Coronal Holes and Solar Wind High-Speed Streams: II. Forecasting the Geomagnetic Effects

We present a simple method of forecasting the geomagnetic storms caused by high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind. The method is based on the empirical correlation between the coronal hole area/position and the value of the Dst index, which is established in a period of low interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) activity. On average, the highest geomagnetic activity, i.e., the minimum in Dst, occurs four days after a low-latitude coronal hole (CH) crosses the central meridian. The amplitude of the Dst dip is correlated with the CH area and depends on the magnetic polarity of the CH due to the Russell – McPherron effect. The Dst variation may be predicted by employing the expression Dst(t)=(−65±25×cos λ)[A(t ^*)]^0.5, where A(t ^*) is the fractional CH area measured in the central-meridian slice [−10°,10°] of the solar disc, λ is the ecliptic longitude of the Earth, ± stands for positive/negative CH polarity, and t−t ^*=4 days. In periods of low ICME activity, the proposed expression provides forecasting of the amplitude of the HSS-associated Dst dip to an accuracy of ≈30%. However, the time of occurrence of the Dst minimum cannot be predicted to better than ±2 days, and consequently, the overall mean relative difference between the observed and calculated daily values of Dst ranges around 50%.     

Analysis Of The Disappearing Filament And Flare Of 7 May 1992

By using Yohkoh soft X-ray data, H filtergrams, and radio data, the activation of the disappearing filament and the flare eruption on 7 May 1992 have been studied. Main conclusions are as follows: (1) the emergence of new magnetic flux tends to affect the pre-existing X-ray loops, which usually appear in arcades spanning H filament, changing the magnetic environment of the filament, and then enhance the current in the filament. Therefore newly emerging flux plays a fundamental role in the destabilization of this filament. (2) According to the H data and the rising motion of the filament, the corresponding current variation in the filament has been calculated. It seems that the current interruption may be a possible trigger mechanism for this filament disappearance. (3) The magnetic field strength and the energy flux of energetic electrons in the source region of microwave bursts have been estimated by using the microwave spectrum. During the main phase, the mean magnetic strength and the energy flux of energetic electrons are about 300–400 G and 1×1011 erg cm–2 s –1, respectively. (4) The energy provided by reconnection of the current sheet and the total energy of the current filament are estimated and we show that there is enough energy stored in the filament to feed the 7 May, 1992 flare.     

A Snapshot of the Sun Near Solar Minimum: The Whole Heliosphere Interval

We present an overview of the data and models collected for the Whole Heliosphere Interval, an international campaign to study the three-dimensional solar?Cheliospheric?Cplanetary connected system near solar minimum. The data and models correspond to solar Carrington Rotation 2068 (20 March??C?16 April 2008) extending from below the solar photosphere, through interplanetary space, and down to Earth??s mesosphere. Nearly 200 people participated in aspects of WHI studies, analyzing and interpreting data from nearly 100 instruments and models in order to elucidate the physics of fundamental heliophysical processes. The solar and inner heliospheric data showed structure consistent with the declining phase of the solar cycle. A closely spaced cluster of low-latitude active regions was responsible for an increased level of magnetic activity, while a highly warped current sheet dominated heliospheric structure. The geospace data revealed an unusually high level of activity, driven primarily by the periodic impingement of high-speed streams. The WHI studies traced the solar activity and structure into the heliosphere and geospace, and provided new insight into the nature of the interconnected heliophysical system near solar minimum.     

Time Variability of Rotation in Solar Convection Zone From soi-mdi

The variation of rotation in the convection zone over a period of two years from mid-1996 is studied using inversions of SOI–MDI data. We confirm the existence of near-surface banded zonal flows migrating towards the equator from higher latitudes, and reveal that these banded flows extend substantially beneath the surface, possibly to depths as great as 70 Mm (10% of the solar radius). Our results also reveal apparently significant temporal variations in the rotation rate at high latitudes and in the vicinity of the tachocline over the period of study.     

