A derived probability distribution approach to stormwater quality modeling

The closed-form analytical stormwater quality models are developed for simulating urban catchment pollutant buildup and washoff processes. By integrating the rainfall–runoff transformation with pollutant buildup and washoff functions, stormwater quality measures, such as the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of pollutant loads, the expected value of pollutant event mean concentrations (EMCs) and the average annual pollutant load can be derived. This paper presents methodologies and major procedures for the development of urban stormwater quality models based on derived probability distribution theory. In order to investigate the spatial variation in model parameters and its impact on stormwater pollutant buildup and washoff processes as well as pollutant loads to receiving waters, an extended form of the original rainfall–runoff transformation which is based on lumped runoff coefficient approach is proposed to differentiate runoff generation mechanisms between the impervious and pervious areas of the catchment. In addition, as a contrast to the aggregated pollutant buildup models formulated with a single lumped buildup parameter, the disaggregated form of the pollutant buildup model is proposed by introducing a number of physically-based parameters associated with pollutant buildup and washoff processes into the pollutant load models. The results from the case study indicate that analytical urban stormwater management model are capable of providing results in good agreement with the field measurements, and can be employed as alternatives to continuous simulation models in the evaluation of long-term stormwater quality measures.     

Secondary dispersion from gold deposits in west Turkey

Orientation studies over the Sarpda? prospect in the Biga peninsula and the Arapdagi deposit near Izmir have provided elear evidence for elemental dispersion around west Turkish gold prospects. Although these deposits are of different types, silicification associated with the deposits results in the main part of both deposits forming topographic highs.At Sarpda? gold mineralisation is relatively weak compared with nearby prospects and associated with a silicified cap on the main hill. Comparison of coarse and fine fractions, based on a 190 μm size split of 8 kg of -2 mm material, suggests that gold disperses clastically on the steep slopes, probably within silica, but coarse grains break down giving Au concentrations in the finer fractions at the base of the main slope. Discrete gold grains, that can be panned, only occur 1–2 km downstream within the streams and heavy mineral concentrations are very limited. This interpretation of Au dispersion is consistent with the data from 1 kg samples collected at the higher primary grade, but more contaminated, Arapda?i prospect.Antimony is the most consistent pathfinder both for the silicified cap at Sarpda? and for gold-rich veins at Arpada?i. It gives high contrast anomalies. Arsenic is useful being more mobile than Sb, although contrast may be low. High resolution Ag data can be useful but base metal enrichments are also often associated with Ag anomalies. Most prospects have some base metal enrichments although they can be displaced from the main gold-rich parts of the deposit and anomalies may be weak. Lead and Cu are the more consistently useful elements.The use of large (> 8 kg of -2 mm material) samples produces consistent stream sediment data that can be used to reliably interpret single samples and quantify Au anomalies. A survey around the Halíköy Hg and Emirli Sb mines, using these large samples, confirmed the extension of the known gold-bearing Emirli structure. In contrast the major Hg-bearing Halíköy Fault is gold poor although a structure parallel to it is auriferous.     

A note on peak-to-mean concentration ratios

The peak-to-mean concentration ratio obtained from observations near a point source of pollution is a particular example of the ratio of any short-period concentration to the long-term mean. The value of this ratio may be obtained from the probability distribution function: $$F(C) = F(0) exp [ - F(0) C/M]$$ whereF(C) is the probability or frequency that the ratio of a short-period average concentration (C) to the long-term mean (M) exceeds the valueC/M, andF(0) is a parameter dependent on the length of the short period and the position of the sampler relative to the centre-line of the plume. From (1) the peak-to-mean concentration ratio is shown to be related to the two averaging times by the expression $$P/M = 1/F(0) [lnF(0) - lnt_M /t_P ]$$ wheret _M andt _P are, respectively, the averaging times of the long-term meanM and the short-term peakP. Using recently published experimental data, Equation (1) and hence also (2) are shown to be valid for averaging timest _P from 5 s to 24 h and oft _M from 6 min to 5 yr providedt _P ?t _M .     

Application of matrix analysis in delineating sinkhole risk areas along highway (I-70 near Frederick,Maryland)

Sinkhole collapse in the area of Maryland Interstate 70 (I-70) and nearby roadways south of Frederick, Maryland, has been posing a threat to the safety of the highway operation as well as other structures. The occurrence of sinkholes is associated with intensive land development. However, the geological conditions that have been developing over the past 200 million years in the Frederick Valley control the locations of the sinkholes. Within an area of approximately 8 km², 138 sinkholes are recorded and their spatial distribution is irregular, but clustered. The clustering indicates the existence of an interaction between the sinkholes. The point pattern of sinkholes is considered to be a sample of a Gibbsian point process from which the hard-core Strauss Model is developed. The radius of influence is calculated for the recorded sinkholes which are most likely to occur within 30 m of an existing sinkhole. The stochastic analysis of the existing sinkholes is biased toward the areas with intensive land use. This bias is adjusted by considering (1) topography, (2) proximity to topographic depressions, (3) interpreted rock formation, (4) soil type, (5) geophysical anomalies, (6) proximity to geologic structures, and (7) thickness of overburden. Based on the properties of each factor, a scoring system is developed and the average relative risk score for individual 30-m segments of the study area is calculated. The areas designated by higher risk levels would have greater risk of a sinkhole collapse than the areas designated by lower risk levels. This risk assessment approach can be updated as more information becomes available.     

