Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation over 220 Years （1777-1997）

In this study, long-term (1777–1997) precipitation data for Seoul, Korea, wetness indices from eastern China, and modern observations are used to identify the interdecadal variability in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation over the last 220 years. In the East Asian monsoon region, two long-term timescales of dry–wet transitions for the interdecadal variability and quasi-40-and quasi-60-year timescales are dominant in the 220-year precipitation data of Seoul, as well as in the wetness indices over China....     

西太平洋热带海域厄尔尼诺年和非厄尔尼诺年期间湍流通量输送的不同特征

本文根据海洋科考船“实验三号”1986—1989年在西太平洋热带海域、使用系留气艇探测系统观测的140多次温度、湿度和风等廓线资料,利用Monin-Obukhov相似理论的半经验通量-廓线关系,计算给出该海域的动量通量M(特别是曳力系数C_D)、感热通量H_S和潜热通量H_L以及海表温度T_S和Richardson数Ri.结果表明:它们有明显的年际变化;感热通量H_S和潜热通量H_L与海表温度T_S呈明显正相关;曳力系数C_D与风速和Richardson数Ri也有明显相关关系,当风速一定时,C_D值随着Ri值的减少(Ri<0时的不稳定情况)而增加,而当Ri值不变时,C_D值随着风速值的增加而增加.     

地面资料在侦测暴雨天气过程中的应用

利用地面常规观测资料和自动站加密温度资料以及卫星云图资料,分析了2005年7月6—7日和7月9—10日发生在江淮流域及其附近的两次暴雨过程的地面要素分布特征,发现强降水带分布在非锋性斜压带和斜压槽附近。然后利用NCEP再分析资料,用第二类热成风螺旋度和非地转湿矢量诊断解释了非锋性斜压带和斜压槽产生强降水的动力机制,结果表明在地面非锋性斜压带和斜压槽处易发生锋生和斜压现象,从而诱发强降水。     

A Closure Study of Aerosol Hygroscopic Growth Factor during the 2006 Pearl River Delta Campaign

Measurements of aerosol physical, chemical and optical parameters were carried out in Guangzhou, China from 1 July to 31 July 2006 during the Pearl River Delta Campaign. The dry aerosol scattering coefficient was measured using an integrating nephelometer and the aerosol scattering coefficient for wet conditions was determined by subtracting the sum of the aerosol absorption coefficient, gas scattering coefficient and gas absorption coefficient from the atmospheric extinction coefficient. Following this, the aerosol hygroscopic growth factor, f(RH), was calculated as the ratio of wet and dry aerosol scattering coefficients. Measurements of size-resolved chemical composition, relative humidity (RH), and published functional relationships between particle chemical composition and water uptake were likewise used to find the aerosol scattering coefficients in wet and dry conditions using Mie theory for internally- or externally-mixed particle species [(NH₄)₂SO₄, NH₄NO₃, NaCl, POM, EC and residue]. Closure was obtained by comparing the measured f(RH) values from the nephelometer and other in situ optical instruments with those computed from chemical composition and thermodynamics. Results show that the model can represent the observed f(RH) and is appropriate for use as a component in other higher-order models.     

三维变分同化雷达资料暴雨个例试验

采用中国新一代数值预报模式及其同化系统开展雷达资料的三维变分同化和数值模拟研究.通过一次暴雨个例的对比试验,结果表明:不考虑垂直运动影响的情况下,仅同化多普勒雷达径向风资料可以增加初始场中的中小尺度系统信息,并在一定程度上改善预报开始阶段的降水;同化由反射率因子导出的垂直速度、雨水混合比并令上升区饱和,可以较大改善降水预报结果;联合同化径向速度和反射率因子资料将得到它们的共同影响.模拟的β中尺度对流系统6 h的演变过程与观测十分一致,基本消除了旋转加强现象.发展旺盛阶段的对流单体南北方向范围约50 km,最大上升速度位于500 hPa附近,超过3.0 m/s;雨水最大含量在400 hPa附近,超过5.0 g/kg;云水最大值位于600 hPa,约0.5 g/kg;造成的降水强度可达30 mm/h,具有明显的β中尺度系统的特征.初始场中水汽是否达到β中尺度降水维持所需条件是至关重要的,如果初始场中水汽条件较差,即使含有云水、雨水、垂直速度的信息,这些信息也会很快消亡,难以维持下去;此外,雷达资料的质量控制也是十分重要的.     