Radiative Transfer Models of Dust Shells Around Post-AGB Stars

We present a radiative transfer analysis of circumstellar dust shells around the Post-AGB stars HD 179821, HD 56126, HD 101584 and early R star HD 100764, using the code DUSTY. Parameters like mass-loss, shell inner radius, dust temperature, outflow velocity etc., are derived for HD 179821and HD 56126 whose observed SED could be reproduced by our models. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Auroral recombination of N and O: A possible source for emission in the γ and δ bands of NO

Radiative recombination of N and O provides a significant source for auroral emission in the γ and δ bands of NO with selective population of vibrational levels in the A²Σ⁺ and C²Π states. This mechanism may account for emissions detected near 2150 Å. Models are derived for the auroral ionosphere and include estimates for the concentrations of N and NO. The concentration of NO is estimated to have a value of about 10⁸ cm^?1 near 140 km in an IBC III aurora. The corresponding density for N is about 5 × 10⁷cm^?3 and the concentration ratio $\text{NO}{}^{\mathrm{+}}\text{O}{}_2{}^{\mathrm{+}}$ has a value of about 5.5.     

The tidal stripping of satellites

We present an improved analytic calculation for the tidal radius of satellites and test our results against N -body simulations.
The tidal radius in general depends upon four factors: the potential of the host galaxy, the potential of the satellite, the orbit of the satellite and the orbit of the star within the satellite . We demonstrate that this last point is critical and suggest using three tidal radii to cover the range of orbits of stars within the satellite. In this way we show explicitly that prograde star orbits will be more easily stripped than radial orbits; while radial orbits are more easily stripped than retrograde ones. This result has previously been established by several authors numerically, but can now be understood analytically. For point mass, power-law (which includes the isothermal sphere), and a restricted class of split power-law potentials our solution is fully analytic. For more general potentials, we provide an equation which may be rapidly solved numerically.
Over short times (≲1–2 Gyr ∼1 satellite orbit), we find excellent agreement between our analytic and numerical models. Over longer times, star orbits within the satellite are transformed by the tidal field of the host galaxy. In a Hubble time, this causes a convergence of the three limiting tidal radii towards the prograde stripping radius. Beyond the prograde stripping radius, the velocity dispersion will be tangentially anisotropic.     

The origin of Vesta’s crust: Insights from spectroscopy of the Vestoids

High quality VNIR spectra of 15 Vestoids, small asteroids that are believed to originate from Vesta, were collected and compared to laboratory spectra and compositional data for selected HED meteorites. A combination of spectral parameters such as band centers, and factors derived from Modified Gaussian Model fits (band centers, band strengths, calculation of the low to high-Ca pyroxene ratio) were used to establish if each Vestoid appeared most like eucrite or diogenite material, or a mixture of the two (howardite). This resulted in the identification of the first asteroid with a ferroan diogenite composition, 2511 Patterson. This asteroid can be used to constrain the size of diogenite magma chambers within the crust of Vesta. The Vestoids indicate that both large-scale homogeneous units (>5 km) and smaller-scale heterogeneity (<1 km) exist on the surface of Vesta, as both monomineralogic (eucrite or diogenite material alone) and mixed (both eucrite and diogenite) spectra are observed. The small-scale of the variation observed within the Vestoid population is predicted by the partial melting model, which has multiple intrusions penetrating into the crust of Vesta. It is much more difficult to reconcile the observations here with the magma ocean model, which would predict much more homogeneous layers on a large-scale both at the surface and with depth.     

On ‘bimodality of the solar cycle’ and the duration of cycle 21

The period-growth dichotomy of the solar cycle predicts that cycle 21, the present solar cycle, will be of long duration (>133 mo), ending after July 1987. Bimodality of the solar cycle (i.e., cycles being distributed into two groups according to cycle length, based on a comparison to the mean cycle period) is clearly seen in a scatter diagram of descent versus ascent durations. Based on the well-observed cycles 8–20, a linear fit for long-period cycles (being a relatively strong inverse relationship that is significant at the 5% level and having a coefficient of determination r ² 0.66) suggests that cycle 21, having an ascent of 42 mo, will have a descent near 99 mo; thus, cycle duration of about 141 mo is expected. Like cycle 11, cycle 21 occurs on the downward envelope of the sunspot number curve, yet is associated with an upward first difference in amplitude. A comparison of individual cycle, smoothed sunspot number curves for cycles 21 and 11 reveals striking similarity, which suggests that if, indeed, cycle 21 is a long-period cycle, then it too may have an extended tail of sustained, low, smoothed sunspot number, with cycle 22 minimum occurring either in late 1987 or early 1988.