Trends in heat-related mortality in the United States, 1975–2004

This study addresses the long-term trends in heat-related mortality across 29 US metropolitan areas from 1975 to 2004 to discern the spatial patterns and temporal trends in heat vulnerability. Mortality data have been standardized to account for population trends, and seasonal and interannual variability. On days when a city experienced an “oppressive” air mass, mean anomalous mortality was calculated, along with the likelihood that oppressive days led to a mortality response at least one standard deviation above the baseline value. Results show a general decline in heat-related mortality from the 1970s to 1990s, after which the decline seems to have abated. The likelihood of oppressive days leading to significant increases in mortality has shown less of a decline. The number of oppressive days has stayed the same or increased at most metropolitan areas. With US homes near saturation in terms of air-conditioning availability, an aging population is still significantly vulnerable to heat events.     

PAH transport by sinking particles in the open Mediterranean Sea: a 1 year sediment trap study

One year time series of sinking particles were collected at two depths in the open Mediterranean Sea and analysed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). Average total PAH concentrations were 593+/-284 ng g(-1) at 250 m and 551 +/- 198 ng g(-1) at 2850 m. Total PAH fluxes averaged 73 +/- 58 ng m(-2) d(-1) at 250 m and 53 +/- 39 ng m(-2) d(-1) at 2850 m. Contamination levels and, thus, exposure of marine organisms to PAH are comparable in surface and deep waters. Deep waters appear as a significant, yet overlooked, PAH sink. PAH temporal patterns show noticeable seasonality. This is partly due to varying levels of specific components such as the winter increase of pyrolytic PAH. Downward transport processes and the nature of sinking particles also impact on PAH fluxes, as inferred during periods of increasing productivity. Different phase-associations and interactions with particulate organic carbon for low-MW fossil PAH and high-MW pyrolytic PAH influence their downward transport efficiency.     

Projected 21st-century changes to Arctic marine access

Climate models project continued Arctic sea ice reductions with nearly ice-free summer conditions by the mid-21st century. However, how such reductions will realistically enable marine access is not well understood, especially considering a range of climatic scenarios and ship types. We present 21st century projections of technical shipping accessibility for circumpolar and national scales, the international high seas, and three potential navigation routes. Projections of marine access are based on monthly and daily CCSM4 sea ice concentration and thickness simulations for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099 under 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m² radiative forcing scenarios. Results suggest substantial areas of the Arctic will become newly accessible to Polar Class 3, Polar Class 6, and open-water vessels, rising from ~54 %, 36 %, and 23 %, respectively of the circumpolar International Maritime Organization Guidelines Boundary area in the late 20th century to ~95 %, 78 %, and 49 %, respectively by the late 21st century. Of the five Arctic Ocean coastal states, Russia experiences the greatest percentage access increases to its exclusive economic zone, followed by Greenland/Denmark, Norway, Canada and the U.S. Along the Northern Sea Route, July-October navigation season length averages ~120, 113, and 103 days for PC3, PC6, and OW vessels, respectively by late-century, with shorter seasons but substantial increases along the Northwest Passage and Trans-Polar Route. While Arctic navigation depends on other factors besides sea ice including economics, infrastructure, bathymetry, and weather, these projections are useful for strategic planning by governments, regulatory agencies, and the global maritime industry to assess spatial and temporal ranges of potential Arctic marine operations in the coming decades.     

Temperature and precipitation responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a hierarchy of datasets with different levels of observational constraints

Climate Dynamics - El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability, affecting climate conditions over large areas of the globe. There are, however, substantial...     

A paleolimnological assessment of lake acidification in five Connecticut lakes

New England has received significant amounts of precipitation with a pH between 4.2 and 4.6. Paleolimnological studies based on siliceous microalgal remains support the hypothesis that some lakes in northern New England have acidified as a result of the acidic deposition. However, paleolimnological analyses from five software lakes in southern New England suggest that these lakes have not acidified in recent years. In all of the study lakes the inferred pH has remained relatively stable, and in two lakes the pH has actually increased slightly in recent years. Despite the relatively stable inferred pH reconstructions, significant shifts in species assemblages were observed in each lake, many of which are believed to correlate with land use changes. It is possible that effects of land use changes (e.g. increased urbanization) have masked potential effects of acid deposition.     

