制度约束与路径选择——珠三角高密集城中村治理改造的困境与出路

从珠三角高密集城中村的形成入手，探讨其与外向型乡村城市化以及相关制度约束的关系，从而揭示了高密集城中村空间现象的形成过程。同时，对近年来珠三角各城市治理与改造高密集城中村的相关模式与对策进行梳理与评价，指出目前珠三角各城市的城中村治理中的挫折与困境（适应性效率不足），客观上反映了国家宏观制度供给结构与先行快速城市化地区的制度落差，珠三角大都市地区城中村的最终都市化将是一个长期的过程。文中针对目前城中村治理改造的问题与困境，提出珠三角高密集城中村空间治理予以重视的若干政策思路。     

1614年平遥—榆社间61／2级地震的讨论

通过对1614年平遥榆社间6(1/2)级地震的进一步研究,认为前人确定这次地震时所用的史料疑点较多,所确定的基本参数也问题较大.得出是两次地震事件的结论:一次是1614年10月15日(万历四十二年九月十三日),地点武乡,震级约为5(1/2)级;一次是1614年10月23日(万历四十二年九月二十一日),地点榆社,震级约5(3/4)级.     

Tectonic setting of post-orogenic granites within SW Fennoscandia based on deep seismic and gravity data

Within the Svecononvegian Province of SW Scandinavia granite intrusions are abundant. Prominent ones are the Bohus-Iddefjord and the Flå granites, the so- called Bohus-Flå Granite belt. The age of these granites, consistent at ≅ 900 Ma, coincides with the late extensional stage of the Svecononvegian-Grenvillian orogen. Gravity observations and deep seismic profiling lines are presented that also cover the Skagerrak Sea. The geophysical data suggest that the Bohus granite continues seaward for at least 80 km and its thickness, offshore, is estimated to be 2–4 km. Where the seismic profiling lines intersect the inferred seaward extension of the Bohus granite, a distinct reflection pattern is observed at ≅ 1.6 s. TWT. This coincides with a gravity modelled thickness of ≅ 4 km. The seismic profiles also show a large Moho offset beneath the modelled granite. It is proposed that this offset is related to Svecononvegian crustal underthrusting and that the granite melt could have formed by anatexis of mid-crustal rocks downthrusted to greater depths in the vicinity of the seismically observed Moho offset.     

山西离柳集团化肥厂雷击原因分析及防雷方案

离柳集团化肥厂几乎每年均遭受雷害侵袭造成较大损失。本文对雷击原因（特别是DCS系统雷击原因）进行了系统分析并提出综合防雷方案。该方案2007年实施后取得良好的防雷效果。     

In Situ U‐Th‐Pb Dating and Sr‐Nd Isotope Analysis of Bastnäsite by LA‐(MC)‐ICP‐MS

Bastnäsite is the end member of a large group of carbonate–fluoride minerals with the common formula (REE) CO₃F·CaCO₃. This group is generally widespread and, despite never occurring in large quantities, represents the major economic light rare earth element (LREE) mineral in deposits related to carbonatite and alkaline intrusions. Since bastnäsite is easily altered and commonly contains inclusions of earlier‐crystallised minerals, in situ analysis is considered the most suitable method to measure its U‐Th‐Pb and Sr‐Nd isotopic compositions. Electron probe microanalysis and laser ablation (multi‐collector) inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry of forty‐six bastnäsite samples from LREE deposits in China, Pakistan, Sweden, Mongolia, USA, Malawi and Madagascar indicate that this mineral typically has high Th and LREE and moderate U and Sr contents. Analysis of an in‐house bastnäsite reference material (K‐9) demonstrated that precise and accurate U‐Th‐Pb ages could be obtained after common Pb correction. Moreover, the Th‐Pb age with its high precision is preferable to the U‐Pb age because most bastnäsites have relatively high Th rather than U contents. These results will have significant implications for understanding the genesis of endogenous ore deposits and formation processes related to metallogenic geochronology research.     

基于数值预报和随机森林算法的强对流天气分类预报技术

随机森林算法是当前得到较为广泛应用的机器学习方法之一,有着很高的预测精度,训练结果稳定,泛化能力强,解决多分类问题有明显优势。本文将随机森林算法应用于强对流的潜势预测和分类,分短时强降水、雷暴大风、冰雹和无强对流四种类别,基于2005—2016年NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料计算的对流指数和物理量,开展强对流天气的分类训练、0～12 h预报和检验,经2015—2016年独立测试样本检验表明,针对强对流发生站点的点对点检验,整体误判率为21. 9%,85次强对流过程基本无漏报,模型尤其适用于较大范围强对流天气。随机森林算法筛选的因子物理意义较为明确,和主观预报经验基本相符,模型准确率高,可用于日常业务。     

