Quantifying geological uncertainty for flow and transport modeling in multi-modal heterogeneous formations

In this work, we address the problem of characterizing the heterogeneity and uncertainty of hydraulic properties for complex geological settings. Hereby, we distinguish between two scales of heterogeneity, namely the hydrofacies structure and the intrafacies variability of the hydraulic properties. We employ multiple-point geostatistics to characterize the hydrofacies architecture. The multiple-point statistics are borrowed from a training image that is designed to reflect the prior geological conceptualization. The intrafacies variability of the hydraulic properties is represented using conventional two-point correlation methods, more precisely, spatial covariance models under a multi-Gaussian spatial law. We address the different levels and sources of uncertainty in characterizing the subsurface heterogeneity, and explore their effect on groundwater flow and transport predictions. Typically, uncertainty is assessed by way of many images, termed realizations, of a fixed statistical model. However, in many cases, sampling from a fixed stochastic model does not adequately represent the space of uncertainty. It neglects the uncertainty related to the selection of the stochastic model and the estimation of its input parameters. We acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in the definition of the prior conceptual model of aquifer architecture and in the estimation of global statistics, anisotropy, and correlation scales. Spatial bootstrap is used to assess the uncertainty of the unknown statistical parameters. As an illustrative example, we employ a synthetic field that represents a fluvial setting consisting of an interconnected network of channel sands embedded within finer-grained floodplain material. For this highly non-stationary setting we quantify the groundwater flow and transport model prediction uncertainty for various levels of hydrogeological uncertainty. Results indicate the importance of accurately describing the facies geometry, especially for transport predictions.     

Influence of observed and RCM-simulated precipitation on the water discharge over the Sirba basin, Burkina Faso/Niger

The forcing of a hydrologic model (ABC) by both observed and simulated precipitation from a regional climate model (MAR) has been performed over the Sirba watershed (39,000 km²) located in the Sahelian region. Two aspects have been more specifically examined: the spatial and temporal representations of precipitation. The comparison between simulated and observed discharges—using observed rainfall datasets as forcing of the hydrologic model—has shown that the representation of daily precipitation (which is mainly convective in the Sahelian region) was not sufficiently accurate to correctly simulate the hydrologic response of the watershed. Since this response drives the soil water budget and consequently the amount of evaporation in forthcoming coupling experiments, it is thus necessary to develop more realistic infra-daily precipitation associated with convective events. A new temporal disaggregation scheme has been then developed. Considering observed as well as simulated precipitation fields, this method has significantly improved the simulated discharge at the catchment outlet. The major role played by the temporal component compared to spatial component of the precipitation has been then underlined. In addition, the present study shows the unsuitability of the simulated precipitation from the RCM to directly force a hydrologic model at infra daily timescale even if the cumulative amount and the main features of the precipitation seasonal cycle are well simulated.     

Processes,spatio‐temporal factors and measurements of current erosion in the French Southern Alps: a review

Present erosion in mountainous areas of Western Europe causes land management problems, particularly for areas located downstream of erosion zones. Except for transalpine roads and ski resorts, economic activities no longer require as much space as they did in the past. Therefore, natural reforestation has provided signi?cant protection for alpine hillslopes during the 20th century. However, extreme ?oods continue to cause severe damage in intra‐alpine valleys, as well as in piedmont and surrounding plains, making the study of present water erosion phenomena very important. Many studies have investigated the processes and factors of water erosion on slopes at both the catchment and plot scales. They have focused on rock fragmentation and transportation in different ?elds, the spatial and temporal explanatory variables, the consequences downstream (?ooding, sedimentation, river bed evolution) and the impact of ?oods. In the French Alps, present erosion has been studied in a variety of outcrops, with several recent studies conducted in ?elds such as marls, clayey deposits, molasses and moraines. These kinds of outcrops are found throughout the alpine massif, including an area of special interest on the great Jurassic black marl outcrop where badlands are frequently observable. Geomorphologists and hydrologists have been particularly interested in the strong erosion processes in marls, seeking to determine the main patterns and the impact of spatial and temporal factors on soil loss quantities. The main climatic factors of rock disaggregation were found to be the freeze–thaw and wet–dry cycles, which destroy rock cohesion, and the splash effect of rain. The principal site variables are vegetation cover, exposure and dip–slope angle. Erosion rates are two or three orders of magnitude higher on bare soils than on pastures; northern aspect slopes suffer two to four times as much soil loss as southern aspect slopes. Finally, the angle formed by the slope and the dip also determines different behaviours: erosion rates are higher when slope and dip are perpendicular than when they are parallel. The transportation agents are mostly debris ?ows and runoff caused by intense precipitation. Annual erosion depth in the marls is generally assumed to be substantial, up to 10 mm. The high value can be explained by the severity of the climatic conditions and the brittleness of the lithology, which results in numerous fractures. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Remote Sensing Observations of Effects of Mountain Blocking on Travelling Gravity-Shear Waves and Associated Clouds

