2011年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因

2011年,全球气温偏高,为有观测记录以来的第十个暖年,是近60年来出现拉尼娜事件的年份中全球气温最高的一年。2011年,全球热带气旋活动较常年偏少。4月,一次拉尼娜事件结束,9月又一次拉尼娜事件生成。年初,低温、寒流席卷亚洲大部,暴风雪频繁袭击北美地区。西欧和中国东部出现严重春旱。夏季,非洲东部经历了20世纪80年代以来最严重的干旱,而东南亚、巴基斯坦和中南美洲洪涝灾害严重。全球极端偏暖事件主要出现在欧洲西部和西北部、南亚南部、东亚中西部、北美东南部等地;极端偏冷事件主要出现在东亚、澳大利亚、非洲南部和美国东北部和西部等地。而南美中东部、东南亚及中国东南部、日本、澳大利亚北部、非洲西部等地出现了极端强降水事件。研究发现,2010／2011年拉尼娜事件和台风活动是导致东南亚洪涝出现的重要原因,而巴基斯坦洪涝主要与印度洋正位相偶极型海温分布有关。     

浑太流域降水极值的统计分布特征

基于浑太流域1966-2006年73个雨量站的日降水资料,建立了逐站年最大日降水量(AnnualMaximum,AM)序列和汛期4-9月日降水量<1.27mm.d-1的最长持续干旱天数(Munger Index,MI)序列,并对其时空分布规律进行了分析。采用广义极值(General Extreme Value,GEV)分布、广义帕雷托(General Pareto,GP)分布、韦布尔(Weibull,WB)分布、约翰逊SB(Jonhson SB,J-SB)分布、Burr分布和对数逻辑(Log-Logistic,L-LG)分布等6种极值分布函数对AM和MI序列进行了逐站分布拟合,结果表明,广泛应用的GEV分布整体拟合程度最好,有50个测站的KS检验统计量Dn<0.09,而未曾推广使用的Burr分布的拟合效果也非常好,有36个测站Dn<0.09。用GEV分布对50年一遇的AM和MI进行了估算,发现流域中心地区极端强降水和极端干旱的程度较高,分别为>208mm.d-1和>47d。     

一种基于不确定度的水深控浅方法

针对目前广泛使用的经验取浅方法在安全可靠性上的不足,提出了一种基于不确定度的水深控浅方法。所提方法计算了原始观测和内插水深的不确定度信息,并基于不确定度信息设计了安全可靠的水深控浅模型,比对分析了两种水深方法的安全可靠性。实验证明：与经验取浅方法相比,所提方法可明显提高水深模型的安全可靠性,特别是在水深变化复杂的区域。     

C#哈希表在GPS网闭合环自动搜寻编程中的应用

哈希表作为一种通用而高效的面向查找的存储结构,被广泛地应用于计算机信息查询中。GPS网闭合环自动搜寻编程涉及大量的基线信息查询工作,将哈希表技术应用于GPS网闭合环自动搜寻,能够有效地提高程序运行的效率,减少计算过程的等待时间。     

关于总体最小二乘方法适应性实验研究

总体最小二乘是近年来发展起来的较最小二乘方法更为严密的平差方法,总体最小二乘能够顾及系数矩阵和观测值矩阵同时存在偶然误差并加以改正。然而对于总体最小二乘方法的适用性以及在根据实际数据建立模型时总体最小二乘方法改正系数矩阵和观测值矩阵误差的能力问题还没有深入研究,针对一元线性回归模型,讨论总体最小二乘方法的灵敏性,利用仿真实验数据验证总体最小二乘方法在线性回归模型中的改正能力和优越性。     

CBERS-02B卫星遥感影像的区域网平差

针对中巴资源一号卫星(CBERS-02B)卫星遥感影像姿态角误差较大的特点,提出了利用区域网平差方法提高其对地目标定位精度的策略和具体计算过程。首先对参与平差的每景影像选取4个地面控制点进行影像姿态角常差检校,然后采用与地形无关方案解求各自的RPC参数,最后选取带仿射变换项的有理函数模型(RFM)进行多重覆盖影像的区域网平差。对两个地区的0级CBERS-02B单条CCD立体影像对的区域网平差试验表明,对地目标定位的平面和高程精度均达到了±3个像元的水平,且高程精度明显优于平面精度。相对于常规的卫星遥感影像区域网平差方法,平面和高程精度均有明显提升,几乎达到国外同等高分辨率卫星遥感影像的几何定位精度。这说明中国卫星遥感影像亦具有较好的几何定位潜力,在区域网平差之前进行系统误差预改正是必要和可行的。     

