Ecological limits to terrestrial biological carbon dioxide removal

Terrestrial biological atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (BCDR) through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECS), afforestation/reforestation, and forest and soil management is a family of proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Very high sequestration potentials for these strategies have been reported, but there has been no systematic analysis of the potential ecological limits to and environmental impacts of implementation at the scale relevant to climate change mitigation. In this analysis, we identified site-specific aspects of land, water, nutrients, and habitat that will affect local project-scale carbon sequestration and ecological impacts. Using this framework, we estimated global-scale land and resource requirements for BCDR, implemented at a rate of 1 Pg C y^?1. We estimate that removing 1 Pg C y^?1 via tropical afforestation would require at least 7?×?10⁶ ha y^?1 of land, 0.09 Tg y^?1 of nitrogen, and 0.2 Tg y^?1 of phosphorous, and would increase evapotranspiration from those lands by almost 50 %. Switchgrass BECS would require at least 2?×?10⁸ ha of land (20 times U.S. area currently under bioethanol production) and 20 Tg y^?1 of nitrogen (20 % of global fertilizer nitrogen production), consuming 4?×?10¹²?m³ y^?1 of water. While BCDR promises some direct (climate) and ancillary (restoration, habitat protection) benefits, Pg C-scale implementation may be constrained by ecological factors, and may compromise the ultimate goals of climate change mitigation.     

The contribution of rare species to coastal phytoplankton assemblages

Analysis of quantitative and qualitative composition of rare phytoplankton species was performed using a data set collected over a large geographic area (four eutrophic gulfs of the Aegean Sea, E. Mediterranean Sea) during 2002–2003. We examined the effects of excluding rare species on comparisons of species richness, diversity, similarity and niche breadth as well as the regional and seasonal contribution of rare species to cell abundance and carbon biomass. Overall, the total of 401 species included 182 rare species contributing 45.1% of the total species number. However, there was a considerable variation in this relationship among the other parameters, as rare species contributed only 6.4% of total cell abundance, 13.1% of total species diversity, 21.2% of total cell biovolume and 16.6% of total carbon biomass. The results showed that rarity may be a significant issue in studies detecting and quantifying phytoplankton community structure.     

The water content of CM carbonaceous chondrite falls and finds,and their susceptibility to terrestrial contamination

CM carbonaceous chondrites can be used to constrain the abundance and H isotopic composition of water and OH in C-complex asteroids. Previous measurements of the water/OH content of the CMs are at the higher end of the compositional range of asteroids as determined by remote sensing. One possible explanation is that the indigenous water/OH content of meteorites has been overestimated due to contamination during their time on Earth. Here we have sought to better understand the magnitude and rate of terrestrial contamination through quantifying the concentration and H isotopic composition of telluric and indigenous water in CM falls by stepwise pyrolysis. These measurements have been integrated with published pyrolysis data from CM falls and finds. Once exposed to Earth's atmosphere CM falls are contaminated rapidly, with some acquiring weight percent concentrations of water within days. The amount of water added does not progressively increase with time because CM falls have a similar range of adsorbed water contents to finds. Instead, the petrologic types of CMs strongly influence the amount of terrestrial water that they can acquire. This relationship is probably controlled by mineralogical and/or petrophysical properties of the meteorites that affect their hygroscopicity. Irrespective of the quantity of water that a sample adsorbs or its terrestrial age, there is minimal exchange of H in indigenous phyllosilicates with the terrestrial environment. The falls and finds discussed here contain 1.9–10.5 wt% indigenous water (average 7.0 wt%) that is consistent with recent measurements of C-complex asteroids including Bennu.     

PITCHER PLANTS RECORDED FROM BRIS FOREST IN JAMBU BONGKOK, KUALA TRENGGANU, MALAYSIA

1INTRODUCTION NepentheswhichareknownlocallyinPeninsular Malaysiaasperiukkerabelongtoamonogenericfami lyNepenthaceae.Atpresent,atotalofninespecies(excludingnaturalhybrids)arerecordedfromPenin sularMalaysia.Ofthese,fourspeciesareendemic,whilsttheotherfivespeciesarefoundoutsidethepen insula.Thespeciescanarbitrarilybeclassifiedinto thelowlandspeciesandthehighlandspecies(Clarke,2002;Shivas,1984;Kurata,1976).Threespeciesarefoundinthehighlandhabitatscom monlyatanelevationofabove1000mforaboves…     

Impacts of deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region as simulated by the MPI atmospheric GCM

For two reasons it is important to study the sensitivity of the global climate to changes in the vegetation cover over land. First, in the real world, changes in the vegetation cover may have regional and global implications. Second, in numerical simulations, the sensitivity of the simulated climate may depend on the specific parameterization schemes employed in the model and on the model's large-scale systematic errors. The Max-Planck-Institute's global general circulation model ECHAM4 has been used to study the sensitivity of the local and global climate during a full annual cycle to deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region. The deforestation represents an extreme desertification scenario for this region. The changes in the afforestation experiment are based on the pattern of the vegetation cover 2000 years before present when the climate in the Mediterranean was more humid. The comparison of the deforestation integration to the control shows a slight cooling at the surface and reduced precipitation during the summer as a result of less evapotranspiration of plants and less evaporation from the assumption of eroded soils. There is no significant signal during the winter season due to the stronger influence of the mid-latitude baroclinic disturbances. In general, the results of the afforestation experiment are opposite to those of the deforestation case. A significant response was found in the vicinity of grid points where the land surface characteristics were modified. The response in the Sahara in the afforestation experiment is in agreement with the results from other general circulation model studies.     

