Using Sequential Self-Calibration Method to Identify Conductivity Distribution: Conditioning on Tracer Test data

An iterative inverse method, the sequential self-calibration method, is developed for mapping spatial distribution of a hydraulic conductivity field by conditioning on nonreactive tracer breakthrough curves. A streamline-based, semi-analytical simulator is adopted to simulate solute transport in a heterogeneous aquifer. The simulation is used as the forward modeling step. In this study, the hydraulic conductivity is assumed to be a deterministic or random variable. Within the framework of the streamline-based simulator, the efficient semi-analytical method is used to calculate sensitivity coefficients of the solute concentration with respect to the hydraulic conductivity variation. The calculated sensitivities account for spatial correlations between the solute concentration and parameters. The performance of the inverse method is assessed by two synthetic tracer tests conducted in an aquifer with a distinct spatial pattern of heterogeneity. The study results indicate that the developed iterative inverse method is able to identify and reproduce the large-scale heterogeneity pattern of the aquifer given appropriate observation wells in these synthetic cases.     

The Tau Model for Data Redundancy and Information Combination in Earth Sciences: Theory and Application

Many decision-making processes in the Earth sciences require the combination of multiple data originating from diverse sources. These data are often indirect and uncertain, and their combination would call for a probabilistic approach. These data are also partially redundant with each other or with all others taken jointly. This overlap in information arises due to a variety of reasons—because the data arises from the same geology, because they originate from the same location or the same measurement device, etc. The proposed tau model combines partially redundant data, each taking the form of a prior probability for the event being assessed to occur given that single datum. The parameters of that tau model measure the additional contribution brought by any single datum over that of all previously considered data; they are data sequence-dependent and also data value-dependent. Data redundancy depends on the sequence in which the data is considered and also on the data values themselves. However, for a given sequence, averaging the tau model parameters over all possible data values leads to exact analytical expressions and corresponding approximations and inference avenues. Information on multiple-point connectivity of permeability arrives from core data, well-test data and seismic data which are defined over varying supports with complex redundancy between these information sources. In order to compute these tau weights for determining connectivity, one needs a model of data redundancy, here expressed as a vectorial training image (Ti) constructed using a prior conceptual knowledge of geology and the physics of data measurement. From such a vectorial Ti, the tau weights can be computed exactly. Neglecting data redundancy leads to an over-compounding of individual data information and the possible risk of making extreme decisions.     

Group Time Delay in the Reflection of P-Polarized Electromagnetic Plane Waves at a Stratigraphic Interface

The group time delay (GTD) formulae of quasi-total reflection of inhomogeneous P-polarized electromagnetic waves (P-PEW, whose electric field parallels to the plane of incidence), caused by the Goos–Hänchen effect, is derived by the phase shift of the wave. A numerical example where the frequency equals to 1 GHz is given. The curves of calculating results show that there are three discontinuous points at the critical angle of phase shift vector, the critical angle of attenuation vector and 90^○. When the angle of incidence is equal to one of these three angles, the GTD will become infinite, and the electromagnetic wave will propagate along the interface. The GTD will be very large, when the angle of incidence is close to one of these three angles. The results indicate that there is an important relationship between the two critical angles and the conductivity and permittivity of the two strata, and that the GTD has an important relationship with the angle of incidence. These results can be used to determine the lithology of the strata and to delimit the interfaces of strata more effectively. It is suggested that this research may prove useful in electromagnetic logging analysis and, perhaps, in the design of logging instruments.     

Stability Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Differential Frost Heave

Differential frost heave is often implicated in the formation of patterned ground in regions subject to recurrent freezing and thawing. A linear stability analysis (LSA) indicates that a continuum model of frost heave is linearly unstable under typical natural freezing conditions of silty-clay soils. A two-dimensional non-linear numerical analysis corroborates the frozen time LSA results, and also indicates the importance of non-linear and time-dependent terms that ultimately lead to a preferred mode, which the LSA fails to predict. Instability of the one-dimensional solution occurs at shallow freezing depths and near-zero surface loads when positive perturbations in the ice content at the freezing front lead to a concomitant increase in thermomolecular pressure and upward ice velocity. Differential frost heave can then occur because of the increased heat flux from the perturbed surfaces. A three-dimensional model using random initial surface perturbations indicates that regular surface patterns will evolve with a length scale in the order of 2–4 meters, which corresponds quite closely with naturally-occurring non-sorted patterned ground.     

Non-Linear Theory and Power-Law Models for Information Integration and Mineral Resources Quantitative Assessments

Singular physical or chemical processes may result in anomalous amounts of energy release or mass accumulation that, generally, are confined to narrow intervals in space or time. Singularity is a property of different types of non-linear natural processes including cloud formation, rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, landslides, earthquakes, wildfires, and mineralization. The end products of these non-linear processes can be modeled as fractals or multifractals. Hydrothermal processes in the Earth’s crust can result in ore deposits characterized by high concentrations of metals with fractal or multifractal properties. Here we show that the non-linear properties of the end products of singular mineralization processes can be applied for prediction of undiscovered mineral deposits and for quantitative mineral resource assessment, whether for mineral exploration or for regional, national and global planning for mineral resource utilization. In addition to the general theory and framework for the non-linear mineral resources assessment, this paper focuses on several power-law models proposed for characterizing non-linear properties of mineralization and for geoinformation extraction and integration. The theories, methods, and computer system discussed in this paper were validated using a case study dealing with hydrothermal Au mineral potential in southern Nova Scotia, Canada.     