危害后季稻的秋季低温预报方法

本文以农谚为线索,采用多张概率图作为综合因子,用逐步回归的方法试作了危害后季稻的秋季低温预报指标,希望通过这些指标能比较早而准确地预报出秋季低温到来的迟早,供领导部门参考,以便采取措施,避免或减轻低温带来的危害。本指标已在实际中使用四年,预报与实况均符合,取得了一定的服务效果。     

两种不同减排情景下21世纪气候变化的数值模拟

利用国家气候中心最新发展的气候系统模式BCC-CSM1.0模拟了相对于B1排放情景,两种不同减排情景(De90和De07,表示按照B1情景排放到2012年,之后线性递减,至2050年时CO_2排放水平分别达到1990和2007年排放水平一半的情景)对全球和中国区域气候变化的影响.结果表明:两种减排情景下模式模拟的全球平均地表气温在21世纪40年代以后明显低于Bl情景,比减排情景浓度低于B1的时间延迟了20年左右;尽管De90减排情景在2050年所达到的稳定排放水平低于De07情景,但De90情景下的全球增温在2070年以后才一致低于De07情景,这种滞后町能与耦合系统(主要足海洋)的惯性有关;至21世纪末,De90和De07情景下的全球增温幅度分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.2℃;从全球分布来看,B1情景下21世纪后30年的增温幅度在北半球高纬度和极地地区最大,减排情景能够显著减少这些地区的增温幅度,减排程度越大,则减少越多;在中国区域,B1情景下21世纪末平均增温比全球平均高约1.2℃,减排情景De90和De07分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.3℃,中国北方地区增温幅度高于南方及沿海地区,减排情景能够显著减小中国西部地区的增温幅度;B1情景下21世纪后30年伞球增温在冬季最高,De90和De07情景分别能够降低各个季节全球升温幅度的17%和10%左右.     

A New Strategy for Solving a Class of Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems Related to Weather and Climate Predictability

There are three common types of predictability problems in weather and climate, which each involve different constrained nonlinear optimization problems: the lower bound of maximum predictable time, the upper bound of maximum prediction error, and the lower bound of maximum allowable initial error and parameter error. Highly efficient algorithms have been developed to solve the second optimization problem. And this optimization problem can be used in realistic models for weather and climate to study the upper bound of the maximum prediction error. Although a filtering strategy has been adopted to solve the other two problems, direct solutions are very time-consuming even for a very simple model, which therefore limits the applicability of these two predictability problems in realistic models. In this paper, a new strategy is designed to solve these problems, involving the use of the existing highly efficient algorithms for the second predictability problem in particular. Furthermore, a series of comparisons between the older filtering strategy and the new method are performed. It is demonstrated that the new strategy not only outputs the same results as the old one, but is also more computationally efficient. This would suggest that it is possible to study the predictability problems associated with these two nonlinear optimization problems in realistic forecast models of weather or climate.     

基于奇异谱分析的南方涛动指数短期气候预测试验

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) time series is analyzed by means of the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method with 60-month window length. Two major oscillatory pairs are found in the series whose pe riods are quasi-four and quasi-two years respectively. The auto-regressive model, which is developed on the basis of the Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analy sis, is fitted to each of the 9 leading components including the oscillatory pairs. The prediction of SOI with the 36-month lead is obtained from the reconstruction of these extrapolated series. Correlation coefficient between predicted series and 5 months running mean of observed series is up to 0.8. The model can successfully predict the peak and duration of the strong ENSO event from 1997 to 1998. It＇s also shown that the proper choice of reconstructed components is the key to improve the model prediction.     

Cloud Variations under Subtropical High Conditions

The cloud variations under subtropical high(STH) conditions during summers over a ten-year period are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.The results reveal that clouds mainly experience an isolated evolution in the STHs,which is designated in this study by the 1540 gpm geopotential lines at 850 hPa.In the STH domain throughout the Northern Hemisphere,the average amount of total clouds exceeds 30%.Low clouds dominate in the STH domain,contributing over 60%of total cloud amount within the Pacific subtropical high and over 40%within the Atlantic subtropical high.The prevalence of low clouds in above regions is determined by the circulation pattern around 150°-180°E and 850 hPa,which suppresses both the upward development of the cloud tops and the water vapor divergences near the surface.Furthermore,clouds present great geographical incoherence within the STH domain.In the eastern STHs,the amount of middle and low clouds increases to peak in the early morning and decreases to a trough in the afternoon,while the amount of high clouds remains stable throughout the day.Conversely,in the western STHs,the diurnal amplitude of low and middle clouds is less than three,while high clouds dramatically reach the maximum in the afternoon and drop to the minimum in the evening.Among the nine cloud categories,stratocumulus clouds with greater optical thickness account for the most under STH conditions,no matter their occurrence or amount,causing more shortwave cloud radiative forcing to cool the local atmosphere and surface as a consequence.