Predicted present-day evolution patterns of ice thickness and bedrock elevation over Greenland and Antarctica

This paper discusses predicted evolution patterns of present-day changes of ice thickness, surface elevation, and bedrock elevation over the Greenland and Antarctic continents. These were obtained from calculations with dynamic 3-D ice sheet models which were coupled to a visco-elastic solid Earth model. The experiments were initialized over the last two glacial cycles and subsequently averaged over the last 200 years to obtain the current evolution. The calculations indicate that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is still adjusting to the last glacial-interglacial transition yielding a decreasing ice volume and a rising bedrock elevation of the order of several centimetres per year. The Greenland Ice Sheet was found to be close to a stationary state with a mean thickness change of only a few millimetres per year, but the calculations revealed large spatial differences. Predicted patterns over Greenland are characterized by a small thickening over the ice sheet interior and a general thinning of the ablation area. In Antarctica, almost all of the predicted changes are concentrated in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is still retreating at both the Weddell and Ross Sea margins. Over most of both ice sheets, the model indicates that the surface elevation trend is dominated by ice thickness changes rather than by bedrock elevation changes.     

南极海冰面积变化特性及其与赤道太平洋海表面温度的联系

南极海冰面积变化特性及其与赤道太平洋海表面温度的联系陈锦年,乐肯堂,于康玲,张彦臣（中国科学院海洋研究所,青岛２６６０７１）（青岛海洋大学,青岛２６６００３）关键词南极海冰面积,赤道太平洋海表面温度,厄尔尼诺１引言８０年代以前,人们对南极实地考察、资...     

用定量遥感方法监测UNDP试区小流域水土流失研究

简要介绍了水土流失定量遥感方法的组成和基本原理,重点叙述了它在小流域治理试区的应用作业和应用结果,并讨论了它的适应性、准确性、实用性和应用前景等。该法的监测模型可与美国近年刊出的RUSLE相媲美,且其因子算式算法系由我国实测资料所建,故更适合我国水土流失实际的应用效果,尤其适用于遥感和GIS数据的微机处理。其应用结果,不仅有比常规调查法和定性遥感法更准确实用的流失总量、各级面积的统计数据和流失现状图,而且还有流失治理规划的防治强度预报图。在UNDP试区应用表明,该法所建立的系统,也可对小流域(大于7km2)每年实施监测,以获水土流失变化动态的准确信息。     

论中国湖泊渔业发展趋势

由封闭到开放、从无序到有序演进, 是中国湖泊渔业发展的客观规律。目前中国湖泊渔业已迈过广封闭式的原始渔业, 半封闭式的传统渔业, 向开放式的耗散结构渔业前进.中国湖泊渔业巧妙利用多维空间进行立体开发的多种开放经笄模式, 如根据水层深浅开展立体利用, 根据地形特点进行不同形式的围栏养殖, 根据而积大小分别采取保护、增殖、养殆措施, 这些都取得r初步成功。现代开放式湖泊渔业继续向纵深发展, 呈现向耗散结构渔业逼近的趋势。     

Weathering,erosion and sediment composition in a high‐gradient river,Calabria, Italy

Source rock lithology and immediate modifying processes, such as chemical weathering and mechanical erosion, are primary controls on fluvial sediment supply. Sand composition and Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA) of parent rocks, soil and fluvial sand of the Savuto River watershed, Calabria (Italy), were used to evaluate the modifications of source rocks through different sections of the basin, characterized by different geomorphic processes, in a sub‐humid Mediterranean climate. The headwaters, with gentle topography, produce a coarse‐grained sediment load derived from deeply weathered gneiss, having sand of quartzofeldspathic composition, compositionally very different from in situ degraded bedrock. Maximum estimated CIA values suggest that source rock has been affected significantly by weathering, and it testifies to a climatic threshold on the destruction of the bedrock. The mid‐course has steeper slopes and a deeply incised valley; bedrock consists of mica‐schist and phyllite with a very thin regolith, which provides large cobble to very coarse sand sediments to the main channel. Slope instability, with an areal incidence of over 40 per cent, largely supplies detritus to the main channel. Sand‐sized detritus of soil and fluvial sand is lithic. Estimated CIA value testifies to a significant weathering of the bedrock too, even if in this part of the drainage basin steeper slopes allow erosion to exceed chemical weathering. The lower course has a braided pattern and sediment load is coarse to medium–fine grained. The river cuts across Palaeozoic crystalline rocks and Miocene siliciclastic deposits. Sand‐sized detritus, contributed from these rocks and homogenized by transport processes, has been found in the quartzolithic distal samples. Field and laboratory evidence indicates that landscape development was the result of extensive weathering during the last postglacial temperature maximum in the headwaters, and of mass‐failure and fluvial erosional processes in the mid‐ and low course. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of self-attraction and loading at a regional scale: a test case for the Northwest European Shelf

