基于农户个体行为的珠江流域氮、磷营养盐控制政策情景分析

为揭示农户个体行为与流域农业非点源营养盐产生和控制政策之间的逻辑关系,以珠江流域为研究对象,采用系统动力学模型与多主体农户和农村环境管理模型耦合构建流域营养盐污染控制政策的情景分析方法,基于农户在化肥税和农药税组合型政策下的生产行为设计了基准情景、低化肥税情景、中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景4种具有代表性的情景方案,并在各种情景下定量描述流域营养盐对农业政策的响应和评估流域营养盐控制的优选政策方案.结果显示:从农业投入和产出的角度看,2030年低化肥税情景、中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景的化肥施用量相对基准情景分别减少了24.0%、39.8%和50.2%,农药使用量分别减少了27.6%、32.8%和37.4%,农作物产量分别减少了10.0%、16.3%和21.2%,畜禽养殖量分别增加了5.9%、7.5%和14.0%;2030年,基准情景、低化肥税情景、中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景的总氮入河量分别达到94.5、85.1、78.5和75.3万t,总磷入河量分别达到14.0、12.8、12.0和11.6万t;化肥税和农药税的组合型政策能够有效减少营养盐污染量,然而,中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景比低化肥税情景的边际效果小、经济成本高、农作物产出低和畜禽污染高,故低化肥税情景被认为是控制珠江流域营养盐污染的最优方案.     

珠江流域氮、磷营养盐入河量估算及预测

针对日益严重的流域营养盐污染问题,以珠江流域为例,采用系统动力学模型与多主体农户和农村环境管理模型耦合构建反映农户生产决策实际污染过程的流域氮、磷营养盐排放仿真系统,模拟2000—2030年不同污染源的营养盐产生、排放和进入河流的污染过程,分析其污染特征、影响因素和演变趋势.结果表明:在基准情境下,珠江流域总氮(TN)入河量从2000年的5.79×10~5t增加到2030年9.45×10~5t,在2027年达到峰值(9.53×10~5t);总磷(TP)入河量逐年递增,年均增长率为2.0%,从2000年的7.9×10~4t增加到2030年1.4×10~5t.在TN入河量中,种植业贡献最多,其次是城镇污水、养殖业和农村污水,2000—2030年期间年均贡献率相应为43.5%、32.5%、19.2%和4.9%.在TP入河量中,2000—2030年种植业、养殖业、城镇污水和农村污水的年均贡献比例分别为35.6%、28.8%、21.5%和14.1%;2000—2010年,养殖业为第一污染源,其次是种植业、城镇污水和农村污水;2011年种植业的贡献比例(31.6%)开始超过养殖业(30.8%)成为首要污染.研究显示,流域营养盐排放仿真系统可为营养盐控制提供技术支持和理论依据.     

新疆吐哈盆地东北缘早二叠世安加拉植物群及古气候条件

地处吐哈盆地东北缘的哈密天山乡二道沟一带下二叠统依尔希土组产出大量植物化石,经鉴定有5属13种。该植物群以科达类为主,几乎全为安加拉植物区的常见分子,建立了Angaropteridium-Noeggerathiopsis-Nephropsis组合,经对比确定其时代为早二叠世。利用植物群组成及植物化石叶相统计分析,推断吐哈盆地早二叠世处于相对温暖湿润、具有明显波动的温带气候,存在着周期性的干-湿转变及年度的季节性变化。     

Extraction of altered minerals from Aster remote sensing data in Gongchangling iron deposit of Liaoning,China

The precision of Aster data is higher than that of Landsat series of multispectral remote sensing data, which can more accurately reveal the distribution of altered minerals. It plays an important role in prospecting, but it is rarely used in areas with complex terrain and high vegetation coverage. Based on this purpose, this study used Aster remote sensing data, and took Gongchangling iron deposit as a case study. It combined the mineral spectrum theory and the basic geologic data of the study ...     

