地震活动性总体参量Rt在北京及邻区地震预测中的应用

采用地震活动性总体参量R_t方法,研究北京及邻区R_t值在中等地震前随时间的变化特征,分析跟踪地震发生前研究区域地震活动状态,探讨中等地震孕震过程的异常信息的变化特征。结果显示:当R_t值大于阈值0.84时,研究区域地震活动状态比较稳定,发生中等地震的可能性较小;反之,表明地震活动处于不稳定状态,具有发生中等地震的危险。检验R_t值的地震预测效能,预测效果比较理想,利用地震活动状态参量R_t研究北京及邻区地震活动状态,判定中等地震发生的风险性,具有一定预测意义。     

残余位移反应谱的参数影响研究

从PEER强震数据库中选取4类场地的320条地震动记录作为输入,采用BISPEC程序对非线性单自由度（SDOF）体系（周期T=0.05—5s）进行非线性时程分析,得到相应的残余位移反应谱（Dres）,进而研究地震动特性和恢复力模型动力参数对Dres的影响,得到如下结论:①Dres谱值随震级和PGA的增加而增大;其他设防烈度的Dres可由PGA_其他与PGA_基准之比调整基准烈度的Dres得到。②场地土较硬时,场地类型对Dres的影响较小;场地土较软时,Dres谱值随土质的变软而增大。③当位移延性比μ较小时,屈服后刚度比η对Dres的影响可忽略;但当μ较大时,Dres谱值随η的增加而减小。另外,Dres谱值还随阻尼比ξ的增加而减小。④随着T或μ的增大,Dres谱值均呈递增趋势;但当μ>3后,μ对Dres谱值的影响有所下降。     

离散Fréchet距离在强震台站场地分类中的应用

当强震台站场地资料不完整时,所收集到的强震数据因缺乏准确的场地类别信息而难以有效利用。为解决这一问题,本文提出一种基于离散Fréchet距离的强震台站场地分类方法。将获取到的664个KiK-net台站场地按照《建筑抗震设计规范（GB 50011—2010）》进行分类,并构建2个数据集。利用数据集1得到Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类场地标准谱比曲线,并结合离散Fréchet距离对数据集2中的台站进行场地分类,统计分类成功率与误判率。统计结果表明,本文方法能较准确地对场地进行分类,且误判率在可接受范围内。将本文方法分类统计结果与斯皮尔曼秩相关系数法分类的成功率与误判率进行对比,结合本文方法分类后得到的平均谱比曲线,均可表明应用本文方法进行强震台站场地分类具有合理性。     

Cyclical one-way continental rupture-drift in the Tethyan evolution: Subduction-driven plate tectonics

Numerous continents have rifted and drifted away from Gondwana to repeatedly open ocean basins over the past-500 millionyears.These Gondwana-derived continents drifted towards and collided with components of the Eurasian continent to successively close the preexisting oceans between the two.Plate tectonics satisfactorily describes the continental drift from Gondwana to Eurasia but does not define the geodynamic mechanism of continuously rifting to collisions of continents in the Tethy an Realm.After reappraisal of geological records of the rift,collision and subduction initiation from the surface and various geophysical observations from depth,we propose that Eurasia-directed subducting oceanic slabs would have driven Tethyan system in the Phanerozoic.The Eurasia-directed subduction would have dragged the passive Gondwana margin to rift and drift northwards,giving birth to new oceans since the Paleozoic.The closure of preexisting oceans between the Gondwana-derived continents and Eurasia led to continental collisions,which would have induced the initiation of oceanic subduction in the Tethyan Realm.Multiple episodic switches between collision-subduction-rift repeatedly led to the separation of continental fragments from Gondwana and dragged them to drift towards Eurasia.The final disappearance of Neo-Tethy s would have induced collision of the Gondwana-derived continents with the Eurasian continent,giving rise to the Cenozoic Alpine-Zagros-Himalayan collisional system.Therefore,the Eurasia-directed oceanic subduction would have acted as a 'one-way train' that successively transferred the ruptured Gondwana continental fragments in the south,into the terminal in the north.In this regard,the engine of this "Tethyan one-way train" is the negative buoyancy of subducting oceanic slabs.     