Trapped Kelvin–Helmholtz (K–H) waves and vortices were monitored as they were generated immediately upwind of a mountain and driven into the barrier by a low-level jet. A stratus cloud visually revealed the embedded, propagating, gravity-shear waves. Interactions of the waves with the mountain were deciphered using remote sensing measurements of the structure, motions, and microphysics within the cloud and conceptual models based on existing theories. The observations show that the mountain acted as a dam to the flow that was primed for, but did not spontaneously induce, the waves. In response to the blocking, the waves spatially developed a pattern of formation, amplification, and breakdown between the upstream flow and the barrier, and altered the associated clouds in the process. Notably, radar signatures of velocity variance depicted organized, intertwined ribbons of relatively large vorticity within the wave layer. These provided measured evidence of the vortex sheet and streamwise vortex tubes predicted by advanced K–Hinstability theory, the three-dimensional version of Scorer's `stripe', the layer of rotational fluid between opposed flows that led to the wave generation. A theory of resonant interaction of wave trains, but with blocking imposed, appears to explain the internal structure of the pile-up of the flow and wave amplification approaching the barrier. Evolution of the supporting atmospheric thermal structure and introduction of a boundary-layer flow reversal follow a current model of blocking, although some features may have developed more directly from wave-driven mixing. The remote sensors also measured the influence of the waves on the cloud liquid water, including a cumulative enlargement of droplets as they were carried through a series of waves.     

A thick reflection nebula illuminated by a power law

We present the results of modelling the energy distribution of a power law reflected by a dusty cloud. We explore in a fully consistent manner the case in which the reflecting nebula is of considerable optical depth. We apply the model to the observations of the detached emission line cloud at 8 kpc from the nucleus of Pks 2152-69 for whichcontinuum flux measurements exist up to the far UV. Our results for the thick case qualitatively agree with the results of Fosburyet al. (1991) (who studied the optically thin case) in that we also need a population of grain sizes dominated by small grains (smaller on average than in models of the standard extinction curve) in order to reproduce the energy distribution of the detached continuum source. We model the high excitation emission line spectrum of the cloud using the code MAPPINGS. Photoionization calculations in which the ionized gas contains the reflecting dust can easily reproduce the high electronic temperature as well as theapparent case B Ly/H ratio observed in the detached cloud, confirming that dust is a workable hypothesis for explaining the Ly emission and the blue extended light detected around many high redhift radio galaxies.     

Structure and emplacement of granite plutons in the Paleoproterozoic crust of Eastern Burkina Faso: rheological implications

The Fada N′Gourma area in Burkina Faso is underlain by Paleoproterozoic rocks that make the northeastern West-African Craton. This region is composed of NE-trending volcano-sedimentary belts and foliated tonalites, affected by several shear zones. A generation of younger, ∼2100 Ma-old, non-foliated biotite-bearing granites intrudes the former rock units. We have investigated the younger granite pluton of Kouare that was previously considered as forming a single body with the pluton of Satenga to the west, a pluton which likely belongs to the ∼20 Ma more recent Tenkodogo-Yamba batholith. Magnetic fabric measurements have been combined with microstructural observations and the analysis of field and aeromagnetic data. The granite encloses angular enclaves of the host tonalites. Magmatic microstructures are preserved inside the pluton and solid-state, high-temperature deformation features are ubiquitous at its periphery. The presence of steeply plunging lineations in the pluton of Kouare and its adjacent host-rocks suggests that large volumes of granitic magmas became crystallized while they were ascending through the crust that was softened and steepened close to the contact. Around Kouare, the foliation in the host tonalites conforms with a map-scale, Z-shaped fold in between NNE-trending shear zones, implying a bulk clockwise rotation of the material contained in-between the shear zones, including the emplacing pluton. Regionally, the Fada N′Gourma area is concluded to result from NW-shortening associated with transcurrent shearing and vertical transfer of granitic magmas. This study concludes that the ∼2200 Myears old juvenile crust of Burkina Faso was brittle before the intrusion of the biotite-granites, became softened close to them and that gravity-driven and regional scale wrench tectonics were active together.     