The impact of the self-attraction and loading effect (SAL) in a regional 2D barotropic tidal model has been assessed, a term with acknowledged and well-understood importance for global models but omitted for boundary-forced, regional models, for which the implementation of SAL is non-trivial due to its non-local nature. In order to understand the impact of the lack of SAL effects in a regional scale, we have forced a regional model of the Northwest European Continental Shelf and the North Sea (continental shelf model (CSM)) with the SAL potential field derived from a global model (GTSM), in the form of a pressure field. Impacts have been studied in an uncalibrated setup and with only tidal forcing activated, in order to isolate effects. Additionally, the usually adopted simple SAL parameterization, in which the SAL contribution to the total tide is parameterized as a percentage of the barotropic pressure gradient (typically chosen 10%), is also implemented and compared to the results obtained with a full SAL computation. A significant impact on M2 representation is observed in the English Channel, Irish Sea and the west (UK East coast) and south (Belgian and Dutch Coast) of the North Sea, with an impact of up to 20 cm in vector difference terms. The impact of SAL translates into a consistent M2 amplitude and propagation speeds reduction throughout the domain. Results using the beta approximation, with an optimal domain-wide constant value of 1.5%, show a somewhat comparable impact in phase but opposite direction of the impact in amplitude, increasing amplitudes everywhere. In relative terms, both implementations lead to a reduction of the tidal representation error in comparison with the reference run without SAL, with the full SAL approach showing further impacted, improved results. Although the overprediction of tidal amplitudes and propagation speeds in the reference run might have additional sources like the lack of additional dissipative processes and non-considered bottom friction settings, results show an overall significant impact, most remarkable in tidal phases. After showing evidence of the SAL impact in regional models, the question of how to include this physical process in them in an efficient way arises, since SAL is a non-local effect and depends on the instantaneous water levels over the whole ocean, which is non-trivial to implement.     

晴天及阴天条件下WRF模式中几种边界层参数化方案的对比分析研究

利用WRF模式中5种常用边界层参数化方案(ACM2、YSU、BouLac、MYJ和MYNN2.5)及美国能源部大气辐射观测试验(ARM)寿县综合观测数据(2008年8—12月),对比分析了晴天及阴天条件下,不同参数化方案对典型农田下垫面气象要素及边界层结构的模拟效果,结果表明:(1)模式对于云层状况的模拟,非局地方案ACM2和YSU方案优于局地方案.(2)对于近地层气象要素,晴天和阴天条件下均是ACM2方案对于2 m温度和比湿的模拟效果最好,MYJ方案对于风向风速的模拟效果最好.(3)对于位温及比湿垂直廓线的模拟,晴天和阴天条件下均是非局地方案(ACM2和YSU)对白天的模拟效果优于局地方案;ACM2方案对夜间弱稳定层结和逆湿结构的模拟最优;(4)对于风速垂直廓线的模拟,白天不稳定条件下,晴天条件MYJ方案最优,阴天MYNN2.5方案的模拟效果最好;夜间弱稳定条件下,晴天条件ACM2方案与观测值之间的偏差最小,阴天YSU方案模拟效果最好;(5)总体而言,在对典型农田下垫面进行模拟时,晴天和阴天条件下均是ACM2方案更具优势.     

基于手机位置数据的四川九寨沟7.0级地震人流分析

2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级震后,浙江省地震局利用大数据采集了1031.99万条手机位置记录和4.46万个空间格网位置。本文结合24hr连续定位的手机数据,使用手机位置数据分别对九寨沟灾区人口从时间和地理维度上进行了量化分析,估计了多维人口分布的偏差,同时,探讨了剔除微观误差数据用户来估算灾区通讯基站退服分布的方法。该项工作为震后快速获取灾区人口实时动态分布提供了有效途径,同时也为地震灾害评估提供了较准确的依据。     

Equilibrium modeling of the beach profile on a macrotidal embayed low tide terrace beach

Eleven-year long time series of monthly beach profile surveys and hourly incident wave conditions are analyzed for a macrotidal Low Tide Terrace beach. The lower intertidal zone of the beach has a pluriannual cycle, whereas the upper beach profile has a predominantly seasonal cycle. An equilibrium model is applied to study the variation of the contour elevation positions in the intertidal zone as a function of the wave energy, wave power, and water level. When forcing the model with wave energy, the predictive ability of the equilibrium model is around 60% in the upper intertidal zone but decreases to 40% in the lower intertidal zone. Using wave power increases the predictive ability up to 70% in both the upper and lower intertidal zones. However, changes around the inflection point are not well predicted. The equilibrium model is then extended to take into account the effects of the tide level. The initial results do not show an increase in the predictive capacity of the model, but do allow the model free parameters to represent more accurately the values expected in a macrotidal environment. This allows comparing the empirical model calibration in different tidal environment. The interpretation of the model free parameter variation across the intertidal zone highlights the behavior of the different zones along the intertidal beach profile. This contributes to a global interpretation of the four model parameters for beaches with different tidal ranges, and therefore to a global model applicable at a wide variety sites.     

Did Lake Manly overflow at Ash Hill?

Near Ash Hill in the Mojave Desert, California, there is an impressive channel that is cut in bedrock. The channel is in a pass through which Lake Manly, the pluvial lake that occupied Death Valley, could have overflowed. Indeed, the channel has been attributed to such overflow. The pass, however, is 500 m above the highest shorelines of Lake Manly in Death Valley, and evidence from cores from dry lakes on either side of the pass does not support the overflow hypothesis. Despite its size, new field observations suggest that the channel was actually eroded by local runoff. Water from several tributaries collects into a single channel at this point, and the resulting discharge is apparently sufficient to cause retreat of a knickpoint from the downstream edge of the basalt flow into which the channel is cut. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.