A new design of the LAPS land surface scheme for use over and through heterogeneous and non-heterogeneous surfaces: Numerical simulations and tests

Numerical simulations and tests with the recently redesigned land–air parameterization scheme (LAPS) are presented. In all experiments, supported either by one-point micrometeorological, 1D or 3D simulations, the attention has been directed to: (1) comparison of simulation outputs, expressing the energy transfer over and through heterogeneous and non-heterogeneous surfaces, versus observations and (2) analysis of uncertainties occurring in the solution of the energy balance equation at the land–air interface. To check the proposed method for aggregation of albedo, “propagating hole” sensitivity tests with LAPS over a sandstone rock grid cell have been performed with the forcing meteorological data for July 17, 1999 in Baxter site, Philadelphia (USA). Micrometeorological and biophysical measurements from the surface experiments conducted over crops and apple orchard in Serbia, Poland, Austria and France were used to test the operation of LAPS in calculating surface fluxes and canopy environment temperatures within and above plant covers of different densities. In addition, sensitivity tests with single canopy covers over the Central Europe region and comparison against the observations taken from SYNOP data using 3D simulations were made. Validation of LAPS performances over a solid surface has been done by comparison of 2 m air temperature observations against 5-day simulations over the Sahara Desert rocky ground using 3D model. To examine how realistically the LAPS simulates surface processes over a heterogeneous surface, we compared the air temperature measured at 2 m and that predicted by the 1D model with the LAPS as the surface scheme. Finally, the scheme behaviour over urban surface was tested by runs over different parts of a hypothetical urban area. The corresponding 1D simulations were carried out with an imposed meteorological dataset collected during HAPEX-MOBILHY experiment at Caumont (France). The quantities predicted by the LAPS compare well with the observations and the various subcomponents of the scheme appear to operate realistically.     

广东热带气旋降水年代际变化特征的分析

采用1951—2005年热带气旋和广东省26个测站降水的观测资料,分析了广东热带气旋及其降水的年代际变化特征。结果表明:广东热带气旋降水存在峰值为25年左右的振荡周期,影响广东的热带气旋个数和西北太平洋上热带气旋的形成个数都存在峰值为23年左右的振荡周期;广东热带气旋降水的年代际变化与影响广东的热带气旋个数和西北太平洋上热带气旋的形成个数存在高度正相关;广东热带气旋降水的年代际变化与西太平洋部分区域的年平均SST的年代际变化和北太平洋中高纬部分地区的年平均500 hPa位势高度的年代际变化存在显著的负相关;广东热带气旋降水偏少时期与降水偏多时期相比,一般赤道中、东太平洋的平均SST相对较高,而北太平洋中纬度地区的平均SST相对较低,北太平洋上的东亚大槽相对较强。     

灰色-自回归动态模型用于原子时尺度计算

由于各种噪声和其他因素的影响,原子钟运行情况十分复杂.为了准确地预测其确切的频率变化或钟速,有必要研究建立一个可靠的预测模型,通过模型预测原子钟的钟速,以便在地方协调时的监控和地方原子时计算中采用.讨论了如何利用灰色模型与自回归模型对原子钟钟速进行预测,研究并提出了二者的综合模型,结合国家授时中心原子钟实际数据进行了验证,并给出了不同原子钟对应模型的预测精度计算方法.     

Titan's surface at 2.2-cm wavelength imaged by the Cassini RADAR radiometer: Calibration and first results

The first comprehensive calibration and mapping of the thermal microwave emission from Titan's surface is reported based on radiometric data obtained at 2.2-cm wavelength by the passive radiometer included in the Cassini Radar instrument. The data reported were accumulated from 69 separate observational segments in Titan passes from Ta (October 2004) through T30 (May 2007) and include emission from 94% of Titan's surface. They are diverse in the key observing parameters of emission angle, polarization, and spatial resolution, and their reduction into calibrated global mosaic maps involved several steps. Analysis of the polarimetry obtained at low to moderate resolution (50+ km) enabled integration of the radiometry into a single mosaic of the equivalent brightness temperature at normal incidence with a relative precision of about 1 K. The Huygens probe measurement of Titan's surface temperature and radiometry obtained on Titan's dune fields allowed us to infer an absolute calibration estimated to be accurate to a level approaching 1 K. The results provide evidence for a surface that is complex and varied on large scales. The radiometry primarily constrains physical properties of the surface, where we see strong evidence for subsurface (volume) scattering as a dominant mechanism that determines the emissivity, with the possibility of a fluffy or graded-density surface layer in many regions. The results are consistent with, but not necessarily definitive of a surface composition resulting from the slow deposition and processing of organic compounds from the atmosphere.