Inversely-Mapped Analytical Solutions for Flow Patterns around and within Inclined Elliptic Inclusions in Fluid-Saturated Rocks

In this paper, an inverse mapping is used to transform the previously-derived analytical solutions from a local elliptical coordinate system into a conventional Cartesian coordinate system. This enables a complete set of exact analytical solutions to be derived rigorously for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function, and excess pore-fluid pressure around and within buried inclined elliptic inclusions in pore-fluid-saturated porous rocks. To maximize the application range of the derived analytical solutions, the focal distance of an ellipse is used to represent the size of the ellipse, while the length ratio of the long axis to the short one is used to represent the geometrical shape of the ellipse. Since the present analytical solutions are expressed in a conventional Cartesian coordinate system, it is convenient to investigate, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pressure around and within many different families of buried inclined elliptic inclusions. The major advantage in using the present analytical solution is that they can be conveniently computed in a global Cartesian coordinate system, which is widely used in many scientific and engineering computations. As an application example, the present analytical solutions have been used to investigate how the dip angle of an inclined elliptic inclusion affects the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pore-fluid pressure when the permeability ratio of the elliptic inclusion is of finite but nonzero values.     

震灾保险研究中的软科学问题

震灾保险研究融会着自然科学与社会科学的紧密结合和相互渗透,基于这一认识,本文联系震灾保险的社会属性,分析并指出这一险种的非强制性质;保护应用的权益与责任;对社会不规范投保行为的制约;正确理解“与国际惯例接轨”、地震系统的协作模式、政府部门的政策导向等等带有根本性的问题,以启示人们把握研究的大方向,从而加快我国该项研究的实用化进程。     

Spatial orientation of the spin vectors of the disk galaxies in the Virgo cluster I. A catalogue of the disk galaxies in the Virgo cluster

Based on four UK Schmidt Telescope (UKST) IIIa-j direct plates which had been digitized by the Automated Plate Measuring System (APM), a detailed identification of the disk galaxies in the Virgo cluster has been carried out. The certain and possible member galaxies are mainly selected from the updated Catalogue of 2096 Galaxies in the Virgo Cluster Area (VCC). The area of this identification covers a 85 square degree region centered on this cluster. As a result, we compiled a new catalogue of 340 certain and possible member disk galaxies, including 85 lenticulars (SO), 136 spirals (S) and 119 irregulars (Irr), where the APM-measured values of the position angle (P.A.) and diameters of 299 disk galaxies are provided. For at least 149 galaxies, the values of the P.A. and diameters are published for the first time.Comparison between the APM-measured P.A. and diameters of galaxies and those given by the Uppsala General Catalog of Galaxies (UGC) demonstrates the reliability of our data. The statistical properties and completeness of this database are also discussed. Compared with the UGC-given P.A. and diameters which were determined by eyes, our data has no selection effect owing to the instrument measurements. Within our searching region, this might be the largest and relatively complete photometric database published so far for investigating the spatial orientation of the spin vectors of galaxies in the Virgo cluster.     

Propagation of MHD body and surface waves in magnetically structured regions of the solar atmosphere

The fact that magnetically structured regions exist in the solar atmosphere has been known for a number of years. It has been suggested that different kinds of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves can be efficiently damped in these regions and that the dissipated wave energy may be responsible for the observed enhancement in radiative losses. From a theoretical point of view, an important task would be to investigate the propagation and dissipation of MHD waves in these highly structured regions of the solar atmosphere. In this paper, we study the behavior of MHD body and surface waves in a medium with either a single or double (slab) magnetic interface by use of a nonlinear, two-dimensional, time-dependent, ideal MHD numerical model constructed on the basis of a Lagrangean grid and semi-implicit scheme. The processes of wave confinement and wave energy leakage are discussed in detail. It is shown that the obtained results depend strongly on the type of perturbations imposed on the interface or slab and on the plasma parameter, . The relevance of the obtained results to the heating problem of the upper parts of the solar atmosphere is also discussed.     

Information structure analysis for quantitative assessment of mineral resources and the discovery of a silver deposit

We propose an information-structure-analysis (ISA) method to quantify the correlations between quantitative and qualitative variables as well as within each type of variable. This method is applied to the evaluation of mineral resources in the western Zheijiang Province of China. The district contains a number of silver-bearing Fe–Cu–Pb–Zn mineral deposits near igneous complexes and FeCuPbZn zones away from the complexes. Silver anomalies occur not only in the known Fe–Cu–Zn–Pb deposits, but also in the country rock, suggesting the possible existence of silver deposits far from the igneous complexes.The tonnage distribution of silver is modeled by Monte Carlo simulation. This simulation is conducted on the basis of the correlations between silver (Ag) and lead (Pb), since no known data on silver is available. The known tonnage distribution of lead in 11 control cells was used to approximate the tonnage distribution of silver in the Monte Carlo simulation. With ISA and Monte Carlo methods, the total amount of potential polymetallic resources in 49 cells in the western Zhejiang Provice is predicted. Significantly, a deposit with about 24 tonnes of silver has been found within our exploration target area.