Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reservoir description using dynamic parameterisation selection with a combined stochastic and gradient search

There is a correspondence between flow in a reservoir and large scale permeability trends. This correspondence can be derived by constraining reservoir models using observed production data. One of the challenges in deriving the permeability distribution of a field using production data involves determination of the scale of resolution of the permeability. The Adaptive Multiscale Estimation (AME) seeks to overcome the problems related to choosing the resolution of the permeability field by a dynamic parameterisation selection. The standard AME uses a gradient algorithm in solving several optimisation problems with increasing permeability resolution. This paper presents a hybrid algorithm which combines a gradient search and a stochastic algorithm to improve the robustness of the dynamic parameterisation selection. At low dimension, we use the stochastic algorithm to generate several optimised models. We use information from all these produced models to find new optimal refinements, and start out new optimisations with several unequally suggested parameterisations. At higher dimensions we change to a gradient-type optimiser, where the initial solution is chosen from the ensemble of models suggested by the stochastic algorithm. The selection is based on a predefined criterion. We demonstrate the robustness of the hybrid algorithm on sample synthetic cases, which most of them were considered insolvable using the standard AME algorithm.     

Spalling Experiments on Large Hard Rock Specimens

Specimens of coarse-grained Äspö diorite were axially compressed to observe stress-induced spalling. The specimens had a novel design characterized by two manufactured large radius notches on opposite sides. The tangential stress occurring in the notches aimed to represent the tangential loading around a circular opening. Fracture stages were monitored by acoustic emission measurements. Rock chips were formed similar to those found in situ, which indicates a similar fracture process. Slabs were cut out from the specimens and impregnated using a fluorescent material to visualize the cracks. The cracks were subsequently examined by the naked eye and by means of microscopy images, from which fracture paths could be identified and related to different minerals and their crystallographic orientations. The microscopy analyses showed how the stress field and the microstructure interact. Parallel cracks were formed 2–4 mm below the surface, sub-parallel to the direction of the maximum principal stress. The crack initiation, the roles of minerals such as feldspar, biotite and quartz and their grain boundaries and crystallographic directions are thoroughly studied and discussed in this paper. Scale effects, which relate to the stress gradient and microstructure, are discussed.     

EPR investigation of NO2 and CO2 − and other radicals in beryl

A number of different impurities are located in the open channels of natural beryl crystals. The rare Maxixe beryl contains an unusual amount of NO₂. The isoelectronic CO₂ ⁻ radical is found in the irradiated Maxixe-type beryl. The NO₂ radicals are distributed in the Be–Al plane of the crystal, with the nitrogen atom close to the oxygens of the beryl cavity wall. These oxygens repel the negative CO₂ ⁻ radical, which is located at the center of the beryl cavity and rotates around its O–O axis, which is parallel to the crystal c-axis. When there is a nearby alkali ion at the center of the beryl channel, it reorients the CO₂ ⁻ radical so that its bisector is parallel to the c-axis and points toward the positive ion. Different signals are analyzed for Li⁺, Na⁺, and another counter-ion, which probably is Cs⁺. The related NO₃ and CO₃ ⁻ radicals are the color centers in the investigated deep blue beryls. The slow decay of the color, which makes these beryls useless as gem stones, is related to the decay of the hydrogen atoms which are present in these crystals. Evidence is given that NO₃ is created in Maxixe beryl by a natural process, while CO₃ ⁻ in Maxixe-type beryl has been created by irradiation. The temperature dependence of the EPR signals of these two radicals was investigated, but a definitive proof that they rotate at the center of the beryl cavity could not be given. EPR signals from some other radicals in beryl have been observed and described.     

Late-Glacial and Early Holocene Environmental and Climatic Change at Lake Tambichozero, Southeastern Russian Karelia

High-resolution lithostratigraphy, mineral magnetic, carbon, pollen, and macrofossil analyses, and accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C measurements were performed in the study of a sediment sequence from Lake Tambichozero, southeastern Russian Karelia, to reconstruct late-glacial and early Holocene aquatic and terrestrial environmental changes. The lake formed ca. 14,000 cal yr B.P. and the area around the lake was subsequently colonized by arctic plants, forming patches of pioneer communities surrounded by areas of exposed soil. A minor rise in lake productivity and the immigration of Betula pubescens occurred ca. 11,500 cal yr B.P. The rise in summer temperatures probably led to increased melting of remnant ice and enhanced erosion. The distinct increase in lake productivity and the development of open Betula-Populus forests, which are reconstructed based on plant macrofossil remains, indicate stable soils from 10,600 cal yr B.P. onward. Pinus and Picea probably became established ca. 9900 cal yr B.P.     

Fifteen days of continuous activity survey at Stromboli volcano, Italy, in late September 2000: Doppler radar, seismicity, infrared, soil humidity, and mapping of the crater region

The intention of our study was to gain new insight into the complex interplay between different types of eruption of the Stromboli volcano by combining detailed field observation with different geophysical methods. We recorded more than 600 eruptions by use of continuous Doppler radar measurements. We detected the onset of the seismic precursor and the beginning of the visible eruption by use of seismic and infrared data. Two soil samples per day were used to monitor the effect of humidity on the eruptive style. We mapped the crater region as a reference base for the long-term morphological changes of the active region and for the exact positions of our measurement systems. Two distinct types of eruption were distinguished from each other on the basis of seismic and radar data - short, wide-angle Strombolian explosions and pulsating, sharp angle fountain-like eruptions. Data and visual observations imply that weather conditions significantly effect volcanic activity. We also interpret the intensification of eruptive activity during our field study as replenishment of the reservoir with a new batch of magma in late September 2000.     

