Capturing the multifaceted phenomena of socioeconomic vulnerability

Vulnerability and disaster risk assessment has been evaluated from different perspectives with focus on global or national scale. There is a lack of methodologies on city scale, which are able to capture inner-city disparities with regard to socioeconomic aspects. Therefore, the main objective was to develop a transparent and comprehensive indicator-based approach which is flexible in terms of data availability and is not tied to a specific case study side. This research proposes two flexible methodological approaches on how to perform socioeconomic vulnerability assessment. Susceptibility, Coping and Adaptation are the main elements of a modular hierarchical structure to capture the societal sphere of vulnerability. The first method is completely based on official census data at block scale. The second method is an expansion and includes data derived from a field survey to add components of risk perception. The proposed methodologies were developed and applied in the city of Genoa (Italy). The results are displayed spatially explicit on maps. Furthermore statistical analysis, to reveal the driving forces which influence vulnerability, was performed. The census-based approach revealed that vulnerability is forced along the river by the inherent susceptibility, as well as the lack of adaptation. The two approaches can be used effectively in gaining different insights. The flexibility of the framework proved to be suitable to the objective of the research. However, the values computed in this research do not claim completeness, and the aim was to provide useful information for stakeholders in decision making process to reduce vulnerability and risk.     

How Well Do Restored Intertidal Oyster Reefs Support Key Biogeochemical Properties in a Coastal Lagoon?

The restoration of dead/degraded oyster reefs is increasingly pursued worldwide to reestablish harvestable populations or renew ecosystem services. Evidence suggests that oysters can improve water quality, but less is known about the role of associated benthic sediments in promoting biogeochemical processes, such as nutrient cycling and burial. There is also limited understanding of if, or how long postrestoration, a site functions like a natural reef. This study investigated key biogeochemical properties (e.g., physiochemical properties, nutrient pools, microbial community size and activity) in the sediments of dead reefs; 1-, 4-, and 7-year-old restored reefs; and natural reference reefs of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, in Mosquito Lagoon (FL, USA). Results indicated that most of the measured biogeochemical properties (dissolved organic carbon (C), NH₄ ⁺, total C, total nitrogen (N), and the activity of major extracellular enzymes involved in C, N, and phosphorus (P) cycling) increased significantly by 1-year postrestoration, relative to dead reefs, and then remained fairly constant as the reefs continued to age. Few differences were observed in biogeochemical properties between restored reefs of any age (1 to 7 years) and natural reference reefs. Variability among reefs of the same treatment category was often correlated with differences in the number of live oysters, reef thickness, and/or the availability of C and N in the sediments. Overall, this study demonstrates the role of live intertidal oyster reefs as biogeochemical hot spots for nutrient cycling and burial and the rapidity (within 1 year) with which biogeochemical properties can be reestablished following successful restoration.     

Were last glacial climate events simultaneous between Greenland and France? A quantitative comparison using non‐tuned chronologies

Several large abrupt climate fluctuations during the last glacial have been recorded in Greenland ice cores and archives from other regions. Often these Dansgaard–Oeschger events are assumed to have been synchronous over wide areas, and then used as tie‐points to link chronologies between the proxy archives. However, it has not yet been tested independently whether or not these events were indeed synchronous over large areas. Here, we compare Dansgaard–Oeschger‐type events in a well‐dated record from southeastern France with those in Greenland ice cores. Instead of assuming simultaneous climate events between both archives, we keep their age models independent. Even these well‐dated archives possess large chronological uncertainties that prevent us from inferring synchronous climate events at decadal to multi‐centennial time scales. If possible, comparisons between proxy archives should be based on independent, non‐tuned time‐scales. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chaotic quasi-collision trajectories in the 3-centre problem

We study a particular kind of chaotic dynamics for the planar 3-centre problem on small negative energy level sets. We know that chaotic motions exist, if we make the assumption that one of the centres is far away from the other two (see Bolotin and Negrini, J Differ Equ 190:539–558, 2003): this result has been obtained by the use of the Poincaré-Melnikov theory. Here we change the assumption on the third centre: we do not make any hypothesis on its position, and we obtain a perturbation of the 2-centre problem by assuming its intensity to be very small. Then, for a dense subset of possible positions of the perturbing centre in \mathbbR²{\mathbb{R}^2} , we prove the existence of uniformly hyperbolic invariant sets of periodic and chaotic almost collision orbits by the use of a general result of Bolotin and MacKay (Celest Mech Dyn Astron 77:49–75, 77:49–75, 2000; Celest Mech Dyn Astron 94(4):433–449, 2006). To apply it, we must preliminarily construct chains of collision arcs in a proper way. We succeed in doing that by the classical regularisation of the 2-centre problem and the use of the periodic orbits of the regularised problem passing through the third centre.     

