfully estimate the depth and the nature of the geologic body. However, our methods are sensitive to high-wavenumber noise present in the data, and we reduced the noise effect by upward continuing the noise-corrupted magnetic data. The practical application of the new methods is tested on a real magnetic anomaly over a dike whose source parameters are known and the inversion results are consistent with the true values.     

工程测量数据共享机制研究

北京市测绘设计研究院(简称北京院)是全国最大的城市测绘院,每年约完成5000余件工程测量任务,其对工程测量数据共享的需求具有代表性.在调研北京市测绘设计研究院各部门工程测量数据情况的基础上,首先对院内工程测量数据的现状和共享现状进行了分析,然后分析了共享中存在的问题,并提出了工程测量数据共享机制的建议,供领导在决策过程...     

利用双线偏振雷达分析人工防雹作业效果

以北京市平谷区2011年6月11日防雹作业为例,利用双线偏振雷达资料,选取与作业区条件十分接近的云块为对比区,根据回波移动方向和速度,跟踪分析在不同高度上防雹作业前后云体宏观结构特征和粒子相态等微物理变化过程。作业后云体所呈现特征为:1作业区的云顶高度、强回波中心高度迅速下降,对比区变化不明显;2作业区水平反射率Zh减小,差分反射率Zdr、零相关系数ρhv增大,单位差分传播相移Kdp小范围内波动,对比区Zh、Zdr、Kdp变化不明显;ρhv增大;3作业区对流减弱,高层较大冰雹粒子、大雨滴下沉明显,最终以霰粒子为主;而对比区域则对流仍然旺盛,冰雹粒子有增多趋势。以上特征表明防雹作业可有效抑制冰雹胚胎成长为冰雹的过程,通过偏振雷达观测参量可对防雹作业效果进行较好的验证。