Quantitative simulation and verification of upgrade law of sustainable development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

The natural formation and development of urban agglomerations is a process in which core cities continue to unite their neighboring cities to enhance sustainability for their own sustainable development.The upgrade mechanism of sustainable development urban agglomeration is a nonlinear composite upgrade curve that is a function of time,increasing with the number of cities.In this paper,the sustainable upgrade function curve,upgrade rate,and upgrade speed of urban agglomerations were solved using a geometrical derivation,and the index system for measuring the upgrade capability of sustainable development of urban agglomerations was established.The dynamic change in economic sustainable upgrade capability,social sustainable upgrade capability,environmental sustainable upgrade capability,and comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of a Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2015 was measured by technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution and a grey correlation method,and a comprehensive,intercity unite strength model and a unite threshold calculation method for urban agglomerations were established.The research shows that the economic sustainable upgrade capability,social sustainable upgrade capability,environmental sustainable upgrade capability,and comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration all show a wave-like rising trend.The average annual upgrade speeds during 2000-2015 are,respectively,2.4%.1.67%,1.1%,and 1.74%,with the intercity comprehensive unite strength of urban agglomerations maintaining a general increase;but there is a limit to the joint threshold.From 2000 to 2015,as the core city of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,Beijing,to enhance its sustainable upgrade capability,jointly developed with Tianjin,Langfang,and Baoding before 2000,Tangshan in 2002,Cangzhou in 2009,Zhangjiakou and Shijiazhuang in 2012,and Chengde in 2014.By 2015,the comprehensive unite strength between Beijing and four cities(Handan,Qinhuangdao,Hengshui,and Xingtai) was still lower than the unite threshold of 6.14.These four cities are relatively far from Beijing,and offer no substantial contribution to the sustainable upgrade capability of Beijing.Through multiple fittings of the upgrade curve using the long-term sequence index of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of Beijing(the core city of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration) from 2000 to 2015,it was found that the simulated curve of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade function of the agglomeration was very similar to the curve of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability,which indicates that the simulation results are satisfactory.The future comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of the agglomeration can be analyzed and predicted by the comprehensive sustainable upgrade function model.This study provides quantitative decision-supporting evidence for promoting the coordinated development of the Beijing-TianjinHebei urban agglomeration and provides theoretical guidance and algorithms for determining the number of cities joined with the sustainable development of national urban agglomerations.     

Tropical cyclones and multiscale climate variability: The active western North Pacific Typhoon season of 2018

The 2018 typhoon season in the western North Pacific(WNP) was highly active, with 26 named tropical cyclones(TCs) from June to November, which exceeded the climatological mean(22) and was the second busiest season over the past twenty years. More TCs formed in the eastern region of the WNP and the northern region of the South China Sea(SCS). More TCs took the northeast quadrant in the WNP, recurving from northwestward to northward and causing heavy damages in China's Mainland(69.73 billion yuan) in 2018. Multiscale climate variability is conducive to an active season via an enhanced monsoon trough and a weakened subtropical high in the WNP. The large-scale backgrounds in 2018 showed a favorable environment for TCs established by a developing central Pacific(CP) El Ni?o and positive Pacific meridional mode(PMM)episode on interannual timescales. The tropical central Pacific(TCP) SST forcing exhibits primary control on TCs in the WNP and large-scale circulations, which are insensitive to the PMM. During CP El Ni?o years, anomalous convection associated with the TCP warming leads to significantly increased anomalous cyclonic circulation in the WNP because of a Gill-type Rossby wave response. As a result, the weakened subtropical high and enhanced monsoon trough shift eastward and northward, which favor TC genesis and development. Although such increased TC activity in 2018 might be slightly suppressed by interdecadal climate variability, it was mostly attributed to the favorable interannual background. In addition, high-frequency climate signals,such as intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) and synoptic-scale disturbances(SSDs), interacted with the enhanced monsoon trough and strongly modulated regional TC genesis and development in 2018.     

Pollen-based Holocene quantitative temperature reconstruction on the eastern Tibetan Plateau using a comprehensive method framework

Quantitative climate reconstruction on long timescales can provide important insights for understanding the climate variability and providing valuable data for simulations. Unfortunately, the credibility of some attempts was hampered by incomplete reconstruction procedures. We here establish a comprehensive framework resting on high-quality Chinese modern pollen database, including modern pollen data screening, calibration set selection, major climate factor analysis, appropriate model selection, strict statistical assessment of results and ecological interpretation. The application of this framework to three high-resolution pollen records from the eastern Tibetan Plateau allows accurate quantitative inferences of Holocene temperature changes, which is the major control of regional vegetation. The results show that the mean warmest month temperature(MTwa)during the early Holocene was ca. 10.4℃ and reached the highest value at 8.5–6 ka BP(ca. 11℃). The early and mid-Holocene(11–5 ka BP) warmth was followed by 1.2℃ temperature decrease, culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Neoglacial cooling. Superimposing on the general cooling trend, MTwareveals a significant 500-yr periodicity with varying intensities through time, showing that warm(cold) intervals are in phase with solar maxima(minima) periods. This spectral similarity indicates a possible connection of multi-century scale climate fluctuations with solar forcing.     

