An agent-based evacuation model for the 2011 Brisbane City-scale riverine flood

In this study, an agent-based model is proposed in order to provide new insights into the policy analysis and strategy assessment of city-scale evacuation management. The proposed model is suitable for assessment of the influence of different departure times and communications among peer evacuees on the number of residents at risk who arrive at official shelters. A case study is applied to build a simulation model for the coastal city of Brisbane in Australia. The Brisbane River catchment experiences regular flooding almost every year; the second severest flood since the twentieth century occurred in 2011. During that event, over 15,000 properties were inundated and around 3600 households evacuated in metropolitan Brisbane alone. Making use of high-performance computing clusters, the evacuation simulation was coupled with results from a validated hydrodynamic model to test a variety of escaping scenarios based on the 2011 flood situation. This case study demonstrates the proposed model’s capacity to represent the dynamic evacuation process and also shows that the model is able to help develop flood emergency plans and evaluate response measures through exploring key elements in a range of scenarios.     

Application on Floor Water Inrush Evaluation Based on AHP Variation Coefficient Method with GIS

The prediction and prevention of floor water inrush is directly related to the safety of the coal mine production. The previous evaluation method of floor water inrush was more one-sided and lacked main control factors related to mining conditions. In order to evaluate the floor water inrush more accurately, under the project background of geological data of Wanglou coal mine, stope width, mining depth, fault scale index, water pressure, water abundance and thickness of aquifer were selected as main controlling factors of floor water inrush. Combined with the subjective weight analytical hierarchy process and the objective weight variation coefficient method, the weight coefficients corresponding to the main controlling factors were obtained respectively. The thematic map of the risk assessment of coal seam floor water inrush was drawn by combining the constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model and geographic information system. The results show that: ① according to the actual geological data of mine, two fault related factors were removed. And stope width and mining depth were increased as the main controlling factors to evaluate floor water inrush. It is easier to compare and calculate the weight of evaluation factors. ② The constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model can comprehensively evaluate the risk of floor water inrush. And the results of the evaluation are more accurate. ③ The related thematic maps can directly reflect the risk of floor water inrush, which is of guiding significance for the prediction and prevention of coal seam floor water inrush.     

A review of advances in China’s flash flood early-warning system

This paper summarizes the main flash flood early-warning systems of America, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan China and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. The latest development in flash flood prevention is also presented. China’s flash flood prevention system involves three stages. Herein, the warning methods and achievements in the first two stages are introduced in detail. Based on the worldwide experience of flash flood early-warning systems, the general research idea of the third stage is proposed from the viewpoint of requirements for flash flood prevention and construction progress of the next stage in China. Real-time dynamic warning systems can be applied to the early-warning platform at four levels (central level, provincial level, municipal level, and county level) . Through this, soil moisture, peak flow, and water level can be calculated in real-time using distributed hydrological models, and then flash flood warning indexes can be computed based on defined thresholds of runoff and water level. A compound warning index (CWI) can be applied to regions where rainfall and water level are measured by simple equipment. In this manner, flash-flood-related factors such as rainfall intensity and antecedent and cumulative rainfall depths can be determined using the CWI method. The proposed methodology for the third stage could support flash flood prevention measures in the 13th 5-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (2016–2020). The research achievements will serve as a guidance for flash flood monitoring and warning as well as flood warning in medium and small rivers.     

Carbon dioxide emission reduction quota allocation study on Chinese provinces based on two-stage Shapley information entropy model

Chinese central government made a commitment to achieve a 40–45% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO₂) per unit of GDP by 2020 compared with 2005. This targeted reduction was allocated averagely among all the provinces rather than individually according to different situations of each province. Though some research has been done regarding this rough allocation, two shortcomings in previous studies exist: Firstly, CO₂ marginal abatement cost (MAC) has been ignored as one of the CO₂ emission reduction allocation indexes. Secondly, either subjective or objective method has been used rather than comprehensively of both subjective and objective method to calculate the weight of each index in the previous studies. In order to fill the gaps, this paper builds a two-stage Shapley information entropy model to allocate CO₂ emission reduction quota among the Chinese provinces based on the equity and efficiency principles. Afterward, three CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation scenarios have been proposed. The results show that the CO₂ MAC is an indispensable index in CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation, because its value of CO₂ Shapley information entropy is the highest among five indexes. CO₂ emission reduction quota of lower-MAC provinces should be allocated larger, while the quota of higher-MAC provinces should be allocated smaller. Therefore, two suggested policies have been proposed: First, differential CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation should be proposed. Second, synergetic development should be promoted.     

Geochemical Characteristics and Tectonic Significance of Aoyougou Group Basalts in Western North Qilian

The North Qilian orogenic belt is a typical plate suture zone, which is studded with numerous different sizes of fragments of micro-continental crust consisting of pre-Sinian metamorphic rocks and the North Qilian orogenic belt provides important study carrier for studying the pre-orogenic tectonic process of the North Qilian. The relatively complete volcanic-clastic-carbonate rocks formation of Zhulongguan Group, Changchengian System, Mesoproterozoic are distributed in the Kawa-Qiqing area, Western North Qilian orogenic belt. Geochemical characteristics of the Aoyougou Group basalts in the North Qilian indicated that the contents of major element were relatively stable, high K₂O contents(4.27%~6.07%), TFe₂O₃(10.49%~13.01%),TiO₂(1.96%~2.90%)and middle MgO(5.37%~6.71%,Mg^# 48~51), CaO(2.57%~5.51%)content. Thus, the Aoyougou Group basalts belong to potassium alkaline basalt. The contents of Cr and Ni of the basalts decreased with the decreasing of Mg^#, and there was a positive correlation between CaO and CaO/Al₂O₃, Furthermore, the Eu anomaly of samples was slightly negative, high contents of high field strength elements (HFSE, Nb, Ta, Ti), and the ratios of Gd/Yb(2.5~3.0), Zr/Y(8.6~10.2), Ta/Yb(0.96~1.23), Ti/Yb(5 074~6 021), Zr/Yb(81~97), Ce/Nb(1.87), Zr/Nb(6.41)indicated that the Aoyougou Group basalts had obvious OIB-type magmatic affinity. In combination with the regional geological background, the study results showed that Aoyougou Group alkaline basalt generated from deep enrichment mantle similar to the source of OIB, with fractional crystallization of olivine and monoclinic pyroxene and a certain degree of contamination of continental crust in the process of magmatism, formed in the background of continental rift, might response to the Proterozoic Columbia supercontinent rifting, which further provides important petrological evidences for the relationship between North China Craton rifting events and Columbia supercontinent rifting during Proterozoic.     