Analyses of organic and inorganic contaminants in Salton Sea fish

Chemical contamination of fish from the Salton Sea, a quasi-marine lake in Southern California, could adversely impact millions of birds using the Pacific Flyway and thousands of humans using the lake for recreation. Bairdiella icistia (bairdiella), Cynoscion xanthulus (orangemouth corvina), and Oreochromis spp. (tilapia) were sampled from two river mouths and two nearshore areas of the Salton Sea. Muscle tissues were analyzed for a complete suite of 14 trace metals and 53 pesticides. Fish muscle tissues had concentrations of selenium ranging between 1.89 and 2.73 microg/g wet weight. 4,4'-DDE accounted for 94% of the total DDT metabolites. Total DDTs ranged between 17.1 and 239.0 and total PCBs between 2.5 and 18.6 ng/g wet weight. PCB congeners 132, 138, 153, 168, and 180 comprised over 50% of the total PCBs. Given the potential implementation of a commercial fishing at the Salton Sea in the future, the presence of persistent organic pollutants and selenium warrants further research into the effects of these mixtures on fish populations, and on wildlife and humans consuming fish.     

Local configuration measures for categorical spatial data: binary regular lattices

This paper examines the utility of a number of pattern measures for local exploratory analysis of binary spatial data. Based on a review of existing pattern measures in cartography, geography, image analysis, and landscape ecology, two fundamental classes of such measures, termed compositional and configurational, are identified. The paper focuses on configurational measures and it is suggested that as many as five such measures (join counts, patch numbers, patch sizes, patch proximity, and distribution of the classes relative to the focal cell of the window) are required to differentiate between all possible local categorical maps. This suggestion is explored by examining aspects of the statistical behaviour (probability distributions and correlations between extreme values of pairs of measures) of a set of 12 configurational measures. Their use is also demonstrated by means of an empirical example.     

Cloud condensation nuclei measurements at Mace Head, Ireland, over the period 1994–2002

Analyses of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations (cm^− 3) measured at the Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station, near Carna, County Galway, Ireland, using a DH Associates Model M1 static thermal diffusion cloud chamber over the period from March 1994 to September 2002 are presented in this work. Air masses are defined as being ‘marine’ if they originate from a wind direction of 180–300° and ‘continental’ air masses are defined as originating from a wind direction of 45–135°. Air masses without such filtering were classified as ‘undefined’ air masses. Air masses were found to be dominated by marine sector air, re-affirming Mace Head as a baseline atmospheric research station. CCN levels for specific air masses at Mace Head were found to be comparable with earlier studies both at Mace Head and elsewhere. Monthly averaged clean marine (wind direction of 180–300° and black carbon absorption coefficient < 1.425 Mm^− 1) CCN and marine CCN varied between 15–247 cm^− 3 and 54–670 cm^− 3, respectively. As expected, significant increases in number concentration were found in continentally sourced CCN over that of marine CCN and were found to follow a log-normal distribution significantly tighter than that of clean marine air masses. No significant trend was found for CCN over the 9-year period. While polluted continental air masses showed a slight increase in CCN concentrations over the winter months, most likely due to increased fuel usage and a lower mixed boundary layer, the dominance of marine sector air arriving at Mace Head, which generally consists of background CCN concentrations, reduced seasonal differences for polluted air. Marine air showed a distinct seasonal pattern, with elevated values occurring over the spring and summer seasons. This is thought to be due to enhanced biogenic aerosol production as a result of phytoplankton bloom activity in the North Atlantic.     

Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada

This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability.     

STAMP: spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons

Research questions regarding temporal change in spatial patterns are increasingly common in geographical analysis. In this research, we explore and extend an approach to the spatial–temporal analysis of polygons that are spatially distinct and experience discrete changes though time. We present five new movement events for describing spatial processes: displacement, convergence, divergence, fragmentation and concentration. Spatial–temporal measures of events for size and direction are presented for two time periods, and multiple time periods. Size change metrics are based on area overlaps and a modified cone-based model is used for calculating polygon directional relationships. Quantitative directional measures are used to develop application specific metrics, such as an estimation of the concentration parameter for a von Mises distribution, and the directional rate of spread. The utility of the STAMP methods are demonstrated by a case study on the spread of a wildfire in northwestern Montana.