The impact of ecosystem functional type changes on the La Plata Basin climate

In this paper, the effects of land cover changes on the climate of the La Plata Basin in southern South America are investigated using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model configured on a 30/10km two-way interactive nested grid. To assess the regional climate changes resulting from land surface changes, the standard land cover types are replaced by time-varying Ecosystem Functional Types (EFTs), which is a newly devised land-cover classification that characterizes the spatial and interannual variability of surface vegetation dynamics. These variations indicate that natural and anthropogenic activities have caused changes in the surface physical parameters of the basin, such as albedo and roughness length, that contributed to regional climate changes. EFTs are obtained from functional attributes of vegetation computed from properties of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to represent patches of the land surface with homogeneous energy and gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Four simulations are conducted, each experimental period ranging from September to November in two contrasting years, 1988 and 1998. The influence of an identical EFT change on the surface heat fluxes, 2-m temperature and humidity, 10-m winds, convective instabilities and large-scale moisture fluxes and precipitation are explored for 1988 (a dry year) and 1998 (a wet year). Results show that the surface and atmospheric climate has a larger response to the same EFT changes in a dry year for 2-m temperature and 10-m wind; the response is larger in a wet year for 2-m water vapor mixing ratio, convective available potential energy, vertically integrated moisture fluxes and surface precipitation. For EFTs with high productivity and a weak seasonal cycle, the nearsurface temperature during the spring of 1988 and 1998 increased by as much as 1℃ in the central and western portions of La Plata Basin. Additionally, for higher productivity EFTs, precipitation differences were generally positive in both dry and wet years, although the patterns are not uniform and exhibit certain patchiness with drier conditions.     

The evaluation of the probability of rock wedge failure using the point estimate method

In a probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability, the Monte Carlo simulation technique has been widely used to evaluate the probability of slope failure. While the Monte Carlo simulation technique has many advantages, the technique requires complete information of the random variables in stability analysis; however, in practice, it is difficult to obtain complete information from a field investigation. The information on random variables is usually limited due to the restraints of sampling numbers. This is why approximation methods have been proposed for reliability analyses. Approximation methods, such as the first-order second-moment method and the point estimate method, require only the mean and standard deviation of the random variable; therefore, it is easy to utilize when the information is limited. Usually, a single closed form of the formula for the evaluation of the factor of safety is needed for an approximation method. However, the commonly used stability analysis method of wedge failure is complicated and cumbersome and does not provide a simple equation for the evaluation of the factor of safety. Consequently, the approximation method is not appropriate for wedge failure. In order to overcome this limitation, a simple equation, which is obtained from the maximum likelihood estimation method for wedge failure, is utilized to calculate the probability of failure. A simple equation for the direct estimation of the safety factors for wedge failure has been empirically derived from failed and stable cases of slope, using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The developed technique has been applied to a practical example, and the results from the developed technique were compared to the results from the Monte Carlo simulation technique.     

GEOLOGY OF KENKOU ON THE HUNAN-KWANGTUNG BORDER AND ITS BEARING TO THE OROGENY OF THE NANLING RANGES

INTRODUCTION In the winter of 1932 and the spring of 1933, the Nanling Mountain ranges covering the borders of Hunan, Kwangtung, Kwangsi and Kueichou were studied by the members of the National Research Institute of Geology,     

淡水双壳类壳体碳同位素研究:以河蚬(corbicula fluminea,Müller 1774)为例

双壳类壳体碳酸盐(文石)稳定同位素组成已被广泛地用于古气候和古环境重建研究中,但是双壳类壳体碳同位素组成所指示的气候和环境意义一直是争议的问题.对双壳类河蚬(corbicula fluminea)进行了室内养殖,并选取两个壳体样品(壳高,A=13 mm,B=9mm),测定其生长部分壳体和生长期间水体碳同位素,研究表明,随着水体碳同位素的升高(δ13CDIC由-5.24‰升至1.41‰),两壳体碳同位素也随之升高,表明水体对壳体碳同位素的影响;δ13CA分布范围为-4.76‰～2.09‰,δ13CB为-8.49‰～2.89,壳体A和B碳同位素均比预测平衡值偏负,表明壳体在形成过程中利用了新陈代谢产生的富集12C的CO2.根据计算壳体A在实验中沉淀部分壳体利用新陈代谢碳的比例(M值)为24%～43%,平均值为33%;壳体B为33%～75%,平均值为58%.M值随生物的生长呈下降变化,这说明在实验中河蚬主要是通过增加对DIC的吸收和利用来满足壳体生长对物质量增加的需求.     

Sensitivity evaluation of the flash flood warning system introduced to ungauged small mountainous basins in Korea

This study evaluates the uncertainty involved in the determination of the flash flood guidance(FFG) of the flash flood warning system(FFWS) for a small mountainous region(FFWS_MR)in Korea. The sensitivity is evaluated both at each step to determine the FFG and for all steps together. The results show that the relative difference of the FFG is about 50% of the current system, most of which involves the channel width. Especially, the use of some specific empirical equations to estimate the major parameters results in a considerable amount of the relative difference of the FFG. In addition, though only four basins were field-surveyed, it is found that the indirect estimation of the major parameters always introduces some amount of additional uncertainty. In conclusion, accurate estimation of the major parameters must be the most important procedure to derive an accurate FFG, among which the channel cross-section at the exit of the basin lies at the center.     

Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions

One of the most challenging decisions in the domain of natural hazards is whether to evacuate a densely populated region around a volcano that appears to threaten a major eruption. The economic expense of mass evacuation is high, yet the cost in possible human casualties is potentially much greater if an evacuation is not called, or is called late. To assist officials in weighing these considerations, probabilistic criteria for evacuation decision-making are developed within a cost-benefit analysis framework. It is shown that such criteria may be quantitatively expressed in terms of the proportion of the evacuees owing their lives to the evacuation call. The underlying principles are illustrated with some case studies where eruption probabilities have been estimated.     

《坤輿万国全图》与《利玛窦中国札记》中外译本考疑

金尼阁编译的《利玛窦中国札记》多种欧洲文字版本之间存在翻译差异,而300年后出版的英译本和中译本与原文存在严重错漏。600页的札记,利玛窦只用不到两页的篇幅叙述测绘《坤輿万国全图》一事,连实际比例尺的描述也不清楚。利玛窦承认没有见过其他的版本,"六幅版"地图出现在南京或北京,个别欧洲文字翻译版本不一,《坤輿万国全图》究竟是在南京还是北京完成的也有疑问。《利玛窦中国札记》用的是中国传统的测绘术语,指出地图的错误是针对西方地图而不是中国地图。《坤輿万国全图》中一半的中文地名,当时欧洲地图没有对应。1593年,利玛窦尚未制作《坤輿万国全图》,"六幅版"中文世界地图已出现在南京。因此,《坤輿万国全图》原本早已存在,《坤輿万国全图》应是郑和时代(1405—1433)大航海的成果,中国的地图学,不是西学东渐,甚至有可能是中国的世界地理与地图学流传到西方。世界地图史应该还原中国对地理大发现与地图学的贡献。