Spuriously induced precipitation trends in the southeast United States

This study uses correlation and multiple regression techniques to document differences in annual and seasonal precipitation trends between the NCDC Climate Division database and the United States Historical Climate Network (USHCN) in the southeast United States. Findings indicate that the majority of climate divisions have different temporal patterns than those depicted by the USHCN. They did not, however, consistently possess statistically significant relationships between the ratio (CDD/USHCN) and changes in mean station location as noted in other studies. It appears that other influences cause the majority of the variance between the two datasets. The fact that the two datasets do not consistently agree, however, suggests that spuriously induced trends may be present in the NCDC Climate Division database.     

An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability

Adaptation to climate variability and change is important both for impact assessment (to estimate adaptations which are likely to occur) and for policy development (to advise on or prescribe adaptations). This paper proposes an "anatomy of adaptation" to systematically specify and differentiate adaptations, based upon three questions: (i) adapt to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? Climatic stimuli include changes in long-term mean conditions and variability about means, both current and future, and including extremes. Adaptation depends fundamentally on the characteristics of the system of interest, including its sensitivities and vulnerabilities. The nature of adaptation processes and forms can be distinguished by numerous attributes including timing, purposefulness, and effect. The paper notes the contribution of conceptual and numerical models and empirical studies to the understanding of adaptation, and outlines approaches to the normative evaluation of adaptation measures and strategies.     

Energy market failure in road transport: Is there scope for ‘no regrets’ greenhouse gas reduction?

The Australian Government policy on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions announced in 1990 includes exploring the scope for immediate, low cost reductions. Such measures can be taken as including ‘no regrets’ policies: those that, in addition to mitigating potential climate change, confer economic gains (including other environmental benefits) which exceed their costs. Some possible ‘no regrets’ opportunities and policies are identified relevant to energy use by the road transport sector over the period to 2020. The MARKALMENSA multi-period linear programming model of the Australian energy sector is used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of these policies.     

Globalization,Pacific Islands,and the paradox of resilience

On April 2nd, 2007 a 12 m tsunami struck Simbo, a relatively remote island in Western Province, Solomon Islands. Although Simbo's population continues to depend on their own food production and small-scale governance regimes regulate access to resources, the island's way of life over the last century has increasingly been affected by processes associated with globalization. In this context of a rapidly globalizing world, this article examines the island's resilience and vulnerability to the tsunami and the adaptive capacities that enabled the response and recovery. The tsunami completely destroyed two villages and damaged fringing coral reefs, but casualties were low and social–ecological rebound relatively brisk. By combining social science methods (household surveys, focus group and ethnographic interviews) and underwater reef surveys we identify a number of countervailing challenges and opportunities presented by globalization that both nurture and suppress the island's resilience to high amplitude, low-frequency disturbances like tsunamis. Analysis suggests that certain adaptive capacities that sustain general system resilience come at the cost of more vulnerability to low-probability hazards. We discuss how communities undergoing increasingly complex processes of change must negotiate these kinds of trade-offs as they manage resilience at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the shifting dynamics of resilience may be critical for Pacific Island communities who seek to leverage globalization in their favor as they adapt to current social–ecological change and prepare for future large-scale ecological disturbances.     

Remote sensing-derived national land cover land use maps: a comparison for Malawi

Reliable land cover land use (LCLU) information, and change over time, is important for Green House Gas (GHG) reporting for climate change documentation. Four different organizations have independently created LCLU maps from 2010 satellite imagery for Malawi for GHG reporting. This analysis compares the procedures and results for those four activities. Four different classification methods were employed; traditional visual interpretation, segmentation and visual labelling, digital clustering with visual identification and supervised signature extraction with application of a decision rule followed by analyst editing. One effort did not report classification accuracy and the other three had very similar and excellent overall thematic accuracies ranging from 85 to 89%. However, despite these high thematic accuracies there were very significant differences in results. National percentages for forest ranged from 18.2 to 28.7% and cropland from 40.5 to 53.7%. These significant differences are concerns for both remote-sensing scientists and decision-makers in Malawi.     

Using micro-catchment experiments for multi-local scale modelling of nature-based solutions

The Q-natural flood management project has co-developed with the Environment Agency 18 monitored micro-catchments (~1 km²) in Cumbria, UK installing calibrated flumes aimed at quantifying the potential shift in observed flows resulting from a range of nature-based-solutions installed by local organizations. The small-scale reduces the influence of variability characterizing larger catchments that would otherwise mask any such shifts, which we attempt to relate to a shift in model parameters. This paper demonstrates an approach to applying donor-parameter-shifts obtained from modelling two of the paired micro-catchments to a much larger scale, in order to understand the potential for improved distributed modelling of nature-based solutions in the form of additional tree-planting. The models include a rainfall-runoff model, Dynamic Topmodel, and a 2D hydrodynamic model, JFlow, permitting analysis of changes in hillslope processes and channel hydrodynamics resulting from a range of distributed measures designed to emulate natural hydrological processes that evaporate, store or infiltrate flows. We report on attempts to detect shift in hydrological response using one of the paired-micro-catchment moorland versus forestry sites in Lorton using Dynamic Topmodel. A donor-parameter-shift approach is used in a hypothetical experiment to represent new woodland in a much larger catchment, although testing all combinations of spatial planting strategies, responses to multiple-extremes, failure-modes and changes to synchronization becomes intractable to support good decision making. We argue that the problem can be re-framed to use donor-parameter-shifts at multi-local-scale catchments above communities known to be at risk, commensurate with most of the evidence of NbS impacts being effective at the small scale (ca. 10 km²). This might lead to more effective modelling to help catchment managers prioritize those communities-at-risk where there is more evidence that NbS might be effective.     