Evaluation of optical remote sensing-based shallow water bathymetry for recursive mapping

Water depth estimation using optical remote sensing offers a reliable and efficient means of mapping coastal zones. Here, we aim to find a suitable model for fast and practical bathymetry of an estuary using Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS) Linear Imaging Self Scanning Sensor (LISS-3) images. The study examines three different models; (1) least square regression model, (2) spectral band-ratio method and (3) multi-tidal bathymetry model. The findings are supported with in situ observed depth values and statistical estimates. Although the least square regression model has provided best results with root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.4 m, it requires a large number of observed data points for absolute depth estimation. Spectral band-ratio and multi-tidal model provides results with RMSEs 2.1 and 0.9 m, respectively. The present investigation demonstrates that multi-date imagery exploitation at disparate tide levels is the best estimation technique for recursive shallow water bathymetry where in situ observation is not possible.     

Tree-ring reconstructed rainfall variability in Zimbabwe

We present the first tree-ring reconstruction of rainfall in tropical Africa using a 200-year regional chronology based on samples of Pterocarpus angolensis from Zimbabwe. The regional chronology is significantly correlated with summer rainfall (November–February) from 1901 to 1948, and the derived reconstruction explains 46% of the instrumental rainfall variance during this period. The reconstruction is well correlated with indices of the El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), and national maize yields. An aridity trend in instrumental rainfall beginning in about 1960 is partially reproduced in the reconstruction, and similar trends are evident in the nineteenth century. A decadal-scale drought reconstructed from 1882 to 1896 matches the most severe sustained drought during the instrumental period (1989–1995), and is confirmed in part by documentary evidence. An even more severe drought is indicated from 1859 to 1868 in both the tree-ring and documentary data, but its true magnitude is uncertain. A 6-year wet period at the turn of the nineteenth century (1897–1902) exceeds any wet episode during the instrumental era. The reconstruction exhibits spectral power at ENSO, decadal and multi-decadal frequencies. Composite analysis of global sea surface temperature during unusually wet and dry years also suggests a linkage between reconstructed rainfall and ENSO.     

Vulnerability to epidemic malaria in the highlands of Lake Victoria basin: the role of climate change/variability, hydrology and socio-economic factors

Endemic malaria in most of the hot and humid African climates is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In the last twenty or so years the incidence of malaria has been aggravated by the resurgence of highland malaria epidemics which hitherto had been rare. A close association between malaria epidemics and climate variability has been reported but not universally accepted. Similarly, the relationship between climate variability, intensity of disease mortality and morbidity coupled with socio-economic factors has been mooted. Analyses of past climate (temperature and precipitation), hydrological and health data (1961–2001), and socio-economics status of communities from the East African highlands confirm the link between climate variability and the incidence and severity of malaria epidemics. The communities in the highlands that have had less exposure to malaria are more vulnerable than their counterparts in the lowlands due to lack of clinical immunity. However, the vulnerability of human health to climate variability is influenced by the coping and adaptive capacities of an individual or community. Surveys conducted among three communities in the East African highlands reveal that the interplay of poverty and other socio-economic variables have intensified the vulnerability of these communities to the impacts of malaria.     

Hindcast skill and predictability for precipitation and two-meter air temperature anomalies in global circulation models over the Southeast United States

This paper presents an assessment of the seasonal prediction skill of current global circulation models, with a focus on the two-meter air temperature and precipitation over the Southeast United States. The model seasonal hindcasts are analyzed using measures of potential predictability, anomaly correlation, Brier skill score, and Gerrity skill score. The systematic differences in prediction skill of coupled ocean–atmosphere models versus models using prescribed (either observed or predicted) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are documented. It is found that the predictability and the hindcast skill of the models vary seasonally and spatially. The largest potential predictability (signal-to-noise ratio) of precipitation anywhere in the United States is found in the Southeast in the spring and winter seasons. The maxima in the potential predictability of two-meter air temperature, however, reside outside the Southeast in all seasons. The largest deterministic hindcast skill over the Southeast is found in wintertime precipitation. At the same time, the boreal winter two-meter air temperature hindcasts have the smallest skill. The large wintertime precipitation skill, the lack of corresponding two-meter air temperature hindcast skill, and a lack of precipitation skill in any other season are features common to all three types of models (atmospheric models forced with observed SSTs, atmospheric models forced with predicted SSTs, and coupled ocean–atmosphere models). Atmospheric models with observed SST forcing demonstrate a moderate skill in hindcasting spring-and summertime two-meter air temperature anomalies, whereas coupled models and atmospheric models forced with predicted SSTs lack similar skill. Probabilistic and categorical hindcasts mirror the deterministic findings, i.e., there is very high skill for winter precipitation and none for summer precipitation. When skillful, the models are conservative, such that low-probability hindcasts tend to be overestimates, whereas high-probability hindcasts tend to be underestimates.