Coupled thermal-orbital evolution of the early Moon

Coupled thermal-orbital histories of early lunar evolution are considered in a simple model. We consider a plagioclase lid, overlying a magma ocean, overlying a solid mantle. Tidal dissipation occurs in the plagioclase lid and heat transport is by conduction and melt migration. We find that large orbital eccentricities can be obtained in this model. We discuss possible consequences of this phase of large eccentricities for the shape of the Moon and geochronology of lunar samples. We find that the orbit can pass through the shape solution of Garrick-Bethell et al. (Garrick-Bethell, I., Wisdom, J., Zuber, M. [2006]. Science 313, 652), but we argue that the shape cannot be maintained against elastic deformation as the orbit continues to evolve.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.     

Small-area estimation of land cover statistics by post-stratification of a national area frame survey

The objective of this paper is to examine a method for estimation of land cover statistics for local environments from available area frame surveys of larger, surrounding areas. The method is a simple version of the small-area estimation methodology. The starting point is a national area frame survey of land cover. This survey is post-stratified using a coarse land cover map based on topographic maps and segmentation of satellite images. The approach is to describe the land cover composition of each stratum and subsequently use the results to calculate land cover statistics for a smaller area where the relative distribution of the strata is known. The method was applied to a mountain environment in Gausdal in Eastern Norway and the result was compared to reference data from a complete in situ land cover map of the study area. The overall correlation (Pearson’s rho) between the observed and the estimated land cover figures was r = 0.95. The method does not produce a map of the target area and the estimation error was large for a few of the land cover classes. The overall conclusion is, however, that the method is applicable when the objective is to produce land cover statistics and the interest is the general composition of land cover classes - not the precise estimate of each class. The method will be applied in outfield pasture management in Norway, where it offers a cost-efficient way to screen the management units and identify local areas with a land cover composition suitable for grazing. The limited resources available for in situ land cover mapping can then be allocated efficiently to in-depth studies of the areas with the highest grazing potential. It is also expected that the method can be used to compile land cover statistics for other purposes as well, provided that the motivation is to describe the overall land cover composition and not to provide exact estimates for the individual land cover classes.     

Magnetic field modulated dust streams from Jupiter in interplanetary space

High speed dust streams emanating from near Jupiter were first discovered by the Ulysses spacecraft in 1992. Since then the phenomenon has been re-observed by Galileo in 1995, Cassini in 2000, and Ulysses in 2004. The dust grains are expected to be charged to a potential of , which is sufficient to allow the planet's magnetic field to accelerate them away from the planet, where they are subsequently influenced by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). A similar phenomenon was observed near Saturn by Cassini. Here, we report and analyze simultaneous dust, IMF and solar wind data for all dust streams from the two Ulysses Jupiter flybys. We find that compression regions (CRs) in the IMF – regions of enhanced magnetic field – precede most dust streams. Furthermore, the duration of a dust stream is roughly comparable with that of the precedent CR, and the occurrence of a dust stream and the occurrence of the previous CR are separated by a time interval that depends on the distance to Jupiter. The intensity of the dust streams and their precedent CRs are also correlated, but this correlation is only evident at distances from the planet no greater than 2 AU. Combining these observations, we argue that CRs strongly affect dust streams, probably by deflecting dust grain trajectories, so that they can reach the spacecraft and be detected by its dust sensor.     

Effects of climate change and extreme events on forest communities in the European North

The European north is increasingly affected by changes in climate and climate variability. These changes and their causes are global in scope but specific impacts vary considerably between different regions. Recent incidents and events show that forest-resource based regions have difficulties in alleviating adverse effects of these changes. Also, the future socio-economic impact is to date unexplored. Norrbotten in Sweden, Lappi in Finland and Arkhangelsk oblast in Russia are regions that differ significantly in terms of their socio-economic characteristics and capacities. A modified employment multiplier model is used to predict future changes. Scenarios of changing forest resources provide quantitative estimations of the sensitivity of regional employment. These estimates are used to assess and discuss the adaptive capacities of the regions. Results show that Arkhangelsk oblast is more vulnerable to climate variability than Norrbotten and Lappi. This is due to the continued dependency on natural resources in combination with different capacities to counteract negative effects or to take advantage of the opportunities offered by climate change in this region.     

Sectoral approaches to improve regional carbon budgets

Humans utilise about 40% of the earth’s net primary production (NPP) but the products of this NPP are often managed by different sectors, with timber and forest products managed by the forestry sector and food and fibre products from croplands and grasslands managed by the agricultural sector. Other significant anthropogenic impacts on the global carbon cycle include human utilization of fossil fuels and impacts on less intensively managed systems such as peatlands, wetlands and permafrost. A great deal of knowledge, expertise and data is available within each sector. We describe the contribution of sectoral carbon budgets to our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Whilst many sectors exhibit similarities for carbon budgeting, some key differences arise due to differences in goods and services provided, ecology, management practices used, land-management personnel responsible, policies affecting land management, data types and availability, and the drivers of change. We review the methods and data sources available for assessing sectoral carbon budgets, and describe some of key data limitations and uncertainties for each sector in different regions of the world. We identify the main gaps in our knowledge/data, show that coverage is better for the developed world for most sectors, and suggest how sectoral carbon budgets could be improved in the future. Research priorities include the development of shared protocols through site networks, a move to full carbon accounting within sectors, and the assessment of full greenhouse gas budgets.