Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.     

Catchment properties,function, and conceptual model representation: is there a correspondence?

This study investigates the possible correspondence between catchment structure, as represented by perceptual hydrological models developed from fieldwork investigations, and mathematical model structures, selected on the basis of reproducing observed catchment hydrographs. Three Luxembourgish headwater catchments are considered, where previous fieldwork suggested distinct flow‐generating mechanisms and hydrological dynamics. A set of lumped conceptual model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following parameter calibration, the model performance is examined in terms of predictive accuracy, quantification of uncertainty, and the ability to reproduce the flow–duration curve signature. Our key research question is whether differences in the performance of the conceptual model structures can be interpreted based on the dominant catchment processes suggested from fieldwork investigations. For example, we propose that the permeable bedrock and the presence of multiple aquifers in the Huewelerbach catchment may explain the superior performance of model structures with storage elements connected in parallel. Conversely, model structures with serial connections perform better in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments, which are characterized by impermeable bedrock and dominated by lateral flow. The presence of threshold dynamics in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments may favour nonlinear models, while the smoother dynamics of the larger Huewelerbach catchment were suitably reproduced by linear models. It is also shown how hydrologically distinct processes can be effectively described by the same mathematical model components. Major research questions are reviewed, including the correspondence between hydrological processes at different levels of scale and how best to synthesize the experimentalist's and modeller's perspectives. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Microstructural Inhomogeneity and Mechanical Anisotropy Associated with Bedding in Rothbach Sandstone

This study present the result of conventional triaxial tests conducted on samples of Rothbach sandstone cored parallel, oblique (at 45 degrees) and perpendicular to the bedding at effective pressures ranging from 5 to 250 MPa. Mechanical and microstructural data were used to determine the role of the bedding on mechanical strength and failure mode. We find that samples cored at 45 degrees to the bedding yield at intermediate level of differential stress between the ones for parallel and perpendicular samples at all effective pressures. Strain localization at high confining pressure (i.e., in the compactive domain) is observed in samples perpendicular and oblique to the bedding but not in samples cored parallel to the bedding. However, porosity reduction is comparable whether compactive shear bands, compaction bands or homogeneous cataclastic flow develop. Microstructural data suggest that (1) mechanical anisotropy is controlled by a preferred intergranular contact alignment parallel to the bedding and that (2) localization of compaction is controlled by bedding laminations and grain scale heterogeneity, which both prevent the development of well localized compaction features.     

Modeling flocculation in a hypertidal estuary

When fine particles are involved, cohesive properties of sediment can result in flocculation and significantly complicate sediment process studies. We combine data from field observations and state-of-the-art modeling to investigate and predict flocculation processes within a hypertidal estuary. The study site is the Welsh Channel located at the entrance of the Dee Estuary in Liverpool Bay. Field data consist of measurements from a fixed site deployment during 12–22 February 2008. Grain size, suspended sediment volume concentration, and current velocity were obtained hourly from moored instruments at 1.5 m above bed. Near-bottom water samples taken every hour from a research vessel are used to convert volume concentrations to mass concentrations for the moored measurements. We use the hydrodynamic model Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) coupled with the turbulence model General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and a sediment module to obtain three-dimensional distributions of suspended particulate matter (SPM). Flocculation is identified by changes in grain size. Small flocs were found during flood and ebb periods—and correlate with strong currents—due to breakup, while coarse flocs were present during slack waters because of aggregation. A fractal number of 2.4 is found for the study site. Turbulent stresses and particle settling velocities are estimated and are found to be related via an exponential function. The result is a simple semiempirical formulation for the fall velocity of the particles solely depending on turbulent stresses. The formula is implemented in the full three-dimensional model to represent changes in particle size due to flocculation processes. Predictions from the model are in agreement with observations for both settling velocity and SPM. The SPM fortnight variability was reproduced by the model and the concentration peaks are almost in phase with those from field data.     

Molecular evidence for life in the 3.5 billion year old Warrawoona chert

The biological origin of organic matter in the oldest siliceous sediments (cherts) is still debated. To address this issue, the insoluble organic matter (kerogen) was isolated from a chert of the Warrawoona group. The chemical structure of the kerogen was investigated through a combination of analytical techniques including solid-state ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance and pyrolysis. Although dominated by aromatic hydrocarbons, the pyrolysate comprises a homologous series of long chain aliphatic hydrocarbons characterized by odd-over-even carbon number predominance. This distribution is only consistent with a biological origin. As kerogen must be contemporaneous of the solidification of the chert, this observation should be regarded as an evidence for the presence of life on Earth, 3.5 By ago.     

Graphical tools based on Turc-Budyko plots to detect changes in catchment behaviour

Abstract

This paper aims at revisiting the use of non-dimensional representations for catchment change and model robustness analysis. As well as being helpful for catchment classification according to hydroclimatic conditions, the Turc-Budyko representation enables visualization of temporal changes in these conditions and/or modification of the hydrological behaviour of the catchment. This brings a new perspective to hydrological analysis, different from the classical time series plots, which helps when interpreting catchment functioning with respect to hydroclimatic constraints. These tools do not require statistical analyses of observed series and are therefore very simple to implement. Four case studies are considered here to illustrate the use of the Q/P = f(P/E_p) graph. When combined with the inter-annual Turc-Mezentsev formula, this visual framework enables anticipation of potential difficulties for models based on the same hypotheses, solely using the analysis of observed data.     

Beerkan multi-runs for characterizing water infiltration and spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties across scales

A method is presented for characterizing the spatial variability of water infiltration and soil hydraulic properties at the transect and field scales. The method involves monitoring a set of 10 Beerkan runs distributed over a 1-m length of soil, and running BEST (Beerkan estimation of soil transfer parameters) methods to derive hydraulic parameters. The Beerkan multi-runs (BMR) method provides a significant amount of data at the transect scale, allowing the determination of correlations between water infiltration variables and hydraulic parameters, and the detection of specific runs affected by preferential flow or water repellence. The realization of several BMRs at several transects on the same site allows comparison of the variation between locations (spatial variability at the field scale) and at the transect scale (spatial variability at the metre scale), using analysis of variance. From the results, we determined the spatial variability of water infiltration and hydraulic parameters as well as its characteristic scale (transect versus field).     

Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.     

Geochemical comparison between minettes and kersantites from the Western European Hercynian orogen: trace element and PbSrNd isotope constraints on their origin

Trace element and isotopic characteristics of late Carboniferous to early Permian minettes and kersantites have been determined. These lamprophyres have been sampled throughout the Western European Hercynian orogen, from Brittany to the west to Schwarzwald to the east. In spite of sharp petrological differences reflected by mineralogy and major element geochemistry, minettes and kersantites exhibit close identity with respect to trace element and isotopic features. These features comprise enrichment in incompatible elements, highCs/Rb and lowCe/Pb ratios, Ta and Ti relative depletion, high abundance in transition elements and highNi/Mg ratios. Pb isotope ratios are undistinguishable from those measured on Hercynian continental crust. Initial¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios are between0.5120 (ε_i −5) and0.5122 (ε_i −1) for minettes and kersantites whereas initial⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios vary between 0.7055–0.710 for minettes and 0.707–0.708 for kersantites. No simple mixing relations are visible on RbSr and SmNd isochron diagrams. The exceptional homogeneity of these geochemical characteristics along a 1000 km traverse does not allow for an hypothesis of enrichment through upper level assimilation and thus leads to propose that these rocks originated through melting of a mantle enriched by recycling of crustal material.