北疆暴雪过程的湿位涡诊断

利用NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,对2009年3月19—20日北疆沿天山一带一次暴雪天气过程进行诊断分析,着重探讨了湿位涡诊断在新疆暴雪预报中的应用。分析表明：暴雪的水汽输送有3个源地,低层负散度、向北倾斜的涡度“上负下正”分布、等θe线的陡立密集带、垂直速度负值区与暴雪落区均有较好的对应关系。暴雪主要发生在MPV1〉0、MPV2绝对值迅速增加且等值线密集分布的区域。MPV1下传增大,大气对流不稳定能量释放,低层MPV2绝对值增大,大气湿斜压性增强,下滑倾斜涡度增长是暴雪形成的重要原因。     

条件非线性最优扰动在可预报性问题研究中的应用

本文总结了近年来条件非线性最优扰动方法的应用研究的主要进展.主要包括四个方面:(1)将条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法拓展到既考虑初始扰动又考虑模式参数扰动,形成了拓展的CNOP方法.拓展的CNOP方法不仅能够应用于研究分别由初始误差和模式参数误差导致的可预报性问题,而且能够用于探讨初始误差和模式参数误差同时存在的情形;(2)将拓展的CNOP方法分别应用于ENSO和黑潮可预报性研究,考察了初始误差和模式参数误差对其可预报性的影响,揭示了初始误差在导致ENSO和黑潮大弯曲路径预报不确定性中的重要作用;(3)考察了阻塞事件发生的最优前期征兆(OPR)以及导致其预报不确定性的最优增长初始误差(OGR),揭示了OPR和OGR空间模态及其演变机制的相似性及其局地性特征;(4)研究了台风预报的目标观测问题,用CNOP方法确定了台风预报的目标观测敏感区,通过观测系统模拟试验(OSSEs)和/或观测系统试验(OSEs),表明了CNOP敏感区在改进台风预报中的有效性.具体地,台风OGR的主要误差分布在某一特定区域,空间分布具有明显的局地性特征,在台风OGR的局地性区域增加观测,有效改进了台风的预报技巧,该区域代表了台风预报的初值敏感区.事实上,上述El Ni(n)o事件、黑潮路径变异以及阻塞事件的OGR的空间分布也具有明显的局地性特征,这些事件的OGR刻画的局地性区域可能也代表了初值敏感区.     

The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on the CNOP and on Its Identified Sensitive Areas for Tropical Cyclone Predictions

In this study,the impacts of horizontal resolution on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and on its identified sensitive areas were investigated for tropical cyclone predictions.Three resolutions,30 km,60 km,and 120 km,were studied for three tropical cyclones,TC Mindulle (2004),TC Meari (2004),and TC Matsa (2005).Results show that CNOP may present different structures with different resolutions,and the major parts of CNOP become increasingly localized with increased horizontal resolution.CNOP produces spiral and baroclinic structures,which partially account for its rapid amplification.The differences in CNOP structures result in different sensitive areas,but there are common areas for the CNOP-identified sensitive areas at various resolutions,and the size of the common areas is different from case to case.Generally,the forecasts benefit more from the reduction of the initial errors in the sensitive areas identified using higher resolutions than those using lower resolutions.However,the largest improvement of the forecast can be obtained at the resolution that is not the highest for some cases.In addition,the sensitive areas identified at lower resolutions are also helpful for improving the forecast with a finer resolution,but the sensitive areas identified at the same resolution as the forecast would be the most beneficial.     

The Roles of Spatial Locations and Patterns of Initial Errors in the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

In this study,a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs),TC Longwang (2005) and TC Sinlaku (2008),to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts.Specifically,three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),first singular vector (FSV),and composite singular vector (CSV) methods.Additionally,random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered.Based on these four types of initial errors and areas,we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors,and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts.Overall,results from the experiments indicate the following:(1) The impact of random errors introduced into the sensitive areas was greater than that of errors themselves fixed in the randomly selected areas.From the perspective of statistical analysis,and by comparison,the impact of random errors introduced into the CNOP target area was greatest.(2) The initial errors with CNOP,CSV,or FSV patterns were likely to grow faster than random errors.(3) The initial errors with CNOP patterns in the CNOP target areas had the greatest impacts on the final verification forecasts.     