The precession phase of hydrological variability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool during the past 400 ka

The low-latitude hydrological cycle is a key climate parameter on different timescales, as it contributes to various feedback processes. Modelling studies suggest that the interhemispheric insolation contrast is the major factor controlling the cycle, although the influence of glacial conditions and the phase relationships relative to insolation forcing remain undetermined. In this work, we studied precipitation variability over Papua New Guinea (PNG, 3°S) for the past 400 ka using terrigenous fractions transported by the Sepik River to the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). A multi-decadal to centennial resolution of the elemental content was obtained using X-ray fluorescence scanning of a marine sediment core using an age model based on ¹⁴C dates and benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O. Indicators of the coarse river particulate fraction (bulk and CaCO₃-free basis Ti concentrations, the log intensity ratios of Ti/K and Ti/Ca) displayed a dominant 23 ka periodicity without a clear glacial–interglacial trend. Our precipitation records showed a tight relationship with local summer insolation (3°S, January) with time-dependent lag of 0 to 4 ka. They were generally in anti-phase for U–Th dated Chinese speleothem δ¹⁸O records. Based on an analogy to modern climate, we propose that precipitation over PNG was primarily determined by interhemispheric insolation contrast, and the contribution of austral fall/winter precipitation added second-order variability that formed the lags. For the last four climate cycles, the WPWP hydrological cycle was closely associated with the eastern Asian monsoon, and the influence of glacial conditions on the low-latitude hydrological cycle was estimated to be limited.     

An integrated approach for investigating geomorphic response to extreme events: methodological framework and application to the October 2011 flood in the Magra River catchment,Italy

A high‐magnitude flash flood, which took place on 25 October 2011 in the Magra River catchment (1717 km²), central‐northern Italy, is used to illustrate some aspects of the geomorphic response to the flood. An overall methodological framework is described for using interlinked observations and analyses of the geomorphic impacts of an extreme event. The following methods and analyses were carried out: (i) hydrological and hydraulic analysis of the event; (ii) sediment delivery by event landslide mapping; (iii) identification and estimation of wood recruitment, deposition, and budgeting; (iv) interpretation of morphological processes by analysing fluvial deposits; (v) remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) analysis of channel width changes. In response to the high‐magnitude hydrological event, a large number of landslides occurred, consisting of earth flows, soil slips, and translational slides, and a large quantity of wood was recruited, in most part deriving from floodplain erosion caused by bank retreat and channel widening. The most important impact of the flood event within the valley floor was an impressive widening of the overall channel bed and the reactivation of wide portions of the pre‐event floodplain. Along the investigated (unconfined or partly confined) streams (total investigated length of 93.5 km), the channel width after the flood was up to about 20 times the channel width before the event. The study has shown that a synergic use of different methods and types of evidence provides fundamental information for characterizing and understanding the geomorphic effects of intense flood events. The prediction of geomorphic response to a flood event is still challenging and many limitations exist; however a robust geomorphological analysis can contribute to the identification of the most critical reaches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Morphology and distribution of dolines on ultramafic rocks from airborne LiDAR data: the case of southern Grande Terre in New Caledonia (SW Pacific)

Dolines are closed geomorphological depressions which are surface manifestations of karstic systems. Usually developed on limestones, they also typify the morphology of the New Caledonian landscape, particularly on the southern massif of the main island (known as Massif du Sud). The specificity of dolines here lies in their development on ultramafic rocks. They are evidences of subsidence, suffosion and collapse phenomena resulting from dissolution weathering of peridotites. However, extensive underground drainage systems are still not yet recognized. Semi‐automatic mapping of dolines is carried out on a 148 km² area of the Massif du Sud from a high accuracy LiDAR digital elevation model. In this area 8601 dolines ranging from 1 m² to 2 km² are identified and morphologically characterized with precision. Most are small, shallow and round‐shaped, yet more complex shapes are locally observed. Size distribution analysis allows the setting of a threshold of 20 000 m² above which surface processes rather than chemical weathering control doline evolution. Doline density analysis reveals high concentrations on flat areas where ferricrete overlies the complete weathering profile, especially in the case of elevated rainy watersheds. Dolines are aligned and elongated along a north 135° ± 5° major fracture direction, which is inherited from the obduction of the Pacific Plate upper mantle in the Late Eocene. Finally, we propose a pioneering morphometric typology of dolines that provides important clues as to pseudokarstic activity. We define collapse, bowl‐shaped and flat bottom dolines. Collapse and bowl‐shaped dolines are assumed to denote active pseudokarst. They may widen and deepen, or eventually be filled by sediments. They are distinguished from flat bottom dolines that are partially to completely filled, which suggests that they are associated with paleo‐pseudokarsts. However the groundwater flow paths associated with the genesis and evolution of dolines must be clarified, thus collapse and bowl‐shaped dolines should be hydrologically monitored. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.