Deep-sea faunal communities associated with a lost intermodal shipping container in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary,CA

Carrying assorted cargo and covered with paints of varying toxicity, lost intermodal containers may take centuries to degrade on the deep seafloor. In June 2004, scientists from Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) discovered a recently lost container during a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) dive on a sediment-covered seabed at 1281 m depth in Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (MBNMS). The site was revisited by ROV in March 2011. Analyses of sediment samples and high-definition video indicate that faunal assemblages on the container’s exterior and the seabed within 10 m of the container differed significantly from those up to 500 m. The container surface provides hard substratum for colonization by taxa typically found in rocky habitats. However, some key taxa that dominate rocky areas were absent or rare on the container, perhaps related to its potential toxicity or limited time for colonization and growth. Ecological effects appear to be restricted to the container surface and the benthos within ∼10 m.     

Influence of a coarse interlayer on seawater intrusion and contaminant migration in coastal aquifers

Vertical 2D slice laboratory experiments were carried out in homogenous and layered sand tanks to elucidate the effects of a highly permeable (coarse‐grained sand) interlayer on seawater intrusion and transport of contaminants to a coastal sea. Tidal fluctuations produced oscillations in the seawater–freshwater transition zone, fluctuations of the contaminant infiltration rate and a zigzag contaminant plume outline. The seawater wedge became discontinuous at the (vertical) edges of the interlayer because of increased lateral movement of the seawater–freshwater interface within the interlayer. The contaminant plume formed a tail within the interlayer depending on the tidal stage, and similar to the wedge, its movement was accentuated. A simple analytical model that neglected vertical flow reliably predicted steady‐state seawater intrusion into the coastal aquifer. Numerical modeling was used to gain insight into the groundwater hydrodynamics and contaminant migration. The numerical results confirmed the experimental findings, i.e. that a highly permeable interlayer can provide a rapid transit path for contaminants to reach the seaward boundary and that the interlayer amplifies the effects of tidal fluctuations, resulting in wider transition zones for the seawater wedge and contaminant plume. Numerical simulations further showed that, with increasing interlayer hydraulic conductivity, the maximum seawater intrusion distance inside the interlayer increases approximately linearly. For the fixed‐head contaminant injection condition used, the model showed that contaminant infiltration increases approximately logarithmically with increasing interlayer hydraulic conductivity (other factors held fixed). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Snake River (SR)-type’ volcanism at the Yellowstone hotspot track: distinctive products from unusual,high-temperature silicic super-eruptions

A new category of large-scale volcanism, here termed Snake River (SR)-type volcanism, is defined with reference to a distinctive volcanic facies association displayed by Miocene rocks in the central Snake River Plain area of southern Idaho and northern Nevada, USA. The facies association contrasts with those typical of silicic volcanism elsewhere and records unusual, voluminous and particularly environmentally devastating styles of eruption that remain poorly understood. It includes: (1) large-volume, lithic-poor rhyolitic ignimbrites with scarce pumice lapilli; (2) extensive, parallel-laminated, medium to coarse-grained ashfall deposits with large cuspate shards, crystals and a paucity of pumice lapilli; many are fused to black vitrophyre; (3) unusually extensive, large-volume rhyolite lavas; (4) unusually intense welding, rheomorphism, and widespread development of lava-like facies in the ignimbrites; (5) extensive, fines-rich ash deposits with abundant ash aggregates (pellets and accretionary lapilli); (6) the ashfall layers and ignimbrites contain abundant clasts of dense obsidian and vitrophyre; (7) a bimodal association between the rhyolitic rocks and numerous, coalescing low-profile basalt lava shields; and (8) widespread evidence of emplacement in lacustrine-alluvial environments, as revealed by intercalated lake sediments, ignimbrite peperites, rhyolitic and basaltic hyaloclastites, basalt pillow-lava deltas, rhyolitic and basaltic phreatomagmatic tuffs, alluvial sands and palaeosols. Many rhyolitic eruptions were high mass-flux, large volume and explosive (VEI 6–8), and involved H₂O-poor, low-δ¹⁸O, metaluminous rhyolite magmas with unusually low viscosities, partly due to high magmatic temperatures (900–1,050°C). SR-type volcanism contrasts with silicic volcanism at many other volcanic fields, where the fall deposits are typically Plinian with pumice lapilli, the ignimbrites are low to medium grade (non-welded to eutaxitic) with abundant pumice lapilli or fiamme, and the rhyolite extrusions are small volume silicic domes and coulées. SR-type volcanism seems to have occurred at numerous times in Earth history, because elements of the facies association occur within some other volcanic fields, including Trans-Pecos Texas, Etendeka-Paraná, Lebombo, the English Lake District, the Proterozoic Keewanawan volcanics of Minnesota and the Yardea Dacite of Australia. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. This paper constitutes part of a special issue dedicated to Bill Bonnichsen on the petrogenesis and volcanology of anorogenic rhyolites.