基于Erdas Image 9.2 LPS区域网平差处理Spot5卫星影像实现方法

介绍基于LPS的正射影像处理流程,以图文的形式描述区域网平差处理Spot-5卫星影像的具体过程,最后得到正射纠正影像,用于1∶50 000DOM生产。     

高原东侧特大暴雨过程中秦岭山脉的作用

利用中尺度数值模式MM5V3.5对2002年6月8～9日陕西特大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟, 在模拟结果和实况较吻合的情况下, 通过敏感性试验, 研究了秦岭山脉在这次暴雨过程中所起的作用。结果表明, 秦岭山脉在这次暴雨过程中对降水的强度有很大的影响, 即秦岭山脉使陕甘宁边界的长城沿线、 秦岭山脉、 汉江河谷一带降水量增加, 使关中盆地、 陕北南部、 大巴山东南坡降水量减少。进一步研究表明, 秦岭山脉主要是通过形成局地环流, 使气流产生辐合, 大量的水汽和位势不稳定能量在迎风坡堆积, 上升运动加强, 从而使位势不稳定能量得以释放, 触发了对流降水。     

Algorithm Studies on How to Obtain a Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP)

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which is a nonlinear generalization of the linear singular vector (LSV), is applied in important problems of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, including ENSO predictability, targeted observations, and ensemble forecast. In this study, we investigate the computational cost of obtaining the CNOP by several methods. Differences and similarities, in terms of the computational error and cost in obtaining the CNOP, are compared among the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm, the limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm, and the spectral projected gradients (SPG2) algorithm. A theoretical grassland ecosystem model and the classical Lorenz model are used as examples. Numerical results demonstrate that the computational error is acceptable with all three algorithms. The computational cost to obtain the CNOP is reduced by using the SQP algorithm. The experimental results also reveal that the L-BFGS algorithm is the most effective algorithm among the three optimization algorithms for obtaining the CNOP. The numerical results suggest a new approach and algorithm for obtaining the CNOP for a large-scale optimization problem.     

一次强风切变过程的分析及成因讨论

2006年6月21日09:04南京禄口机场监测到较强风切变。龙王山(南京)多普勒天气雷达观测图上显示,此时恰有一直径为50 km的对流云团自西向东经过禄口机场。南京市地面自动气象站的观测也表明,此时在南京地区近地层气流出现急剧变化。利用多普勒天气雷达资料对风暴进行立体结构分析,并结合地面自动气象站资料分析得知,这次过程在3 km以下的低层有水平方向的风切变,在1 km高度处有垂直方向的风切变。从多普勒天气雷达的垂直积分液态含水量产品能够更直接地看到对流云团的发展过程,这有助于预报风切变发生的位置。这次雷暴系统中宏下击暴流引起的高空气流下沉,至地面后向两侧辐散,造成水平方向及垂直方向都有强风切变存在。     

上海气温变化及城市化影响初步分析

为研究在全球变化背景下上海市区气温变化规律和城市化进程对其影响,分析了上海市区气温对全球变暖的响应,对比了市区和郊区气温在不同气候背景下的变化趋势,采用与郊区台站对比法分析了上海市区气温城市化效应,研究了城市化进程与气温各分量长期变化趋势之间的关系,将高空与地面观测资料相结合,定量估算了城市化效应对平均气温的贡献,初步讨论了气温的城市化效应成因。研究结果表明：1873~2004年上海市区年平均气温的长期变化趋势为1.31 ℃/(100 a),在1921~1948年和1979~2004年两个时期增温明显,其中第二段增温强于第一段;与郊区站点相比,市区在降温期内降温最小,增温期内升温幅度最大;城市发展导致市区和郊区气温有显著差别且温差逐年加大,其中平均气温和最低气温在秋季的差别最大,最高气温市区和郊区之间差别在夏季最大;城市化进程加快了地面气温升高的速率,其中以最低气温最为明显;在1980年代城市化效应使上海市区年平均温度平均升高0.4 ℃,在1990年代平均升高1.1 ℃。     

A potentially new type of nonchondritic interplanetary dust particle with hematite,organic carbon,amorphous Na,Ca‐aluminosilicate,and FeO‐spheres

Abstract– We used a combination of different analytical techniques to study particle W7190‐D12 using microinfrared spectroscopy, micro‐Raman spectroscopy, and field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) energy dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy (EDS). The particle consists mainly of hematite (α‐Fe₂O₃) with considerable variations in structural disorder. It further contains amorphous (Na,K)‐bearing Ca,Al‐silicate and organic carbon. Iron‐bearing spherules (<150 nm in diameter) cover the surface of this particle. At local sites of structural disorder at the hematite surface, the hematite spheres were reduced to FeO in the presence of organic carbons forming FeO‐spheres. However, metallic Fe spheres cannot be excluded based on the available data. To the best of our knowledge, this particle is the first detection of such spherules at the surface of a stratospheric dust particle. Although there is no definitive evidence for an extraterrestrial origin of particle W7190‐D12, we suggest that it could be an IDP that had moved away from the asteroid‐forming region of the early solar system into the outer solar system of the accreting Kuiper Belt objects. After it was released from a Jupiter family comet, this particle became part of the zodiacal cloud. Atmospheric entry flash‐heating caused (1) the formation of microenvironments of reduced iron oxide when indigenous carbon materials reacted with hematite covering its surface resulting in the formation of FeO‐spheres and (2) Na‐loss from Na,Al‐plagioclase. The particle of this study, and other similar particles on this collector, may represent a potentially new type of nonchondritic IDPs associated with Jupiter family comets, although an origin in the asteroid belt cannot be ignored.