Potential of the LASH model for water resources management in data-scarce basins: a case study of the Fragata River basin,southern Brazil

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study was to evaluate, based on a data-scarce basin in southern Brazil, the potential of the Lavras Simulation of Hydrology (LASH) model for estimating daily streamflows, annual streamflow indicators and the flow–duration curve. It was also used to simulate the different runoff components and their consistency with the basin physiographical characteristics. The statistical measures indicated that LASH can be considered suitable according to widely used classifications and when compared with other studies involving hydrological models. LASH also showed satisfactory results for annual indicators, especially for maximum and average annual streamflows, as well as for the flow–duration curve. It was found that the model was consistent with the basin characteristics when simulating runoff components. The results obtained in this study allowed us to conclude that the LASH model has the potential to aid practitioners in water resources management of basins with scarce data and similar soil and land-use conditions.

Editor A. Castellarin; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei     

Geochemistry of diffuse low-temperature hydrothermal fluids in the North Fiji basin

Low-temperature (<13°C) diffuse hydrothermal fluids were sampled directly at the seafloor with a specially designed Hydro Bottom Station in the North Fiji Basin and analyzed for gases, major and minor elements, and a large number of trace metals. The fluids were significantly enriched in CO₂, Si, Li, Rb, Cs, Ba, Mn, and several trace metals compared to ambient seawater, had high CH₄ and H₂S concentrations, and had a slightly decreased salinity. Calculated end-member concentrations of the low-temperature fluids show a strong similarity to the neighboring hot vents, implying that the diffuse fluids are hot vent waters diluted by seawater. According to the chemical composition, the sampled fluids derive from vapor-phase fluids produced by subseafloor boiling and phase separation. Compared to hot vents from other regions, Mn, Fe, and other trace metal concentrations are low. Subsurface metal sulfide precipitation during cooling and dilution with seawater has further decreased the dissolved metal contents of the diffuse fluids, thus creating a very favorable environment for the hydrothermal fauna, as indicated by a very low Fe/H₂S ratio. Therefore, the fluids support high bioproductivity but no hydrothermal mineral precipitation. The emanation of the condensed vapor phase appears to have been stable during the past 10 years; however, the occurrence of metal sulfide particles in some fluid and sediment samples and small areas of dead fauna indicate that the hydrothermal system may be evolving toward the emanation of the stored brine phase.     

Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region

The South Pacific Ocean is a key driver of climate variability within the Southern Hemisphere at different time scales. Previous studies have characterized the main mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in that region as a dipolar pattern of SST anomalies that cover subtropical and extratropical latitudes (the South Pacific Ocean Dipole, or SPOD), which is related to precipitation and temperature anomalies over several regions throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Using that relationship and the reported low predictive skill of precipitation anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere, this work explores the predictability and prediction skill of the SPOD in near-term climate hindcasts using a set of state-of-the-art forecast systems. Results show that predictability greatly benefits from initializing the hindcasts beyond the prescribed radiative forcing, and is modulated by known modes of climate variability, namely El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Furthermore, the models are capable of simulating the spatial pattern of the observed SPOD even without initialization, which suggests that the key dynamical processes are properly represented. However, the hindcast of the actual phase of the mode is only achieved when the forecast systems are initialized, pointing at SPOD variability to not be radiatively forced but probably internally generated. The comparison with the performance of an empirical prediction based on persistence suggests that initialization may provide skillful information for SST anomalies, outperforming damping processes, up to 2–3 years into the future.     

The Continuum Voronoi Block Model for simulation of fracture process in hard rocks

In this paper, a numerical model is presented to represent the fracture process in hard rocks based on a pseudo-discontinuum method called the Continuum Voronoi Block Model (CVBM). To validate this tool, numerical models for one Brazilian test, one unconfined compression test, and multiple triaxial compression tests with different confining stress were calibrated to match laboratory test results for Creighton granite. The model proved robust and matched the following macro-properties: crack initiation (CI) stress, (CD) stress, peak strength, tensile strength, Young's Modulus, and Poisson's ratio. The calibrated model served as a basis for a sensitivity study to analyze how micro-properties influence the rock's macroscopic responses. From the sensitivity study, a calibration methodology was proposed, which shall facilitate the use of the CVBM in future works.     

Capability of LISEM to estimate flood hydrographs in a watershed with predominance of long-duration rainfall events

Natural Hazards - Process-based hydrological models are of great importance to understand hydrological processes and support decision making. The LImburg Soil Erosion Model (LISEM) requires...     

Waveshapes of continuing currents and properties of M-components in natural positive cloud-to-ground lightning

This work analyses the waveshapes of continuing currents and parameters of M-components in positive cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes through high-speed GPS synchronized videos. The dataset is composed of only long continuing currents (with duration longer than 40 ms) and was selected from more than 800 flashes recorded in São José dos Campos (45.864°W, 23.215°S) and Uruguaiana (29.806°W, 57.005°S) in Southeast and South of Brazil, respectively, during 2003 to 2007 summers. The videos are compared with data obtained by the Brazilian Lightning Location System (BrasilDAT) in order to determine the polarity of each flash and select only positive cases. There are only two studies of waveshapes of continuing currents in the literature. One is based on direct current measurements of triggered lightning, in which four different types of waveshapes were observed; and the other is based on measurements of luminosity variations in high-speed videos of CG negative lightning, in which besides the four types above mentioned two additional types were observed. The present work is an extension of the latter, using the same method but now applied to obtain the waveshapes of positive CG lightning. As far as the authors know, this is the first report on M-components in positive continuing currents. We also have used the luminosity-versus-time graphs to observe their occurrence and measure some parameters (duration, elapsed time and time between two successive M-components), whose statistics are presented and compared in detail to the data for negative flashes. We have plotted a histogram of the M-components elapsed time over the total duration of the continuing current for positive flashes, which presented an exponential decay (correlation coefficient: 0.83), similar to what has been observed for negative flashes.     

Variations in annual snowline and area of an ice-covered stratovolcano in the Cordillera Ampato,Peru, using remote sensing data (1986–2014)

This research focuses on the recent variations in the annual snowline and the total glaciated area of the Nevado Coropuna in the Cordillera Ampato, Peru. Maximum snowline altitude towards the end of dry season is taken as a representative of the equilibrium line altitude of the year, which is an indirect measurement of the annual mass balance. We used Landsat and IRS LISS3 images during the last 30 years due to its better temporal coverage of the study site. It is found that there was a decrease of 26.92% of the glaciated area during 1986–2014. We calculated the anomalies in precipitation and temperature in this region and also tried to correlate the changes in glacier parameters with the combined influence of El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). It is concluded that the snowline of Nevado Coropuna has been fluctuated during ENSO, and maximum fluctuations were observed when ENSO and PDO were in phase.