Advances and Trends in Atmospheric Measurement by Smartphones*

With the development and popularization of smartphones and embedded sensors, a non-professional atmospheric measurement method by using smartphones carried by the public has been proposed recently. Without extra dedicated instrument, this method has many advantages, such as low hardware cost, high spatio-temporal resolution, and wide coverage, and it can supplement the professional atmospheric measurement methods, which has broad applications in the meteorological operation, scientific research, public service, and other fields. At present, the research on the non-professional atmospheric measurement in China is limited. In order to make full use of this method, this paper briefly outlined the states of existing smartphones and embedded sensors, highlighted the measurement of precipitation, air temperature, pressure, aerosols, and radiation by smartphones. To promote the development of smartphones for atmospheric measurement, future research should focus on mechanism study, available sources exploration, data quality control, big data processing, joining and matching with operation, research and service, etc.     

贵州泥堡金矿床构造蚀变体岩相学及地球化学特征

贵州泥堡金矿构造蚀变体(SBT)为产出于茅口组(P_2m)和龙潭组(P_3l)或峨眉山玄武岩(P_3β)之间沉积间断面-不整合界面附近的一套硅质蚀变岩石组合。采用光学显微镜及ICP-MS研究SBT样品岩相学及元素地球化学特征,结果显示,SBT矿石样品中主要矿物有石英、黄铁矿、褐铁矿、萤石、白云石和辉锑矿等,蚀变类型主要为黄铁矿化、白云石化和硅化,微观结构主要为砂状、岩屑-凝灰碎屑结构、交代结构等,构造主要有浸染状、块状、角砾状、条带状和脉状构造。SBT微量元素标准化曲线以Au、As、Sb、Hg、Te的强烈富集,Li、Sc、Cr的亏损和Cd、Ta的富集为特征。稀土元素CI球粒陨石标准化配分模式图表现为轻稀土富集的右倾型,LREE/HREE为6. 98～19. 91,"四分组"效应明显,重稀土分馏不明显,解释为受热液作用强烈; SBT微量元素标准化图及稀土元素配分曲线均表现出与围岩相似,表明继承了原岩的元素组成;δEu为0. 80～1. 84,显示Eu从明显负异常到明显的正异常;δCe为0. 72～1. 25,显示Ce从明显负异常到弱正异常,认为流体来源于深部或至少经历过对富含斜长石源区的水-岩反应,而不是含矿地层的改造热液。     

Geochronology,Geochemistry and Petrogenesis of the Pungco Ophiolite,TibetEI北大核心CSCD

Although the middle section of the Bangong-Nujiang suture zone has been intensively investigated, its tectonic framework and evolution is still controversy. The Pungco ophiolite has a relative complete ophiolitic complex, which is an ideal specimen for studying this tricky problem. LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating of zircons from the diabasic rock yielded an age of 159.0±2.1 Ma. This age suggests that the Pungco ophiolite was formed in the Late Jurassic, indicating the development of the Late Jurassic ophiolite in the third ophiolitic subzone. The whole-rock major and trace element compositions of diabasic and basaltic rocks exhibit mixed arc and N-MORB geochemical characteristics. Two diabasic samples have (87Sr/86Sr)i values of 0.7055 and 0.7063 and εNd(t) values of 11.28 and 11.84, respectively. The geochemical signatures and formation age of the Pungco ophiolite suggest that this ophiolite was probably produced in an active continental fore-arc setting. It originated from a N-MORB-like depleted mantle source with the involvement of subducted-slab fluids. Considering the regional geological background, the Pungco ophiolite was likely generated during the southward subduction of the Bangong-Nujiang Tethyan oceanic lithosphere beneath the Lhasa terrane, and belongs to a regional archipelagic arc-basin system together with the other Early Jurassic-Early Cretaceous ophiolites from the northern Tibet Lake district. © 2018, Science Press. All right reserved.     

Satellite estimates and subpixel variability of rainfall in a semi-arid grassland

卫星估雨精度的不确定性受到当地降雨类型和像元内降雨非均匀性影响,而结合这两个关键因素开展半干旱草原卫星估雨的研究有限.2009年夏,我们在中国锡林郭勒半干旱草原用多部微雨雷达和雨量计构建了9 km卫星像元降雨观测网,观测了像元内降雨非均匀性(空间变异系数CV),并评估了卫星估雨精度.结果表明:(1)CV值受像元内平均降雨量,降雨类型,降雨云面积及移向等影响,如高Cv值的降雨过程大多为平均降雨量小,对流性降雨过程,降雨云边缘像元CV值较高;(2)TRMM 3B42V7卫星估雨产品适用性较好,CMORPH和PERSIANN次之,但TRMM 3B42V7易在半干旱草原湖泊处高估降雨.