Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed.     

Automatic sampling of stream water during storm events in small remote catchments

In order to study the relationship between water composition and stream flow rate, it is desirable to sample at a frequency related to flow rate, especially during storm events. In a rural catchment of 18 ha near Oxford, the rate of rainfall was found to be linearly related to discharge on the rising limb of the stream hydrograph. A sampling system was therefore designed in which electrical pulses from a tipping-bucket raingauge were used to initiate and control the action of an automatic water sampler. A threshold rainfall intensity is set above which sampling commences. Sampling then continues at regular increments of rainfall until the intensity drops below the threshold, after which sampling occurs at regular intervals during the period that the stream flow reverts to normal. The CMOS electrical circuits which control the sampling also operate a cassette tape recorder which records the time of each tip of the raingauge and operation of the sampler. Since the sytem is designed to impose very little additional load on the battery which powers the water sampler, and can operate unattended for at least a fortnight, it is ideal for use in small, remote catchments. The system has been extended to include measurements of water temperature and could provide other measurements as well.     

Risk of nitrate leaching from two soils amended with biosolids

High concentrations of N and P in biosolids are one of the strongest appeals for their agronomic use. However, it is essential to understand the fate of N in soils treated with biosolids for both plant nutrition and managing the environmental risk of NO ₃ ⁻ -N leaching. This work aims to evaluate the risk of nitrate leaching from a sandy Podosol soil and from a clay Ferrosol soil, each one amended at the range 0.5–8.0 dry Mg/ha rates of freshly tertiary sewage sludge, composted sludge, limed sludge, heating-dried sludge and solar-irradiated sludge. Results showed that for similar biosolids application rates NO ₃ ⁻ -N accumulated up to 3 times as much in the Ferrosol than in Podosol soil. However, there was a fixed 20% NO ₃ ⁻ -N loss from the 20 cm amended-Ferrosol topsoil, whilst the N-nitrified expected to leach down from 20 cm amended-Podosol topsoil layer ranged from 42% to 76% of the accumulated NO ₃ ⁻ -N, depending on the biosolid type. After all, NO ₃ ⁻ -N expected to leach from Podosol soil ranged from 0.6 (heating-dried sludge) to 3.9 times (limed sludge) relative to Ferrosol soil at similar biosolid application rates. Nevertheless, the risk of NO ₃ ⁻ -N groundwater contamination caused by biosolids applied at 0.5−8.0 dry Mg/ha rates could be considered very low. Published in Russian in Vodnye Resursy, 2006, Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 492–503.     

Hafnium/rare earth element fractionation in the sedimentary system and crustal recycling into the Earth's mantle

Among long-lived radioactive parent-daughter element pairs, the ratio Lu/Hf is strongly fractionated relative to constant Sm/Nd in the Earth's sedimentary system. This is caused by high resistance to chemical weathering of the mineral zircon (Zr,Hf)SiO₄. Zircon-bearing sandy sediments on and near continents have very low Lu/Hf, while deep-sea clays have up to three times the chondritic Lu/Hf ratio. Turbidity currents mechanically carry the low-Lu/Hf sandy material onto the ocean floor. The results are important for the crust-to-mantle recycling discussion, where most recycled materials would be subducted oceanic sediments. Such sediment should be capable of explaining the HfNd mantle isotopic variation by mixing with peridotite, but in fact any average pelagic sediment has Nd/Hf and Lu/Hf too high to allow mixing curves to pass through the Hf/Nd isotopic array. The array could only be reproduced by subduction of turbidite sandstone with pelagic sediment in the approximate ratio 1.2 to 1, and by maintaining a good mixture between the two components. At least today, turbidites are available for subduction only at locations quite different and distant from those where pelagic sediments may be recycled; furthermore, mantle isotopic variation shows that the mantle often cannot mix itself well enough to homogenize these widely-separated sedimentary components to the degree required. The Lu/Hf fractionations place a severe restriction on the ability of recycled sediments to explain mantle isotopic patterns.     

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Upper White Nile lakes and their relevance for water resources management in the Nile basin

Remote sensing data and digital elevation models were utilized to extract the catchment hydrological parameters and to delineate storage areas for the Ugandan Equatorial Lakes region. Available rainfall/discharge data are integrated with these morphometric data to construct a hydrological model that simulates the water balance of the different interconnected basins and enables the impact of potential management options to be examined. The total annual discharges of the basins are generally very low (less than 7% of the total annual rainfall). The basin of the shallow (5 m deep) Lake Kioga makes only a minor hydrological contribution compared with other Equatorial Lakes, because most of the overflow from Lake Victoria basin into Lake Kioga is lost by evaporation and evapotranspiration. The discharge from Lake Kioga could be significantly increased by draining the swamps through dredging and deepening certain channel reaches. Development of hydropower dams on the Equatorial Lakes will have an adverse impact on the annual water discharge downstream, including the occasional reduction of flow required for filling up to designed storage capacities and permanently increasing the surface areas of water that is exposed to evaporation. On the basis of modelling studies, alternative sites are proposed for hydropower development and water storage schemes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical equilibrium and mass balance relationships associated with the Long Valley hydrothermal system, California, U.S.A.