Spatial Differentiation Patterns of Agricultural Industry Demonstration Towns in China

Industrial prosperity is the foundation of rural revitalization. Taking the 552 agricultural industry demonstration towns (AIDTs) as the research object, this paper explores the spatial layout and influence mechanism of AIDTs in China. The research is of great significance to the layout of China’s agricultural industry and the revitalization of the rural agricultural industry. This paper adopts the ArcGIS 10.3 spatial analysis method to reveal the spatial distribution characteristics, density characteristics, spatial complexity, and spatial correlation of AIDTs in China. (1) The spatial distribution of AIDTs tends to be condensed distribution with remarkable spatial differentiation. (2) The kernel density of China’s AIDTs is characterized by multiple independent mononuclear centers, secondary centered bands, and sporadic distribution. (3) The AIDTs system is characterized by scaleless areas, significant fractal features, and complexity of spatial structure. (4) The AIDTs belong to positive spatial correlation present different patterns of cold and hot spots with the more concentrated spatial distribution. The research indicates that the spatial distribution pattern of China’s AIDTs is highly consistent with the distribution of major grain-producing areas. It is mainly determined by factors such as good natural conditions, convenient water resources, and good regional advantages and continuously implemented agricultural industry reform. With the “three changes” reform (i.e. change resources into assets, funds into shares, and farmers into shareholders) proposed by Liupanshui City in Guizhou Province in March 2015 as a strategy, take the agricultural industry scale development model and adheres to the guidance of the agricultural industry to contribute to rural revitalization. The research results are of essential guiding significance for China’s agricultural industry reform, agricultural economic development, rural revitalization, and the characteristics of agricultural industry layout.     

Background Characteristics of Atmospheric CO_2 and the Potential Source Regions in the Pearl River Delta Region of China

Mole fractions of atmospheric CO₂(XCO₂) have been continuously measured from October 2014 to March 2016 at the Guangzhou Panyu Atmospheric Composition Site(23.00°N,113.21°E;140 m MSL) in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)region using a cavity ring-down spectrometer.Approximately 66.63%,19.28%,and 14.09% of the observed values were filtered as background,pollutant source,and sink due to biospheric uptake,respectively,by applying a robust local regression procedure.Their correspondin...     

徐州农业生产面临气象灾害风险的评估

根据徐州市历年来各种气象灾害对农业造成影响的资料, 应用信息扩散的模糊数学理论模型, 对徐州地区洪涝、干旱、风雹和霜冻等气象灾害进行风险评估, 并对客观风险评估值进行分析, 得到与历史上实际灾害发生的概率较吻合的结论, 使用这种方法为我们开展气象灾害风险评估提供了客观的数据。     

ShapeFile格式文件写入方法研究

针对写ShapeFile文件所涉及的数据类型、赋值方法较少的现状,详细分析坐标文件、属性文件及索引文件中所包含的内容,并在VC6.0中实现上述3种文件的写入。     

地面三维激光扫描技术应用于井架整体监测研究

主要论述井架点云数据获取、坐标数据转换、冗余信息去噪等方法,将不同时期获取的点云数据分别建立三角网模型,通过模型整体对比获取井架的变形量,分析了三维激光扫描技术在煤矿井架变形监测的可行性。     

逸气揭皮构造——一种和水合物相关的沉积构造形式

本文根据笔者在鄂霍次克海的调查资料,介绍了一种新的沉积构造形式。通常的海底沉积物柱状样品切面是平整、光滑的,本文将一种粗糙、不平整的海底沉积物柱状样品切面构造称之为逸气揭皮构造。认为逸气揭皮构造是由于沉积物所处物理条件的改变,特别是压力降低,致使本身所含气体,以及所含水合物分解形成的气体体积迅速膨胀、气体逃逸,使沉积物发育大量裂纹,从而改变了沉积物原来的排列方式而形成的一种新的次生物理构造。逸气揭皮构造是沉积物中大量含气的标志。沉积物中含有的气体可以是天然气水合物分解形成的。这样逸气揭皮构造和天然气水合物密切相关。或者可以说,逸气揭皮构造是沉积地层发育水合物的一个标志。