Seasonal circulation in the southeastern Huanghai Sea

The seasonal circulation in the southeastern Huanghai Sea has been studied with hydrographic data,which were observed in February and June 1994 and bimonthly during 1970-1990,and numerical model results.Horiwntal distributions of temperature and salinity in 1994 are quite different due to strong tidal mixing so that we need a analysis to see the real distributions of water masses.The mixing ratio analysis with the data of 1970-1990 shows the connection of the waters in the west coasts of Kotea Peninsula with warm and saline waters from the south in summer,which means northward inflows along the west coasts of Korea Peninsula in summer.With this flow,the seasonal circulations,which are deduced from the seasonal change of water mass distributions in the lower layer,are warm inflows in winter and mld outflows in summer in the central Huanghai Sea,and cold outflows in winter and warm inflows in summer along the west coasts of Korea Peninsula.The seasonally changed inflows might be the Huanghai Sea Warm Current.The monsoon winds can drive such circulations.However,summer monsoon winds are weak and irregular.As one of other possible dynamics,the variation of Kuroshio transport is numerically studied with allowing sea level fluctuations.Although it should be studied more,it possibly drives the summer circulations.The real circulations seem to be driven by both of them.     

Annual and Seasonal Variations of the Sea Surface Heat Fluxes in the East Asian Marginal Seas

Based on the twice-daily marine atmospheric variables which were derived mostly from the weather maps for 18 years period from 1978 to 1995, the surface heat flux over the East Asian marginal seas was calculated at 0.5°×0.5° grid points twice a day. The annual mean distribution of the net heat flux shows that the maximum heat loss occurs in the central part of the Yellow Sea, along the Kuroshio axis and along the west coast of the northern Japanese islands. The area off Vladivostok turned out to be a heat-losing region, however, on the average, the amount of heat loss is minimum over the study area and the estuary of the Yangtze River also appears as a region of the minimum heat loss. The seasonal variations of heat flux show that the period of heat gain is longest in the Yellow Sea, and the maximum heat gain occurs in June. The maximum heat loss occurs in January over the study area, except the Yellow Sea where the heat loss is maximum in December. The annual mean value of the net heat flux in the East/Japan Sea is −108 W/m² which is about twice the value of Hirose et al. (1996) or about 30% higher than Kato and Asai (1983). For the Yellow Sea, it is about −89 W/m² and it becomes −75 W/m² in the East China Sea. This increase in values of the net heat flux comes mostly from the turbulent fluxes which are strongly dependent on the wind speed, which fluctuates largely during the winter season. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Successful application of multiscale methods in a real reservoir simulator environment

For the past 10 years or so, a number of so-called multiscale methods have been developed as an alternative approach to upscaling and to accelerate reservoir simulation. The key idea of all these methods is to construct a set of prolongation operators that map between unknowns associated with cells in a fine grid holding the petrophysical properties of the geological reservoir model and unknowns on a coarser grid used for dynamic simulation. The prolongation operators are computed numerically by solving localized flow problems, much in the same way as for flow-based upscaling methods, and can be used to construct a reduced coarse-scale system of flow equations that describe the macro-scale displacement driven by global forces. Unlike effective parameters, the multiscale basis functions have subscale resolution, which ensures that fine-scale heterogeneity is correctly accounted for in a systematic manner. Among all multiscale formulations discussed in the literature, the multiscale restriction-smoothed basis (MsRSB) method has proved to be particularly promising. This method has been implemented in a commercially available simulator and has three main advantages. First, the input grid and its coarse partition can have general polyhedral geometry and unstructured topology. Secondly, MsRSB is accurate and robust when used as an approximate solver and converges relatively fast when used as an iterative fine-scale solver. Finally, the method is formulated on top of a cell-centered, conservative, finite-volume method and is applicable to any flow model for which one can isolate a pressure equation. We discuss numerical challenges posed by contemporary geomodels and report a number of validation cases showing that the MsRSB method is an efficient, robust, and versatile method for simulating complex models of real reservoirs.     

Watershed morphometric analysis of Wadi Baish Dam catchment area using integrated GIS-based approach

The integration of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) constitutes a powerful tool for the evaluation of watershed morphometric parameters. The benefits of this integration include saving time and effort as well as improving the accuracy of the analysis. Moreover, this technique is appropriate for describing the watershed and its streams. In this study, a detailed morphometric analysis of the Wadi Baish catchment area has been performed using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The performed morphometric analysis includes linear, areal, and relief aspects. The results of the morphometric analysis reveal that the catchment can be described as of eighth stream order and consists of an area of 4741.07 km². Additionally, the basin is characterized by a relatively high mean value of bifurcation (4.012), indicative of the scarcity of permeable rocks with high slope in the area. This value of bifurcation ratio is consistent with the high drainage density value of 2.064 km/km² and confirms the impermeability of the subsurface material and mountainous relief. The hypsometric integral of the catchment is 47.4%, and the erosion integral of the catchment is 52.6%, both were indications of a mature catchment area.