The Barents Sea Ice Sheet — A model of its growth and decay during the last ice maximum

On the basis of geomorphological and sedimentological data, we believe that the entire Barents Sea was covered by grounded ice during the last glacial maximum. ¹⁴C dates on shells embedded in tills suggest marine conditions in the Barents Sea as late as 22 ka BP; and models of the deglaciation history based on uplift data from the northern Norwegian coast suggest that significant parts of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet calved off as early as 15 ka BP. The growth of the ice sheet is related to glacioeustatic fall and the exposure of shallow banks in the central Barents Sea, where ice caps may develop and expand to finally coalesce with the expanding ice masses from Svalbard and Fennoscandia.The outlined model for growth and decay of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet suggests a system which developed and existed under periods of maximum climatic deterioration, and where its growth and decay were strongly related to the fall and rise of sea level.     

Geoscientific R&D for high level radioactive waste disposal in Sweden — current status and future plans

SKB (Svensk Kärnbränslehantering AB) is responsible for all handling, transport and storage of the nuclear wastes outside the Swedish nuclear power stations. According to Swedish law, SKB is responsible for an R&D-programme needed to take care of the radwastes. The programme comprises, among others, a general supportive geo-scientific R&D and the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) for more in-situ specific tasks.

Sweden is geologically located in the Fennoscandian shield which is dominated by gneisses and granitoids of Precambrian age. The Swedish reference repository concept thus considers an excavated vault at ca. 500 m depth in crystalline rocks. In this concept (KBS-3), copper canisters with high level waste will be emplaced in deposition holes from a system of tunnels. Blocks of highly compacted swelling bentonite clay are placed in the holes leaving ample space for the canisters. At the final closure of the repository, the galleries are backfilled with a mixture of sand and bentonite. This repository design aims to make the disposal system as redundant as possible. Although the KBS-3 concept is the reference concept, alternative concepts and/or repository lay-outs are also studied. The main alternative, currently under development at SKB, is disposal in boreholes with depths of 4–5 km. The geoscientific research will to a great extent be guided by the demands posed by the performance and safety assessments, as well as the constuctability issues. Some main functions of the geological barrier are fundamental for the long-term safety of a repository. These are: bedrock mechanical stability, a chemically stable environment as well as a slow and stable groundwater flux. The main time-table for the final disposal of long-lived radioactive waste in Sweden foresees the final selection of the disposal system and site during the beginning of next decade.     

Coastal lagoons and beach ridges as complementary sedimentary archives for the reconstruction of Holocene relative sea‐level changes

Coastal lagoons and beach ridges are genetically independent, though non‐continuous, sedimentary archives. We here combine the results from two recently published studies in order to produce an 8000‐year‐long record of Holocene relative sea‐level changes on the island of Samsø, southern Kattegat, Denmark. The reconstruction of the initial mid‐Holocene sea‐level rise is based on the sedimentary infill from topography‐confined coastal lagoons (Sander et al., Boreas, 2015b). Sea‐level index points over the mid‐ to late Holocene period of sea‐level stability and fall are retrieved from the internal structures of a wide beach‐ridge system (Hede et al., The Holocene, 2015). Data from sediment coring, georadar and absolute dating are thus combined in an inter‐disciplinary approach that is highly reproducible in micro‐tidal environments characterised by high sediment supply. We show here that the commonly proximate occurrence of coastal lagoons and beach ridges allows us to produce seamless time series of relative sea‐level changes from field sites in SW Scandinavia and in similar coastal environments.     

The age of the martian meteorite Northwest Africa 1195 and the differentiation history of the shergottites

Samarium-neodymium isotopic analyses of unleached and acid-leached mineral fractions from the recently identified olivine-bearing shergottite Northwest Africa 1195 yield a crystallization age of 347 ± 13 Ma and an value of +40.1 ± 0.9. Maskelynite fractions do not lie on the Sm-Nd isochron and appear to contain a martian surface component with low ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios that was added during shock. The Rb-Sr system is disturbed and does not yield an isochron. Terrestrial Sr appears to have affected all of the mineral fractions, although a maximum initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.7016 is estimated by passing a 347 Ma reference line through the maskelynite fraction that is least affected by contamination. The high initial value and the low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio, combined with the geologically young crystallization age, indicate that Northwest Africa 1195 is derived from a source region characterized by a long-term incompatible-element depletion.The age and initial Sr and Nd isotopic compositions of Northwest Africa 1195 are very similar to those of Queen Alexandra Range 94201, indicating these samples were derived from source regions with similar Sr-Nd isotopic systematics. These similarities suggest that these two meteorites share a close petrogenetic relationship and might have been erupted from a common volcano. The meteorites Yamato 980459, Dar al Gani 476, Sayh al Uhaymir 005/008, and Dhofar 019 also have relatively old ages between 474 and 575 Ma and trace element and/or isotopic systematics that are indicative of derivation from incompatible-element-depleted sources. This suggests that the oldest group of meteorites is more closely related to one another than they are to the younger meteorites that are derived from less incompatible-element-depleted sources. Closed-system fractional crystallization of this suite of meteorites is modeled with the MELTS algorithm using the bulk composition of Yamato 980459 as a parent. These models reproduce many of the major element and mineralogical variations observed in the suite. In addition, the rare earth element systematics of these meteorites are reproduced by fractional crystallization using the proportions of phases and extents of crystallization that are calculated by MELTS. Other shergottites that demonstrate enrichments in incompatible-elements and have evolved Sr and Nd isotopic systematics have some geochemical systematics that are similar to those observed in the depleted group. Most notably, although they exhibit a very limited range of incompatible trace element and isotopic compositions, they have highly variable major element compositions. This is also consistent with evolution from a common mantle source region by variable amounts of fractional crystallization. If this scenario is correct, it suggests that the combined effects of source composition and fractional crystallization are likely to account for the major element, trace element, and isotopic diversity of all shergottites.