RUSLE applied in a GIS framework: Calculating the LS factor and deriving homogeneous patches for estimating soil loss

The RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) is integrated within a GIS framework to calculate soil loss spatially. For this module, algorithms and procedures were developed to derive the slope length factor (L) and steepness factor (S) from a DEM, then integrated with the R, K, C, and P factors to develop homogeneous patches (sub‐units) within each field or river basin. Soil loss is determined for each patch within a study unit, and then combined to determine the fields' or river basin's average annual and total soil loss. Two case studies are presented. The first case study, in central Massachusetts, compares estimated soil loss values obtained for individual fields using the Idrisi RUSLE module to USDA‐NRCS RUSLE field data. While soil loss results were similar, the RUSLE module allows fields to be partitioned into more similar units than practical in the field. This permits detailed spatial analysis of soil‐loss patterns. The second case study compares soil‐loss estimates for a catchment in southwestern Flanders, Belgium. This model–model comparison contrasts the results from the RUSLE module to the WATEM model—a grid cell based model based on the USLE/RUSLE but conceptualized in a multi‐flow context. Results between the predicted soil losses utilizing the two different approaches are significantly correlated. However, estimated soil losses are consistently higher for the WATEM model. This likely reflects the differences between how the two models compute L as well as the contribution of ephemeral gullies and flow convergence which are incorporated in WATEM but not in RUSLE.     

Geologically controlled bi-directional exchange of groundwater with a hypersaline lake in the Canadian prairies

Hypersaline lakes occur in hydrologically closed basins due to evaporitic enrichment of dissolved salts transported to the lakes by surface water and groundwater. At the hypersaline Lydden Lake in Saskatchewan, Canada, groundwater/lake-water interaction is strongly influenced by the geological heterogeneity of glacial deposits, whereby a highly permeable glaciofluvial sand/gravel deposit is underlain by glaciolacustrine deposits consisting of dense clay interspersed with silt/sand lenses. Pressure head distribution in a near shore area indicates a bi-directional flow system. It consists of topographically driven flow of fresh groundwater towards the lake in the sand/gravel aquifer and density-driven, landward flow of saline groundwater in the underlying glaciolacustrine deposits. Electrical resistivity tomography, and chemical and isotopic composition of groundwater clearly show the landward intrusion of saline water in the heterogeneous unit. The feasibility of bi-directional flow and transport is supported by numerical simulations of density-coupled groundwater flow and transport. The results suggest that the geologically controlled groundwater exchange processes have substantial influences on both inputs and outputs of dissolved minerals in hypersaline lakes in closed basins.     

Fluvial morphometry of supraglacial river networks on the southwest Greenland Ice Sheet

Extensive, complex supraglacial river networks form on the southwest Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface each melt season. These networks are the dominant pathways for surface meltwater transport on this part of the ice sheet, but their fluvial morphometry has received little study. This paper utilizes high-resolution (2 m) WorldView-1/2 images, digital elevation models, and GIS tools to present a detailed morphometric characterization (river number, river length, Strahler stream order, width, depth, bifurcation ratio, braiding index, drainage density, slope, and relief ratio) for 523 GrIS supraglacial river networks. A new algorithm is presented to determine Strahler stream order in supraglacial environments. Results show that (1) Supraglacial river networks are broadly similar to terrestrial landscapes in that they follow Horton’s laws (river number, mean river length, and slope versus stream order), widen downstream, and have comparable mean bifurcation ratios (3.7 ± 1.9) and braiding indices; (2) unlike terrestrial systems, supraglacial drainage densities (0.90–4.75 km/km²) have no correlation with elevation relief, but instead display a weakly inverse correlation with ice surface elevation; (3) both well-developed (e.g., fifth-order) and discrete (e.g., first-order) supraglacial river networks form on the ice sheet, with the latter associated with short flow distances upstream of a terminal moulin; (4) mean river flow widths increase substantially, but flow depths only modestly, with increasing stream order. Viewed collectively, the 523 supraglacial river networks studied here display fluvial morphometries both similar and dissimilar to terrestrial systems, with moulin capture an important physical process driving the latter.     

Examination of policies and MEAs commitment by SIDS for sustainable management of the Caribbean Sea

The Caribbean Sea hosts twenty-seven small island developing states (SIDS), some of which utilise their marine resources found in the Caribbean Sea for economic gains. Many of the economic activities such as tourism, shipping and industrial development are currently incompatible with a healthy and sustainable marine environment. Sewage, agricultural effluents and hydrocarbon pollution resulting from these economic activities have led to degradation of this large marine ecosystem. In an effort to address these issues; policies, programmes and multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) were initiated in order to regionalise the response efforts. These include efforts such the Cartagena Convention, the integrated watershed and coastal area management (IWCAM) initiative and pollution assessment among others. This paper reviews the regional responses by the SIDS and other agencies in dealing with pollution from land and marine-based activities and biodiversity loss via these initiatives.