Statistical analysis of a global photochemical model of the atmosphere

This is a study of the sensitivity of model results (atmospheric content of main gas constituents and radiative characteristics of the atmosphere) to errors in emissions of a number of atmospheric gaseous pollutants. Groups of the model variables most dependent on these errors are selected. Two variants of emissions are considered: one without their evolution and the other with their variation according to the IPCC scenario. The estimates are made on the basis of standard statistical methods for the results obtained with the detailed onedimensional radiative—photochemical model of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO). Some approaches to such estimations with models of higher complexity and to the solution of the inverse problem (i.e., the estimation of the necessary accuracy of external model parameters for obtaining the given accuracy of model results) are outlined.     

Particle-bound phosphorus along an urbanized coastal plain estuary

The distribution of particle-bound phosphorus in the suspended sediment of the Delaware Estuary was examined with a sequential chemical leaching technique. The phosphorus content of particles was highest in the tidal river (140–250 μmol g⁻¹) near major anthropogenic inputs. Despite this enrichment of river particles with phosphorus, suspended particles within the salinity gradient had a phosphorus content more similar to the world's average. Sequential chemical leaches revealed that particulate phosphorus was associated with organic matter, aluminum oxides, iron oxides, and apatite in all areas of the estuary. However, ‘excess’ particle-bound phosphorus in the tidal river was associated mainly with iron oxides (27%), aluminum oxides (23%), and organic matter (50%). Within the salinity gradient, particulate phosphorus associated with iron oxides, aluminum oxides, and apatite all decreased with increasing salinity. Estuarine mixing was simulated to determine whether the observed decreases in particle-bound phosphorus pools in field samples were due to release into solution. During simulated mixing, particulate phosphorus associated with iron and aluminum oxides decreased, but no change was observed in apatite-bound phosphorus. The results of the mixing study combined with the observed particle-bound phosphorus distributions suggest that phosphate concentrations along the Delaware Estuary may be partially ‘buffered’ by aluminum and iron oxide phases.     

Precise positioning for near-bottom equipment using a relay transponder

The Marine Physical Laboratory of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography has developed an acoustic relay transponder for precise relative positioning of near-bottom instruments and geologic sampling devices. Although specifically designed to position equipment lowered on standard wire ropes without a need to maintain direct electrical contact with the surface ship, the relay transponder may be used to track free vehicles, such as deep submersibles, from the surface. The relay transponder is positioned relative to an array of bottom-anchored acoustic transponders. It is interrogated acoustically from the surface ship; it then sequentially interrogates the bottom transponders which, in turn, reply to the ship. From the measurement of the total travel time (ship to relay transponder to bottom transponder to ship) and assuming, or knowing, the sound velocity of the water, we obtain a relayed range measurement. These relayed ranges, used in conjunction with ship to bottom-transponder ranges, allow us to calculate the position of the relay transponder. A recent application of this technique is described in which several gravity core samples from the crest of the Horizon Guyot were positioned with respect to the detailed bathymetry and the geology within the area. The estimated error in positioning the samples is less than 20 m inside a navigational net extending over 100 km².Contribution of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, new series.     

Atmospheric forcing of fine-sand transport on a low-energy inner shelf: south-central Louisiana,USA

Hydrodynamic and sediment transport measurements from instrumentation deployed during a 54-day winter period at two sites on the Louisiana inner shelf are presented. Strong extratropical storms, with wind speeds of 7.8 to 15.1 m s^-1, were the dominant forcing mechanism during the study. These typically caused mean oscillatory flows and shear velocities about 33% higher than fair weather (averaging 12.3 and 3.2 cm s^-1 at the landward site, and 11.4 and 2.7 cm s^-1 at the seaward site, respectively). These responses were coupled with mean near-bottom currents more than twice as strong as during fair weather (10.3 and 7.5 cm s^-1 at the landward and seaward sites, respectively). These flowed in approximately the same direction as the veering wind, causing a net offshore transport of fine sand. Weak storms were responsible for little sediment transport whereas during fair weather, onshore sand transport of approximately 25-75% of the storm values appears to have occurred. This contradicts previous predictions of negligible fair-weather sediment movement on this inner shelf.     

Primary production and plankton stocks in the Pacific Ocean and their seasonal variation according to remote sensing and field observations

Data collected from 20 years of observations by the P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (about 250 comprehensive ecosystem stations) are summarized to evaluate the primary production and biomass of the principal groups of plankton in the Pacific Ocean. The stations were classified into geographical regions according to satellite determined criteria. The areas of these regions were evaluated according to CZCS data from 1978 to 1986. The total value of primary production was evaluated as 26·9 Gt C year⁻¹. Taking the “bottle effect” correction into account, this value may be as high as 45.6 Gt C year⁻¹. Total biomass values of phytoplankton (134 Mt C), bacteria (86 Mt C), protozoa (26 Mt C) and mesoplankton (184 Mt C) were also calculated. Seasonal variabilities of all these values were remarkably insignificant.     

Simulation ABC Model of Consumption of Natural Resources

The problem of simulation of possible scenarios of the development of processes running in ecological economic systems is studied as a part of the general problem of control over natural economic complexes. The consumption of mineral, food, and ecological resources is regarded as credits given by the society to the producer and then refunded as a part of his gains. If this nature-protective tax does not compensate the damage to the environment caused by production, then the debt of the producer (called accumulated credit) appears and, finally, the process of consumption of the resources is terminated. A universal simulation model is constructed by using a new method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC method). We present basic concepts of this method and some examples of application of the simulation model to the analysis of various scenarios of consumption of marine bioresources under variable economic conditions for a marine environment with variable assimilation capacity.     

Reversing Water Exchange Patterns at the Entrance to a Semiarid Coastal Lagoon

Water velocity and density profiles were obtained in late-spring and late-winter to document reversing mean circulation patterns at the entrance to a semiarid coastal lagoon, the Bay of Guaymas, in the Gulf of California, Mexico. The lagoon is shallow but the bathymetry at its entrance is similar to that of temperate estuaries with an asymmetrically positioned channel flanked by shoals. In late-spring the mean circulation at the entrance to the lagoon was driven by horizontal density gradients that arose from excess evaporation over precipitation in the area as evidenced by water density profiles. The lagoon exported relatively warm (25·8 °C) and salty (36·2) water to the Gulf of California through the channel. This export was consistent with inverse estuarine circulation influenced by bathymetry. In late-winter, the circulation at the entrance of the lagoon was mostly driven by wind stress that blew from the northwest, roughly along the main axis of the lagoon. Relatively cool (16·0) °C) and less salty (35·1) water from the Gulf of California was driven into the lagoon within the channel. Density gradients inside the lagoon seem to have played a secondary role in driving the circulation. The late-winter circulation was then estuarine-like, with outflow in the direction of the wind over the shallow areas and a compensatory inflow appearing in the channel as expected from theory of wind-driven flow over bathymetry. This estuarine-like circulation developed despite the lack of measurable freshwater input to the lagoon and was the opposite to that observed in late-spring. These observations then document a reversal in water exchange patterns from season to season in a semiarid coastal lagoon. The observations also constitute one of the few reported examples of flow over shoals driven in the same direction as the wind stress with a compensatory flow in the channel.