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for a size-resolved aerosol model: Implementation and application for particulate matter and gaseous pollutant forecasts across China

A three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation(DA) system is presented here based on a size-resolved sectional aerosol model, the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry(MOSAIC) within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry(WRF-Chem) model. The use of this approach means that both gaseous pollutants such as SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 as well as particulate matter(PM_(2.5), PM_(10)) observational data can be assimilated simultaneously.Two one-month parallel simulation experiments were conducted, one with the assimilation of surface hourly concentration observations of the above six pollutants released by the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre(CNEMC) and one without assimilation in order to verify the impact of assimilation on initial chemical fields and subsequent forecasts. Results show that, in the first place, use of the DA system can provide a more accurate model initial field. The root-mean-square error of PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 mass concentrations in analysis field fell by 29.27 μg m~(-3)(53.5%), 34.5 μg m~(-3)(50.9%),30.36 μg m~(-3)(64.2%), 8.91 μg m~(-3)(39.5%), 0.46 mg m~(-3)(47.4%), and 15.11 μg m~(-3)(51.0%), respectively, compared to a background field without assimilation. At the same time, mean fraction error was reduced by 42.6%, 53.1%, 45.2%, 43.1%,69.9%, and 48.8%, respectively, while the correlation coefficient increased by 0.51, 0.55, 0.48, 0.38, 0.47, 0.65, respectively.Secondly, the results of this analysis reveal variable benefits from assimilation on different pollutants. DA significantly improves PM_(2.5), PM_(10), and CO forecasts leading to positive effects that last more than 48 h. The positive effects of DA on SO_2 and O_3 forecasts last up to 8 h but that remains relatively poor for NO_2 forecasts. Thirdly, the influence of assimilation varies in different areas. It is possible that the positive effects of DA on PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) forecasts can last more than 48 h across most regions of China. Indeed, DA significantly improves SO_2 forecasts within 48 h over north China, and much longer CO assimilation benefits(48 h) are found in most regions apart from north and east China and across the Sichuan Basin. DA is able to improve O_3 forecasts within 48 h across China with the exception of southwest and northwest regions and the O_3 DA benefits in southern China are more evident, while from a spatial distribution perspective, NO_2 DA benefits remain relatively poor.     

Evaluation of the potential risks of heavy metal contamination in rice paddy soils around an abandoned Hg mine area in Southwest China

To assess the potential ecological and health risks of trace elements(Hg,Cd,As,Mn,Sb,Pb,Cu,Ni,Cr,and Zn),a total of 138 soil samples from rice paddies were collected during the rice harvest season in the Wanshan mining area,Guizhou Province,Southwest China.Factors of the pollution load index(PLI),geo-accumulation index(I-Geo),enrichment factor(EF),and risk index(RI)were determined.High concentrations of Hg,Sb,As,Zn,Cd,Cu,and Mn were observed in the soils.The PLI,I-Geo,and EF results all showed high levels of contamination by Hg and Sb and moderate levels of contamination by As,Pb,Zn,Cu,Cd,and Mn.There was no significant contamination from Ni and Cr.The RI was very high,with Hg as the dominant pollutant,as expected,indicating that the historical large-scale Hg mining,as well as artisanal mining,has had a significant impact on the Wanshan area.Moreover,coal combustion,manganese factories,and the use of agrochemicals by the local population could also have an impact on the soil through the introduction of heavy metal loads.To address the current state of contamination,pollutant remediation and the regulation control of the anthropogenic activities in Wanshan are urgently needed.     

利用谱聚类方法研究新丰江库区的震源机制解

为检验震源机制解谱聚类方法的实用性,选择新丰江库区为研究区域,利用FOCMEC方法反演了该区域2012年1月1日—2018年12月31日M_L2.0以上地震的震源机制解,并对其进行了谱聚类分析,最终获得该区域7种震源机制解类型;通过分析每种类型的震源机制解特征及其时空分布特征,探讨了震源机制解类型分布与区域构造的关系。结果表明:(1)新丰江库区地震破裂类型以正断型为主,兼有部分倾滑分量,其次为走滑型;(2)不同类型的震源机制解具有区域性的空间分布特征,主要受不同的构造背景影响,反映了新丰江库区地震活动和构造特征之间的关系;(3)不同类型震源机制解所描述的断裂分布反映了峡谷及大坝区库水渗透的构造条件,解释了区域地震频发的可能原因;(4)每种类型的震源机制解在研究时间范围内数量变化较为稳定。