Recent drilling and sampling of hydrothermal fluids from Long Valley permit an accurate characterization of chemical concentrations and equilibrium conditions in the hydrothermal reservoir. Hydrothermal fluids are thermodynamically saturated with secondary quartz, calcite, and pyrite but are in disequilibrium with respect to aqueous sulfide-sulfate speciation. Hydrothermal fluids are enriched in ¹⁸O by approximately 1‰ relative to recharge waters. ¹⁸O and Cl concentrations in well cuttings and core from high-temperature zones of the reservoir are extensively depleted relative to fresh rhyolitic tuff compositions. Approximately 80% of the Li and 50% of the B are retained in the altered reservoir rock. Cl mass balance and open-system ¹⁸O fractionation models produce similar water-rock ratios of between 1.0 and 2.5 kg kg⁻¹. These water-rock ratios coupled with estimates of reservoir porosity and density produce a minimum fluid residence time of 1.3 ka. The low fluid Cl concentrations in Long Valley correlate with corresponding low rock concentrations. Mass balance calculations indicate that leaching of these reservoir rocks accounts for Cl losses during hydrothermal activity over the last 40 ka.     

Towards Improved Remedial Outcomes in Categorical Aquifers with an Iterative Ensemble Smoother

Categorical parameter distributions consisting of geologic facies with distinct properties, for example, high-permeability channels embedded in a low-permeability matrix, are common at contaminated sites. At these sites, low-permeability facies store solute mass, acting as secondary sources to higher-permeability facies, sustaining concentrations for decades while increasing risk and cleanup costs. Parameter estimation is difficult in such systems because the discontinuities in the parameter space hinder the inverse problem. This paper presents a novel approach based on Traveling Pilot Points (TRIPS) and an iterative ensemble smoother (IES) to solve the categorical inverse problem. Groundwater flow and solute transport in a hypothetical aquifer with a categorical parameter distribution are simulated using MODFLOW 6. Heads and concentrations are recorded at multiple monitoring locations. IES is used to generate posterior ensembles assuming a TRIPS prior and an approximate multi-Gaussian prior. The ensembles are used to predict solute concentrations and mass into the future. The evaluation also includes an assessment of how the number of measurements and the choice of the geological prior determine the characteristics of the posterior ensemble and the resulting predictions. The results indicate that IES was able to efficiently sample the posterior distribution and showed that even with an approximate geological prior, a high degree of parameterization and history matching could lead to parameter ensembles that can be useful for making certain types of predictions (heads, concentrations). However, the approximate geological prior was insufficient for predicting mass. The analysis demonstrates how decision-makers can quantify uncertainty and make informed decisions with an ensemble-based approach.     

Geochemistry of waters in the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes region, Alaska

Meteoric waters from cold springs and streams outside of the 1912 eruptive deposits filling the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS) and in the upper parts of the two major rivers draining the 1912 deposits have similar chemical trends. Thermal springs issue in the mid-valley area along a 300-m lateral section of ash-flow tuff, and range in temperature from 21 to 29.8°C in early summer and from 15 to 17°C in mid-summer. Concentrations of major and minor chemical constituents in the thermal waters are nearly identical regardless of temperature. Waters in the downvalley parts of the rivers draining the 1912 deposits are mainly mixtures of cold meteoric waters and thermal waters of which the mid-valley thermal spring waters are representative. The weathering reactions of cold waters with the 1912 deposits appear to have stabilized and add only subordinate amounts of chemical constituents to the rivers relative to those contributed by the thermal waters. Isotopic data indicate that the mid-valley thermal spring waters are meteoric, but data is inconclusive regarding the heat source. The thermal waters could be either from a shallow part of a hydrothermal system beneath the 1912 vent region or from an incompletely cooled, welded tuff lens deep in the 1912 ash-flow sheet of the upper River Lethe area.Bicarbonate-sulfate waters resulting from interaction of near-surface waters and the cooling 1953–1968 southwest Trident plug issue from thermal springs south of Katmai Pass and near Mageik Creek, although the Mageik Creek spring waters are from a well-established, more deeply circulating hydrothermal system. Katmai caldera lake waters are a result of acid gases from vigorous drowned fumaroles dissolving in lake waters composed of snowmelt and precipitation.     

Simulations of deep pencil-beam redshift surveys

We create mock pencil-beam redshift surveys from very large cosmological N -body simulations of two cold dark matter (CDM) cosmogonies, an Einstein–de Sitter model ( τ CDM) and a flat model with Ω₀=0.3 and a cosmological constant (ΛCDM). We use these to assess the significance of the apparent periodicity discovered by Broadhurst et al. Simulation particles are tagged as 'galaxies' so as to reproduce observed present-day correlations. They are then identified along the past light-cones of hypothetical observers to create mock catalogues with the geometry and the distance distribution of the Broadhurst et al. data. We produce 1936 (2625) quasi-independent catalogues from our τ CDM (ΛCDM) simulation. A couple of large clumps in a catalogue can produce a high peak at low wavenumbers in the corresponding one-dimensional power spectrum, without any apparent large-scale periodicity in the original redshift histogram. Although the simulated redshift histograms frequently display regularly spaced clumps, the spacing of these clumps varies between catalogues and there is no 'preferred' period over our many realizations. We find only a 0.72 (0.49) per cent chance that the highest peak in the power spectrum of a τ CDM (ΛCDM) catalogue has a peak-to-noise ratio higher than that in the Broadhurst et al. data. None of the simulated catalogues with such high peaks shows coherently spaced clumps with a significance as high as that of the real data. We conclude that in CDM universes, the regularity on a scale of ∼130  h ⁻¹ Mpc observed by Broadhurst et al. has a priori probability well below 10⁻³.